Tony Calvin: Take an ante-post chance on Goodbye Dancer this Friday

Tony Calvin
10 December 2019

Rain is forecast for Friday 13th at Cheltenham

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If you take Tony Calvin's advice and grab an early bet on a horse for whom the weather at Cheltenham won't be an issue then this Friday 13th could be your lucky day...

"The weather can do what it likes, but rain won’t be any issue as Goodbye Dancer's best performance to date came on soft ground when he won at Sandown in March 2017. He has also won on good ground and heavy."

Cheltenham is back on Friday for a two-day terrestrial stint - Bangor and Doncaster also get in on the action, too - and we have plenty of ante-post races on the Betfair Sportsbook (and one on the exchange) to conjure with as a result.

In fact, all five of the ITV4 races on Friday from Cheltenham and Bangor have been priced up in addition to the weekend fare, so we are somewhat spoiled for choice.

So I am going to leave Saturday's racing alone here and come to that fresh later in the week. However, I don't have much on tomorrow at the moment, so I could give you a Bruce Bonus (or not) of two ante-post pieces in a week.

Lucky old you.

Keep an eye on the weather forecast and Rock the Kasbah

Doing Fine "won" the voided 3m2f race at Sandown last Saturday so all eyes will presumably be on him in Cheltenham's 3m2f handicap chase at 14:30 on Friday, as he can race off the same mark (if the weights go up that is, as he is currently 4lb out of the handicap) and 7lb claimer Philip Donovan is already jocked up again.

But it's a competitive race and the two that interest me more are Singlefarmpayment and Rock The Kasbah, and the latter initially looked a very back able 10/1 chance with the Betfair Sportsbook.

In fact, I was going to put him up as an each-way bet at that price here before I clocked the weather forecast (and he is also in the Welsh National in a couple of weeks).

Although he actually has a very good record in testing conditions, connections appear to have it in their minds that the horse needs decent ground nowadays and the current good (good to soft in places) could turn soft if the forecast proves correct.

The BHA says up to 20mm is predicted by Thursday and that tallies with the other website I use, so there is the possibility that the horse may not run in those circumstances. He was pulled out of a handicap here in October due to the worsening ground.

I will be all over him if they don't get as much rain as forecast and he gets the go-ahead though, as his 18-length seventh in the Badger Ales (or Beers as it is called now) on his reappearance does not reflect how well he ran and the handicapper dropped him 2lb for it.

He was still in the lead two out before getting very tired, and he is now just 1lb higher than when winning second-time-out here last season, and he is handicapped to do some damage.

It's worth taking a chance on Goodbye Dancer

I will leave Rock the Kasbah alone for now, but I don't think I can let Goodbye Dancer go unbacked at 25/1 each way in the 3m Citipost Handicap Hurdle on Friday (15:40).

The price could immediately come under pressure, but I would seriously considering backing him at 14/1 or bigger (14/1 is the shortest price in the marketplace) if the price has gone by the time you read this.

It's increasingly important to give a guide price these days.

Now, for all I know, I could be backing a non-runner as Fergal O'Brien has two in the race and Goodbye Dancer isn't jocked up at the time of writing.

I am more than happy to take the chance at the price though.

Cheltenham fence 1280x720.jpg

You don't need me to tell you what a brilliant season O'Brien is having, and the cardiganed-one looks to have inherited a very well-handicapped horse from Nigel Twiston-Davies.

Goodbye Dancer is also versatile as regards going, so the weather can do what it likes, but rain won't be any issue as his best performance to date came on soft ground when he won at Sandown in March 2017. He has also won on good ground and heavy.

He is 9lb lower now and the switch to O'Brien is clearly no negative, while it is encouraging that he ran so well when third over course and distance (off an 11lb higher mark) last November.

In fact, after that run, he came to this very race and finished a creditable sixth considering the race didn't pan out ideally for him.

He is currently set to carry 10st 5lb on Friday, which could be good news as previous connections reported that he isn't the biggest, although having said that he humped 11st 12lb when winning at Sandown.

If he gets the green light - and he has no other entries at the moment - then it wouldn't surprise me if he went off at single-figures on the day given his profile and the form of the yard.

And owners, Noel Fehily Racing Syndicate, will be looking for an important result on the big stage in their first season, too.

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