Tony Calvin: An open letter to Aidan O'Brien and the lads

Tony Calvin
22 May 2016

Tony wants Aidan O'Brien to allow Shogun to take his chance in the Epsom Derby

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In what is shaping up to be a wide open Epsom Derby our big-price tipster Tony Calvin - who found last year's Oaks winner ante-post at huge odds - believes Aidan O'Brien should allow one of his 'lesser lights' to take his chance on the first Saturday in June...

"The horse had worn blinkers ever since he won his maiden on good ground in the first-time headgear at the Curragh last July but they were left off in the Derrinstown, where I though he ran an excellent Derby trial in finishing a closing second to Moonlight Magic."

There have been some pretty blatant articles in the racing press down the years willing horses to run in big races for the journalist's own professional, and whisper it quietly, possibly financial reasons.

The most obvious one I can remember is when Henry Rix, then of the Racing Post, implored connections to run the Gold Cup runner-up Rough Quest in the Grand National 16 days later, which he duly won.

And the most recent was Tom Segal's rather one-eyed rant in the same paper a couple of Sundays ago why Galileo Gold should run in the Derby, the Guineas winner being ruled out of Epsom just days after he put him up in his Pricewise column.

These are by no means isolated examples of self-interest, of that I am certain. And I dare say that I have written the odd one myself down the years.

So it is always wise to be honest and up front when embarking upon these columns, so I will admit to having had £42.81 on Shogun at average odds on 47.93 on Betfair for the Derby. And a tiny bit of 33s and 25s non-runner no-bet before yesterday's Irish 2,000 guineas. And I mean tiny.

He currently trades at 48.047/1 on the exchange, so we are hardly talking super-shrewdie here, but here is why I think the horse should be at least half those odds and why he should run at Epsom.

And, trust me, it isn't because I have had forty-odd notes on him.

The horse was no great shakes as a juvenile compared to the ranks of the other Ballydoyle massive.

But he was still officially rated 108 after being beaten just under two lengths into sixth in the Lagardere, a race in which he finished immediately behind the Guineas winner in third, the subsequent Group 1 winner Johannes Vermeer in fourth and French Guineas runner-up First Selection in fifth.

He was doing all his best up the inner in the closing stages, strongly suggesting middle distances would be his bag at three.

His reappearance third on rain-softened ground on his comeback in the Craven was underwhelming, but his next two starts strongly suggested to me that Aidan O'Brien should let him take his chance at Epsom on 4 June.

The horse had worn blinkers ever since he won his maiden on good ground in the first-time headgear at the Curragh last July but they were left off in the Derrinstown, where I though he ran an excellent Derby trial in finishing a closing second to Moonlight Magic.

Yes, it was an unconvincing race on the whole with the pacemaker Saafarr beaten 2 ½ lengths into fifth - he actually runs in the maiden at the end of the Curragh card today, while Beacon Rock and Lieutenant General from that race also take in the Gallinule today - but everything about that performance screamed that the horse needs 1m4f.

So I was pretty shocked when the blinkers went back on and he was allowed to take his chance in the Irish 2,000 Guineas yesterday, and it was no real surprise that he was beaten 11 lengths into fifth.

However, go and look at that performance, and it was actually pretty encouraging as regards his future over middle distances. He doesn't have a lot of natural pace - and that is an obvious worry at Epsom - and I thought that he was destined for last at the Curragh when he dropped away after being scrubbed along to race prominently early on.

But he stuck on again in the final furlong, and surely what this horse needs is a test of stamina on decent ground.

The formbook and his pedigree - his dam won over 1m4f on good ground, and stayed 1m6f - tells you that. And hopefully with the blinkers left off too, as they were discarded with in the Derrinstown to make him settle and relax over the longer trip, and they appeared to work on that score.

Sure, there are better form candidates at Ballydoyle alone, and certainly far sexier and more unexposed ones like US Army Ranger and The Gurkha (who I suspect could possibly be St James' Palace-bound now after yesterday's Guineas' defeats for Air Force Blue and Air Vice Marshall), but I think this horse will take giant strides forward when getting his optimum conditions.

So, I for one, think he should at least be allowed to take his chance.

Who knows, he could just emulate his full-sister, Qualify, and be the unlikeliest of Epsom winner when encountering 1m4f on a, hopefully, decent surface next month.

Or, not so unlikely, if you agree with me.

Hopefully Aidan and "The Lads" will, too. They don't tend to win Derbys with outsiders, but this year, with the betting currently 5.69/2 the field on the exchange, could be the exception.