A week-long forecast of rain is never ideal for antepost punters but it hasn't prevented Tony Calvin from looking at Saturday's Cambridgeshire at Newmarket...
"With 17 runs under his belt, you can hardly call him unexposed on the whole, but he certainly is at this trip, which threatens to bring about more improvement, and he comes in here in the form of his life."
Everyone looking out of their windows on Tuesday morning will have probably seen one thing, and lots of it.
It looks like being a wet week wherever in the country you reside, but the horrible question facing ante-post punters is just how much will fall at Newmarket, and how it will change the current good to firm going description at the track.
Even if the forecast is half-right, then I think you have to proceed on the basis of good to soft ground, and possibly even more testing.
Guessing is a horrible prospect at the best of times - the course were anticipating 12mm throughout Tuesday alone - but I am sure many will be getting stuck into the Saturday's Cambridgeshire regardless.
Rain a problem for Don but not for main market rivals
The rain could be bad news for Le Don De Vie, the £460,000 purchase at the London Goffs Sale after winning at Epsom.
He has an excellent profile for this race. He was very weak in the market and ran accordingly at Goodwood after a break, and a 5lb rise for his defeat of Great Example (who traded at 1/1001.01 and shaped like much the best horse in the race when third at Newbury on Saturday) at the track last time looks workable.
But anything worse than good to soft could be an issue for him, and certainly his dam ran some of her worst races with ease in the ground.
No such problems for main market rivals Lord North and Good Birthday, and they both have obvious claims at around the 10/1 level, too.
The lightly-raced Fifth Position is the other one vying for favouritism, though I suppose we should also add another John Gosden horse into the mix here, in the shape of the well-related, class-dropper Star Of Bengal.
Weather forecast a worry for Jazeel but not so for Sand
But I can let them all go unbacked at their current prices - for now, at least - and I have to sit on the fence with Jazeel, too.
If you take away his two York performances of late - where he had no chance at all from his hold-up position in the rear - then this is a progressive horse with a lot going for him.
Sure, he went up 3lb for his narrow defeat at Goodwood but the step back to down 1m1f in a big field and a fast pace could easily see him step forward again.
Last year's Silver Cambridgeshire winner could have the ideal set-up tactically here, but there are two issues for me at this point in time.
The most worrying is that weather forecast. He did win his novice on good to soft, but this is a horse who has blossomed on decent or quick ground. That concerns me, as does the form of the yard to a lesser extent.
Raising Sand may reserve his best efforts for Ascot and be running off a career-high mark of 109 here, but he ran well in a Group 3 last time and his connections will have been rubbing their hands with glee at this forecast.
And it is worth noting how well he ran, on unsuitably quick ground when eighth in this race last season. He clearly has a fair job on here off a mark of 109, even if connections decide to claim off him.
Story in form of his life
The more rain the better for last year's runner-up Mordin, but I think we have a bet in the shape of Bedouin's Story at 25/126.0 or bigger.
I would advise people to play win-only at this stage, because I think we will be looking at six places or more when it comes to the ante-post offers later in the week.
But he looks a shortener to me, all right. I don't know if he is a definite runner, but he certainly should be (and he does have a win on firm ground to his name, too, so he is adaptable on that score, if needed).
He did me a favour when hosing up over 7f on soft ground at York in July, when the stable's sure touch with first-time headgear paid dividends, the 4yo easing home by 2 1/4 lengths (from a horse now rated 3lb higher after a good second at Doncaster recently) in a quick time.
He predictably went up a fair chunk for that win (7lb to be precise) and indeed he was raised another 2lb for his defeat over 1m at Chelmsford last time, but the strong suspicion is that he should have won there. And it was a strong handicap too, full of in-form horses.
He got shuffled back to last from his inside draw after a slow start, and that is never a good position at Chelmsford.
So he had to come wide there and could never quite close down the all-the-way winner Maamora, who is a very progressive filly in her own right and who only just got chinned in a valuable Listed race in Sweden on Sunday.
This will be Bedouin Story's first run at 1m1f but his run-style (though he doesn't look totally straightforward, hence the headgear I suppose, as he has also been tried in a hood and a visor) and pedigree suggests he should love it.
He is by Farhh out of a 1m4f winner, and he is a half-brother to two very smart handicappers in Start Right and Sparkling Portrait, both 1m3f winners, the latter loving soft ground.
With 17 runs under his belt, you can hardly call him unexposed on the whole, but he certainly is at this trip, which threatens to bring about more improvement, and he comes in here in the form of his life.
The general 25/1 quotes in the marketplace just look plain wrong for a stable that saddled the second and third in this race in 2017.
Given that Bedouin's Story has won easily in a first-time hood and cheek pieces before (and he was didn't appear to get the run of the race in an initial visor in Meydan), I wonder whether they will try blinkers here, especially as he needed rousting early doors after that tardy start at Chelmsford.
But whatever he wears, I expect him to wear it well.
Thank you, Rod Stewart.
Bedouin's Story at 25/126.0 or bigger in Cambridgeshire at Newmarket on Saturday