Tony Calvin: Brazos can help Brittain rule Ascot

Can Brazos score us a big win at Ascot?
Can Brazos score us a big win at Ascot?

Our value hunter has been rooting in the form for the best bets and pulled out a 33/1 shot for the Gigaset International Stakes at Ascot on Saturday...

"Brazos remains on a favourable mark and, with conditions likely to be ideal on a track he clearly enjoys, then I struggle to see how all the layers have priced him up at 33-1. It looks plain wrong to me. The stable won this race with a similar sort in Al Muheer in 2009, who was also a 4yo owned by Saeed Manana."

It is slightly worrying that Brazos hasn't been out since Chester in May but those concerns are more than catered for with the fact that he is available at 33-1 with the Betfair Sportsbook for the Gigaset International Stakes at Ascot.

Back him each way with the Sportsbook at 33-1, or at 34.033/1 win only on the exchange.

Considering that I thought the soft ground would have been far from ideal at Chester last time - he had run below par on the two previous occasions he had encountered that going - I thought he ran an excellent race in first time blinkers to finish third there. And the way that form has worked out has to be viewed as very encouraging to his chances here.

The winner has not been seen out since but the runner-up Rene Mathis won a valuable handicap off the same mark at Newmarket earlier in the month and the fourth won at the Curragh last time out.

Rewind to his earlier efforts, and I start to get pretty bullish about his claims at the odds.

His two earlier runs this season were full of promise - he is not ideally suited by a mile but ran very respectably considering he was also ridden too prominently at Newbury, after finishing a good fifth to Speculative Bid on his reappearance at Kempton (he is 9lb better off with the winner for a 1½ length beating) - and the return to 7f on decent ground at Ascot seals the deal.

He was a well-backed winner over course and distance last season, and followed that up with a blinder when sixth in the Jersey Stakes here.

He remains on a favourable mark and, with conditions likely to be ideal on a track he clearly enjoys, then I struggle to see how all the layers have priced him up at 33-1. It looks plain wrong to me. The stable won this race with a similar sort in Al Muheer in 2009, who was also a 4yo owned by Saeed Manana.

At the top end of the market I think Speculative Bid is plenty short enough at 10-1, but I can see why there has been a bit of money flying around for Mister Universe.

I tipped him at a big price when he ran a good race when eighth in the Jersey Stakes over track and trip last month - he was only beaten just over 3 lengths and that race is working out well - and he put a woeful effort behind him when second at Newbury on Saturday.

He has sound claims, but I'll just stick with the one play in Brazos.

It is hard to make a case for any horse to lower the colours of Golden Horn in the King George. But money-buying at 1-2 is not my game and I will wait until the "without favourite" market is up at the weekend before stepping in.

In fact, I think bookmakers have missed a trick by not offering this market now as it would have breathed life into a very static betting affair so far.

More of that on Friday afternoon, where York will also be on the agenda.

Recommended Bet
Back Brazos at 33-1 each way with the Betfair Sportsbook at Ascot on Saturday

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