Betfair White.png

Cheltenham Festival 2018

The Betfair Punters' Guide

13 - 16 March 2018

Bet on the Betfair Sportsbook

Bet on the Exchange



SCROLL DOWN


chevron-down3.png

Welcome

The Cheltenham Festival 2018 begins on March 13 when the roar of the crowd before the first race will signal the start of the finest four days in jumps racing.

The best horses, jockeys and trainers from across the UK and Ireland will descend on Prestbury Park for a midweek marathon of 28 top-quality races.

To help you have a successful week, we've put together a guide, featuring the Betting.Betfair view on all four days. In addition, there's top insight from Timeform and information how to get the most out of Betfair products like Each-Way Edge and much more.

Have a great 2018 Cheltenham Festival.

Key Trends

- Ireland have won the Supreme Novices' Hurdle 15 times in the past 27 years. Seven of the last ten winners could be found in the first four in the betting.

- The last ten winners of the Arkle had finished in the first two on all of their completed chase starts.

- The previous ten RSA Chase winners had all finished in the first three last time out, had contested a Graded chase and had never run on the Flat.

- Willie Mullins has won the last three renewals of the JLT Chase. All seven winners of the race had won previously over the trip and run over hurdles at the Festival.

- In the Ryanair Chase, eight of the ten previous winners had won at Cheltenham before, had no more than four runs since October and had recorded a top-two finish in at least one of their last two starts.

- The Irish have won eight of the last 11 County Hurdles. Of those eight, three ran in Newbury's Betfair Hurdle. Look out for Betfair Hurdle runner-up Bleu Et Rouge, trained by Willie Mullins, who has won four of the last eight renewals.

- Bobs Worth, Coneygree and Sizing John were the only three of the last ten Gold Cup winners not to have run in the King George VI or Lexus Chase that season. This year's King George VI winner, Might Bite, is the 4/1 favourite for the Cheltenham showpiece.

- Nine of the last ten Grand Annual winners had had no more than 12 runs over fences, had won over the trip and were aged nine or younger.

Cheltenham Day One Tips

Day One of the Festival begins with the Supreme Novices' Hurdle and as has become tradition, we have a Ruby Walsh ridden / Willie Mullins trained favourite in the shape of Getabird (see video below) who is undefeated in two runs so far this season. The British challenge is lead by Betfair Hurdle winner Kalashnikov but the market would suggest that this is a prize destined to head back to Ireland for a fifth time in the last six years.

Mullins' stranglehold on the Arkle Chase was broken by Altior last year but the master trainer looks to have an excellent chance of regaining the prize with Footpad. The six-year-old is set to renew rivalries with old foe Petit Mouchoir who had his number over hurdles last season but has struggled to exert the same authority over fences.

Last year's winner of the Champion Hurdle, Buveur D'Air is odds-on to win back-to-back renewals of the race for trainer Nicky Henderson. He's been imperious in his three victories this season and the likes of Faugheen and My Tent Or Yours look set to fight it out for the minor honours. At a bigger price, Gordon Elliott's Mick Jazz has already won one Grade 1 this year, he's 33/1 to add to that here.

Chelt Guide Stat - Day One(3).jpg

Gordon Elliott

Last year's top trainer at the Festival returns in 2018 with an even larger army of Irish raiders. The Betfair Ambassador gave us his thoughts on some of his key runners...

Samcro - Ballymore Novices' Hurdle

Now unbeaten in six starts under rules Samcro heads to the Festival with an aura of excitement about him. His latest appearance at the Dublin Racing Festival dropping back to 2m was his first Grade 1 and yet again he did it very well, he is such a pleasure to train he just gets on with it - nothing fazes him. He has lots of options going forward but he was bought to be a 3m Chaser and has an incredibly bright future ahead of him.

Apples Jade - Mares' Hurdle

Emphatic in her three from three this season she handled the step up in trip at Leopardstown in December holding on gamely ahead of Irish Champion Hurdle winner Supasundae, she absolutely loves a battle and she is one of the most tenacious horses I train. With nine wins to her name, seven of which are Grade 1's she doesn't need any introductions or explanations.

Tiger Roll - Cross Country Chase

What a wonderful horse he is, a dual Cheltenham Festival winner who has also won at the October meeting - he clearly loves the track! He goes for the Glenfarclas - I think it has his name all over it, he went schooling over the cross country course at Cheltenham last week and went very well, all being well he will take his chance and we would be expecting another big run from him.

Cheltenham Day Two Tips

This year's 'Irish Banker' - Samcro - lines up in the first race on day two, the Ballymore Novices Hurdle, and he'll be expected to extend his unbeaten streak under trainer Gordon Elliott to seven races. Grade 1 winner, Next Destination, probably rates as the chief threat to the favourite based on his win last time but he'll have to step forward a long way to keep up with Samcro.

The Irish look to have a strong hand in this year's RSA Chase too with former Festival winner Presenting Percy the market leader, closely followed by Monalee and Al Boum Photo. Paul Nicholls will be hoping his Black Corton, winner of five of his six starts this season, can repel the overseas challenge.

Altior certainly hasn't had an ideal preparation for the Queen Mother Champion Chase but he remains at the head of the betting at 8/11. He looked to retain all of his talent when running out a convincing winner at Newbury (see video below) last time but Willie Mullins will feel that Min holds every chance of turning the tables on the Seven Barrows star.

Chelt Guide Stat Day 2(2).jpg

Paul Nicholls

Paul Nicholls heads into the 2018 Cheltenham Festival with one of his strongest teams in recent years; he gave us his verdict on the chances of some of his leading hopes...

