Early pace wins races and occasionally that can result in what appears a guaranteed all-the-way leader. Darrell Williams investigates the 'easy leader' scenario and looks ahead to tonight's live RPGTV action and Friday night's big double-header at Romford.
"If anything, the switch to trap six could prove advantageous to Pat Janssens’ charge and he can take early control before utilising his superb back-straight pace"
It's all in the split times
Last time we touched upon the ideal betting scenario, the greyhound that appears set to get a clear run, hugely enhancing its chance of success. Those perfect make-ups are few and far between especially in graded races but searching for the early leader is another excellent strategy in the winner finding battle.
For the novice that's easier to do in graded races where most of the runners' form is over the same trip making analysing the split times - that's the time from the traps to the line first time - far easier.
Very occasionally you'll spot a dog whose splits are far superior to the opposition meaning it is almost guaranteed to control the pace. But be wary, racing managers are not in the business of making it too easy and those 'speedballs' are often short runners who may struggle to see out the trip. That's not to say they can't offer an excellent betting proposition but it's up to you to decide whether they will be vulnerable in the closing stages.
Check out their stats, especially in the same grade, to see how often they get the job done and whether their final race times are fast and consistent enough to give them an edge. And remember even if there is a stamina doubt an uncontested lead is a huge asset. After all, the opposition are not working as a team and will need to find a clear route through while the leader is enjoying the run of the race.
For obvious reasons therefore, these 'out and gone' types will often create a mixed balance of views resulting in a good spread of traffic between backers and layers.
Nottingham live on RPGTV tonight
Nottingham keeps Open race fans entertained with a stack of live action on RPGTV tonight. Pat Rosney qualified three for the 480m final (21:22) but while Blissful Scolari would be the obvious choice given his domination on the clock in the heats, kennelmate The Other Ben may offer better value. A Monmore Gold Cup finalist last year - he didn't race again until last week's heats and should come on in the hope the cobwebs have been brushed away.
Corrin Mall has plenty going for him in a 500m heat (19:37) given his excellent Nottingham record and a recent Yarmouth win suggests he is ready to go again after a winter break. If there was a concern it would only be that his best form has been over the 480m trip and with that in mind CD specialist Revilo Fox makes some appeal from his preferred red box.
Tyrur Hugo can put last week's reverse behind him by bouncing back to form in the second heat (19:52) but while Power Local would be considered the logical pick in the third heat (20:07) value players should consider Droopys Aussie, who has little to find on last week's meeting and should be favoured by the wider draw.
Golden Sprint/Essex Vase double-header on Friday
Looking further ahead, Romford's Golden Sprint and Essex Vase are both up for decision on Friday - catch them on the live stream. In the former, the flawless Kilmore Lemon can come out on top against Forest Chunk as the two big guns put their unbeaten records on the line. If anything, the switch to trap six could prove advantageous to Pat Janssens' charge and he can take early control before utilising his superb back-straight pace.
While in the Vase, ultimate course specialist Roswell Romanov is strongly fancied to notch up a remarkable 29th win over CD from what appears the perfect make-up inside five seeded rivals.
Back Revilo Fox in the 19:37 Nottingham
Back Tyrur Hugo in the 19:52 Nottingham
Back Droopys Aussie in the 20:07 Nottingham
Back The Other Ben in the 21:22 Nottingham
Back Kilmore Lemon in the Golden Sprint at EVS (Sportsbook)
Back Roswell Romanov in the Essex Vase at 5/4 (Sportsbook)