US PGA Championship: Ten year trends

American Gary Woodland
Gary Woodland ticks all the right boxes ahead of this year's US PGA
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Dave Tindall takes a close look at the make-up of the last 10 US PGA winners to see which player is most likely to lift the Wanamaker Trophy in 2018...

"Woodland is a 34-year-old American, who sits 44th in the world rankings, was T12 on his US PGA debut in 2011 and also T22 last year. He won the Waste Management Phoenix Open in February, was T17 at the WGC-Bridgestone Inviational on his last start and is still seeking a first major."

Back Gary Woodland at [160.0]

It's been a good year so for the ten year trends previews with two second places and a tied 25th from the three selections.

So can we finally hit the jackpot this time?

Let's begin the search by looking at the last 10 winners of the tournament...

2017 - Justin Thomas

Best previous US PGA finish: 18th
Nationality: American
Age at time: 24
World ranking at time: 14th
Best result that season prior to US PGA: Win
Form ahead of winning US PGA: 28-MC-MC-MC
Form in majors that season: 22-9-MC

2016 - Jimmy Walker

Best previous US PGA finish: 7th
Nationality: American
Age at time: 37
World ranking at time: 48th
Best result that season prior to US PGA: 4th
Form ahead of winning US PGA: 14-MC-16-MC
Form in majors that season: 29-MC-MC

2015 - Jason Day

Best previous US PGA finish: 8th
Nationality: Australian
Age at time: 27
World ranking at time: 5th
Best result that season prior to US PGA: Win
Form ahead of winning US PGA: 12-1-4-9
Form in majors that season: 28-9-4

2014 - Rory McIlroy

Best previous US PGA finish: Win
Nationality: Northern Irish
Age at time: 25
World ranking at time: 1st
Best result that season prior to US PGA: Win
Form ahead of winning US PGA: 1-1-14-MC
Form in majors that season: 8-23-1

2013 - Jason Dufner

Best previous US PGA finish: 2nd
Nationality: American
Age at time: 36
World ranking at time: 21st
Best result that season prior to US PGA: 4th
Form ahead of winning US PGA: 4-26-MC-4
Form in majors that season: 20-4-26

2012 - Rory McIlroy

Best previous US PGA finish: 3rd
Nationality: Northern Irish
Age at time: 23
World ranking at time: 3rd
Best result that season prior to US PGA: Win
Form ahead of winning US PGA: 5-60-10-MC
Form in majors that season: 40-MC-60

2011 - Keegan Bradley

Best previous US PGA finish: Debut
Nationality: American
Age at time: 25
World ranking at time: 108th
Best result that season prior to US PGA: Win
Form ahead of winning US PGA: 15-43-22-MC
Form in majors that season: Hadn't played any

2010 - Martin Kaymer

Best previous US PGA finish: 6th
Nationality: German
Age at time: 25
World ranking at time: 13th
Best result that season prior to US PGA: Win
Form ahead of winning US PGA: 22-7-MC-6
Form in majors that season: MC-8-7

2009 - YE Yang

Best previous US PGA finish: 47th
Nationality: South Korean
Age at time: 37
World ranking at time: 110th
Best result that season prior to US PGA: Win
Form ahead of winning US PGA: 19-5-8-22
Form in majors that season: MC-DNP-DNP

2008 - Padraig Harrington

Best previous US PGA finish: 17th
Nationality: Irish
Age at time: 36
World ranking at time: 3rd
Best result that season prior to US PGA: Win
Form ahead of winning US PGA: 20-1-17-36
Form in majors that season: 5-36-1

Let's collate all that info and see which are the strongest trends....

US PGA form

Six of last 10 US PGA winners had registered a top 10 in the event previously
Eight of last 10 US PGA winners had registered a top 20 in the event previously

Nationality

Four of last 10 US PGA winners were American
Three of last 10 US PGA winners were Irish/Northern Irish

Age

Six of last 10 US PGA winners were in their 20s
Four of last 10 US PGA winners were in their 30s
Ten of last 10 US PGA winners were between 23 and 37 (inclusive)

World ranking at the time

Seven of last 10 US PGA winners were in the world's top 25
Eight of last 10 US PGA winners were in the world's top 50

Form that season

Eight of last 10 US PGA winners had won previously that season

Recent form

Nine of last 10 US PGA winners had posted a top 20 in one of their two previous starts

Form in the majors that season

Six of last 10 US PGA winners had posted a top 10 in the first three majors of the season

Major winner?

Eight of last 10 major winners had never won one before
Seven of last 10 US PGA winners hadn't won a major previously

What we're looking for?

Taking the strongest trends, the ideal fit for a US PGA champion is as follows:

- Had a previous top 20 in a US PGA
- Is between 23-37 (inclusive)
- In world's top 50
- Has won in 2018
- Has a top 20 in one of last two starts
- Hasn't won a major before

Does anyone fit the bill?

Pleasingly, given all the permutations, just one name comes through all those checks:

Gary Woodland best fit for Bellerive

The 34-year-old American, who sits 44th in the world rankings, was T12 on his US PGA debut in 2011 and also T22 last year. He won the Waste Management Phoenix Open in February, was T17 at the WGC-Bridgestone Inviational on his last start and is still seeking a first major.

Ten year Trends results this season

Rickie Fowler (Masters) - 2nd
Bryson DeChambeau (US Open) - T25
Justin Rose (Open Championship) - T2

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