Tony Calvin: Here Comes a good each-way bet for the Hungerford

Tony Calvin
11 August 2015

Tony has his eye on a 10/1 chance at Newbury this Saturday

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A number of good quality races on the horizon means plenty to discuss for Tony Calvin in his latest antepost column, with a 10/1 chance for the Hungerford Stakes taking his fancy...

"If the forecast rain materialises and the ground rides on the easy side, or worse, then the strong-travelling Here Comes When could find himself in his optimum conditions over 7f on Saturday. And he is just about the form horse in the field at these weights, too, for all it is a very tight and competitive race as it stands."

Andrew Balding was interviewed on ATR at Windsor on Monday night and I was bit surprised to hear him not fully commit Here Comes When to the Hungerford Stakes at Newbury on Saturday.

He said that the horse was still in the Celebration Mile too and a decision was still to be made where he runs next. But the Goodwood race is another fortnight away and, if the weather forecast for Thursday and Friday is correct, then I can't believe that the owners and Balding won't allow the horse to take his chance at the weekend.

So he rates a very fair each-way bet at 10/1 on the Betfair Sportsbook, as I think the race could cut up if the rain really gets into the ground.

Now, regular readers of this column will know that I wouldn't be one to rely too heavily on meteorologists but there does seem to be a consensus among weather sites that Newbury is in for a fair bit of rain towards the end of the week, and that will play very much to Here Comes When's strengths.

He won on fast ground on his debut but since then all his best efforts have come on good ground or worse, with his best winning efforts reserved for soft conditions.

His last three victories have come in soft ground, most recently when beating Cable Bay by a length despite carrying a 4lb penalty at Newmarket last October, and he wasn't far off that level of form when beaten under four lengths behind Solow in the Sussex Stakes last time.

That was a substandard renewal in terms of depth but it was obviously a big step up on his poor run on suitably quick ground at Ascot previously, and he has run well on his two starts on this track, most recently when a good sixth to Night Of Thunder in a Lockinge that worked out pretty well.

Okay, it wasn't a vintage Lockinge but in the context of this Group 2 prize - and Here Comes When is un-penalised for his two wins at this level - it reads well.

The winner has gone off the boil but Toormore, favourite in most lists for this race but who could possibly go elsewhere, has won the Lennox Stakes since, the third Arod chased home Solow at Goodwood, and the fifth Cable Bay won a Group 3 at Haydock. And further down the field the likes of Top Notch Tonto and Master Carpenter have also won decent prizes, subsequently.

If the forecast rain materialises and the ground rides on the easy side, or worse, then the strong-travelling Here Comes When could find himself in his optimum conditions over 7f on Saturday. And he is just about the form horse in the field at these weights, too, for all it is a very tight and competitive race as it stands.

***

The Great St Wilfrid at Ripon on Saturday looks a bit of a minefield at this stage.

I am interested in a couple towards the bottom of the weights but they need a fair few to come out as it stands, so I'll keep my powder dry.

It is no surprise to see the three-year-olds, unbeaten Don't Touch and the progressive Dawn's Early Light, head the betting but I couldn't be with them at 10/1. At this stage, at least.

Of those at the top of the market Fast Track looks interesting at around the 14/1 mark, given he did best of the higher-drawn horses at Goodwood last time and has an improving profile, but this race looks best shelved until Thursday's 48-hour decs.

***

Looking ahead to York next week, it looks like it will be left to Time Test and The Grey Gatsby to put it up at Golden Horn in the Juddmonte - providing, of course, conditions are suitable for the Derby winner.

I am sure that there will be plenty of people sniffing around to back Time Test and The Grey Gatsby each way at 4/1 and 8/1 respectively - it could easily cut up to less than eight runners - and they could hit the jackpot if the favourite didn't turn up for any reason.

But we will cross that betting bridge when we come to it next week.

And the same is also true of the Nunthorpe, where runaway Queen Mary winner Acapulco dominates the betting at around the 7/4 mark, though Wind Fire is an interesting outsider at around 40/1.

A few people seem to think the fact that this two-year-old filly looks more like a 3m chaser is rather amusing - she is more Arnie, than Annie - when it is clearly anything but. She is the horse to beat given her "precocity", though, and the juvenile allowance she gets. Once again, though, we will tackle this race once we know the line-up.

The Ebor picture probably needs tidying up a bit - not least what Irish horses are coming over for it - before I get involved.

Recommended Ante-Post Bet
Back Here Comes When at 10/1 each way for the Hungerford Stakes (Sportsbook)