Tony Calvin: Backing an old friend at a tasty price in the Lanzarote Hurdle

Tony Calvin
08 January 2019

Tony has high hopes for Mr Antolini (right) in Saturday's Lanzarote Hurdle

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A bonus antepost column from Tony Calvin this week as our man takes a look at the 32Red Casino Chase and Lanzarote Hurdle on Saturday, where he has his eye on a 14/1 shot...

"If the ground is deemed suitable then I think he has a huge chance, far better than double-figure quotes would suggest."

Waiting for a signal

The Tudor ghosts at nearby Hampton Court were probably awoken early by the groans from the Kempton crowd when Waiting Patiently was effectively brought down in the King George on Boxing Day - he officially unseated, but Brian Hughes had little chance of staying on after Bristol De Mai came down in front of him - and he may bid for compensation of sorts in the 32Red Casino Chase over 2m4f110yd at the same track on Saturday.

Don't worry kids, ghosts don't exist.

However, there is no end-of-bed-3am-surprise that Waiting Patiently is vying for favouritism (just about, mind you) to follow up his win in this race last season at around the 5/2 mark, as he went on to post a high-class effort when beating Cue Card in the Betfair Ascot Chase and is clearly a horse of no little potential, with the step down in trip taking away those stamina concerns.

He does carry a 6lb penalty here though, and this will be no simple breeze if impressive Peterborough Chase winner Charbel and Top Notch stand their ground, though that pair also have that same, extra burden.

The market tells you that.

Indeed, those two rivals are already chomping on his heels when it comes to heading the market - and they are a bit further forward with some bookmakers - and no doubt aided by Ruth Jefferson making very cautious noises about the drying ground.

If Kempton doesn't get any rain this week, then he may not even rock up, and it looks like being good ground come Saturday, and maybe a touch quicker. Indeed, it sounds as if Waiting Patiently could be waiting a bit longer than Saturday before embarking upon a comeback trail that will see him take in the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham, and not the Gold Cup.

If he does turn out on Saturday though, it is in his favour that he didn't actually hit the deck in the King George, so it wasn't as bad an experience as it could have been.

It's a race that can easily be left alone for now though, with so many doubts about the attendance figures.

Old favourite has a huge chance in the Lanzarote

The main betting race of the weekend is the Lanzarote Hurdle, and my old favourite Mr Antolini stands out for me at the current 14/1 with the Betfair Sportsbook (top price in the marketplace).

When I say old favourite, he is actually pushing his luck a bit after three defeats this season, but I make no excuse for possibly retaining the faith here.

Again, though, you would have to be a bit worried about the ground for him, and he hasn't been jocked up yet on the Racing Admin site (only five have in fact- Erick Le Rouge, Doux Pretender, Mellow Ben, Big Time Dancer and Milrow).

However, if it is deemed suitable then I think he has a huge chance, far better than double-figure quotes would suggest. Okay, he disappointed me a touch over 1m7f152yd on soft ground at Ascot last time, but I am willing to admit that I got him wrong there and that the trip was inadequate.

He certainly ran as though it was - getting outpaced from two out at a crucial stage before rounding the bend - and he stuck on well enough up the straight, even if his finishing effort after going through a flattened hurdle at the last was a bit tame.

He is clearly fully effective over 2m in deep ground, as he showed when beating Call Me Lord in the Imperial Cup, but maybe I have called him wrong and he is more of a stayer.

Certainly, he shaped very well when on his reappearance over 2m5f on good ground at Cheltenham - he landed flat-footed over the last after travelling very well throughout - and he could have been ridden more aggressively when just collared close home over 2m3f at Haydock on his penultimate start.

At least he has been eased 1lb since his Ascot run, and I am convinced he has a big handicap in him off a mark of 140.

Whether or not the Lanzarote on Saturday is the place he will show that - he has never raced on quicker than good - but I will be with him if he is does.

Until then though, it is very much the archetypal "watching brief."

Back on Friday. Good luck.