Tony Calvin: Hobbs can land another big Saturday race with Betfair Hurdle contender

Tony Calvin
09 February 2016

Sternrubin runs in the Betfair Hurdle on Saturday

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Racing tipster Tony Calvin is back with his antepost column, and has spotted a horse he fancies for the Betfair Hurdle at decent odds...

"It was disappointing to see so many of the big Saturday races re-opened because of lack of entries at the five-day stage on Monday - more of that later - but that certainly won't be the case in the Betfair Hurdle where recent history suggests we can expect at least 20 runners to rock up."

As tempting as it is to dissect last weekend's racing with reference to the Cheltenham ante-post markets - and there is plenty to pore over - I think it makes sense to now wait for the Non-Runner No-Bet markets to be rolled out for the non-Championship races before stepping in.

Normally, they begin to be drafted in at the Kempton meeting at the end of this month, but keep your eyes peeled in the meantime.

Far too many running plans look to be up in the air still, especially in the novice races - for example Yorkhill, thought to have been on target for the Supreme, is currently very weak on the exchange for that race, no doubt linked to the recent disappointments of the owner's Up For Review and Bellshill - so I am going to focus solely on this weekend's action.

It was disappointing to see so many of the big Saturday races re-opened because of lack of entries at the five-day stage on Monday - more of that later - but that certainly won't be the case in the Betfair Hurdle where recent history suggests we can expect at least 20 runners to rock up.

And, given it is Britain's richest handicap hurdle at £155k, little wonder.

Willie Mullins certainly thinks it is worth winning as he is responsible for eight of the 31 entries, and five of the top nine in the weights. However, trying to establish which of the octet are intended runners does make backing any of his posse a touch problematical ante-post.

Given the prize, he could run them all, and even the outsider of his entries, Ivan Grozny, available at 75.074/1 on the exchange, is very interesting indeed, having been an eye-catcher after a long absence at Leopardstown last month.

But if Mullins' Blazer gets into the race down the bottom of the weights, then he will be the best handicapped horse in the contest by some distance.

He would only carry a 5lb penalty for his impressive win at Leopardstown on Saturday, his first hurdling start for the yard, and I imagine the assessor will be giving him at least 10lb more to carry in future handicaps.

But it is obviously a very quick turnaround for such a competitive race, and dangers aren't hard to identify, though fellow market leaders Modus and War Sound were quickly dismissed on price grounds.

Forest Bihan and Affaire d'Honneur very nearly made it to the top of my list - the former has shaped as if there is more to come on more than one occasion this season, and you suspect this has long been the plan for this ex-French winner - but Sternrubin is my main fancy at odds of 13.012/1.

And consider Betfair Sportbook's 10-1 each way too, as they are the only firm currently paying five places.

He doesn't have the sexy "plot" profile of a few of these but we know he is progressive, is proven in big-field handicaps and over course and distance, and in the ground, which again threatens to be border-line unraceable everywhere at the weekend.

The question to be asked about him is whether an 8lb rise for dead-heating in the Ladbroke at Ascot last time has done for him here.

On the bare form, you'd be inclined to say yes, even though none of the first six home have raced since. It was a fair enough hike, and there are a few in here that could take him on for the lead, notably the likes of Agrapart, Starchitect and Dicosimo to name just three.

But then go and look at the video of the race and you marvel at how the front-runner has rallied after being headed - little wonder why he traded 130.0129/1 in the run - to get a share of the race with course specialist Jolly's Cracked It.

That resolution and will-to-win was reminiscent of the last two winners of this race, prominent racers Violet Dancer and Splash Of Ginge, and I think he will be hard to kick out of the frame, for all that this is a clearly a race with tremendous depth. And we may not have got to the bottom of him just yet, either.

If you want to take on a left-field suggestion at the same time, then consider backing Sternrubin at 80.079/1 and upwards for the Supreme, too.

If Sternrubin finishes in the first four at Newbury off 142 then he has probably run to a mark close to 150 - and more if he wins - and that puts him bang in place contention for the Cheltenham race at a price.

And the Betfair Hurdle has been a stepping stone to the Supreme in recent years.

Yes, you strongly suspect that he doesn't have the natural brilliance of previous winners My Tent Of Yours or a Get Me Out Of Here, but they went off 15-8 and 9-2 respectively for the Supreme after winning this valuable prize.

And 2011 winner Recession Proof finished fifth at 12-1 in one of the hottest of Supremes. It was a bit unfortunate to bump into Al Ferof, Spirit Son, Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card in the same year, so fifth wasn't too shabby.

In short, I've seen worst fliers at far shorter prices.

I'll do a separate piece on the other Newbury races later if anything catches my eye.

Recommended Bet
Back Sternrubin at 13.012/1 in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury on Saturday