Almost half of all recent US Opens have ended with the same outcome. Do you want to back that same scenario this time around at 3.55/2 or over? Our man reveals all here...
"...given there’s very little difference in price between a playoff and a one-stroke victory, the latter is once again the play."
The Victory Margin market isn't everyone's first port of call for a wager on the US Open but it really should be. Not only does it give you an interest in the event right up until the bitter end but it also offers up some cracking value.
Only twice in the last 40 years has anyone won the event by more than three strokes and it's nearly always even tighter than that. There have only been three three-shot margin wins over the period.
The two results that stick out like sore thumbs are Rory McIlroy's eight-shot demolition job at Congressional two years ago and Tiger Woods' even more sensational and almost unbelievable 15-shot annihilation at Pebble Beach at the turn of the century, but don't dwell too long on those two anomalies, the US Open is nearly always a very tight affair.
Although nearly always close-fought, we haven't seen many playoffs of late - just two in the last 18 years. By some margin, the most common winning margin is one stroke.
Over the last 40 years there have been 15 one-stroke margin winners, which is a high enough percentage, but in recent years that percentage has risen, with 12 of the last 30, eight of the last 17 and four of the last seven US Opens all being won by the slimmest of margins and that has to be the bet again this year - as it was (successfully) 12 months ago.
The game gets ever more competitive, and that's why the finishes are so often so close nowadays. The law of averages would suggest we're bound to get another playoff sooner rather than later but we have to play the odds and given there's very little difference in price between a playoff and a one-stroke victory, the latter is once again the play.
Back one stroke at 3.55/2 or more
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