Black Corton - RSA Chase

This has been the target for the prolific Black Corton since Xmas when he took his score for the season over fences to eight with another fluent success in the Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot last Saturday. In seven of them he has been ridden by Bryony Frost who gets such a great tune out of him. Black Corton continues to amaze me because I didn't appreciate how good he was early in the season but I do now.

His coat looks stunning, and he is bouncing again after Ascot and we will head to Cheltenham with high hopes that he can see off a strong Irish challenge.

Modus - JLT Chase

Modus is on a mark of 156 and has won three from three of his four starts over fences so this is the logical target for him. He was bought to be a chaser, is definitely going the right way and I loved the way he winged the last fence to seal victory at Kempton recently. He has to have a nice chance.

Le Prezien - Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Plate

Le Prezien has plenty of decent course form at Cheltenham and has gone gone close there twice this season in competitive handicaps before a mistake put paid to his chance at the track last time in December. He will appreciate drier conditions, the trip is ideal and he is going to pop up one day in one of these big handicaps.

Cheltenham Day Three Tips

The Ryanair Chase is shaping up to be one of the races of the week with the likes of Un De Sceaux, Balko Des Flos & Cue Card all vying for success. Willie Mullins has won the contest for the last two years and his Un De Sceaux is 5/2 to make it three in a row. Cue Card is 10/1 to win his second Ryanair after tasting victory in 2013; the 12-year-old looked the force of old last time when just failing to hold off Waiting Patiently in the Betfair Ascot Chase (see video below).

Yanworth didn't prove quite as good as hoped over fences and he reverts to smaller obstacles for the Stayers' Hurdle this year. Undoubtedly still talented, Alan King's gelding is 7/2 to finally get a win on the board at the Festival. He'll renew rivalries with Supasundae who he beat a length at Aintree last season but Jessica Harrington will be confident her Coral Cup winner can reverse the placings in this after running out a surprise winner of the Irish Champion Hurdle.

Willie Mullins is the man to follow in the Mares Novices' Hurdle having won both runnings of the race; it's therefore no surprise that he trains hot favourite Laurina who is unbeaten since joining the yard. Having won 10 of the 12 Mares' races at the Festival, few will be lining up to take a swipe at the favourite but Stuart Edmunds' Maria's Benefit, unbeaten in five including at Grade 2 level, has done everything asked of her so far and is 6/1 to cause an upset.

Chelt Guide Stat Day 3(1).jpg

Cheltenham Day Four Tips

Following Nicky Henderson and Alan King trained horses in the Triumph Hurdle has proven a wise move in recent years and the pair are well represented this year with the front two in the market, namely Apple's Shakira and Redicean. The former is unbeaten in three trips to Prestbury Park this season and is 5/2 to win her fourth at the 2018 Festival. As ever, Willie Mullins has a battalion of runners lining up in opposition and it looks as though his Stormy Ireland could be his main hope; she won her only start for the trainer by 58 lengths and is 7/1 to follow up at Cheltenham.

The 2018 renewal of the Cheltenham Gold Cup is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent memory. Might Bite is currently the 10/3 favourite with last year's bronze medalist Native River at 5/1; Our Duke is 7/1 for last year's winning trainer Jessica Harrington. It's worth focusing on the top of the market when it comes to the Cheltenham showpiece with 15 of the last 17 winners coming from the front three in the betting and King George VI winner Might Bite looks a worthy favourite. He out-fought stablemate Whisper to land last year's RSA Chase and the three-time Grade 1 winner is unbeaten since.

Chelt Guide Stat Day 4(1).jpg

Timeform's Jockeys to Follow

Ruby Walsh is the best/worst Cheltenham jockey. Davy Russell is unbeatable in handicaps. Nina Carberry always wins the Foxhunters. There are many throwaway comments made about jockeys at the Cheltenham Festival, some of which have substance to back them up, while others depend on which horse people have backed. But who is the best?

Well, that all depends what you're looking for. It's clear that while Ruby Walsh has ridden the most winners (22), backing all of his mounts would only return a marginal profit.

Of course that isn't to say Walsh is a bad jockey, merely that his mounts are usually prominent in the betting and the returns are smaller when they do oblige. The key stat with Walsh is when to back him - and this is easy - all of his wins over the last five years have come in non-handicap races.

Contrastingly, Davy Russell - who returns the greatest profit overall - excels in handicaps, with 75% of his rides running to form. Of those who have ridden more than one handicap winner in this time period, Paul Townend and Brian Hughes are other jockeys to note.

As well as Russell, Townend is the man to go to when looking for a winner over hurdles, while Tom Scudamore fares extremely well over fences. Though often much maligned, Bryan Cooper's record over the bigger obstacles is also very good.

Looking for the best amateur rider? Jamie Codd, backed by trainer Gordon Elliott, is your man. His record of five wins from just 18 rides is actually better than Ruby Walsh's strike-rate.

Betting.Betfair.com has everything you need for the Cheltenham Festival.

Make sure to visit us throughout the lead up to the Cheltenham Festival 2018 for tips and expert advice from our writers.

betfair.png

Betting.Betfair

Insights and opinions from our racing experts and ambassadors on the Betfair Blog...

Read more

twitter.png

Twitter

Stay up to date on the latest news and action as we're tweeting throughout Cheltenham...

Follow Us

facebook.png

Facebook

Join the conversation and follow us on Facebook to get the latest on all the action from the Festival...

Follow Us