WGC Cadillac Championship: Tiger can make it eight, says The Punter

Steven Rawlings
04 March 2014

Can Tiger Woods win at Doral for an eighth time?

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He may have hobbled off the PGA National on Sunday but that hasn't put our man off. Steve fancies Tiger could make the line-up on Thursday and if he does he's the man to beat. Read his in-depth preview here...

"I know that the course has been radically changed and that we may see a completely different type of event to any we've seen before here but I'm a betting man and I'd wager we'll see a similar type of tournament and I fancy those with previous course form will still hold sway."

Tournament History

Originally a nomadic event, known as the WGC-American Express Championship and first staged in 1999 at Valderrama, the event moved to its now permanent home in Miami in 2007 when it replaced the old Ford Championship, which had been staged at Doral since 1962. It's been known as the Cadillac Championship since 2011 and it's the second of the year's four World Golf Championships.

There is a field of just 69, made up of the world's best players and there's no cut. It's the strongest event of the year so far.

Venue

TPC Blue Monster at Doral, Doral, Florida

Course Details

Par 72, 7,334 yards

After enjoying the luxury of years of course form to ponder for this event, we might need to just start again this time around as since last year's renewal the course has been extensively re-modelled with only the iconic and granite-tough finishing hole left largely untouched.

Details of all the work can be found here but the speed of the greens (11.8 on the stimpmeter) is much the same as in previous years and with the grass still the same (Bermuda) and the winds still the same - that can't be altered! I don't want to get too tangled up in all the changes before I've seen event seen it.

Trying to gauge how differently it will play could well prove a pointless exercise and we may find that course form still stands up well but we'll just have to wait and see.

Useful Sites
Course Site
Twitter Link
Tee Times
Weather Forecast
Alternative Weather Forecast

TV Coverage

Live on Sky all four days, starting at 18:00 on Thursday and Friday and at 17:00 over the weekend.

Last Five Winners

2013 - Tiger Woods -19
2012 - Justin Rose -16
2011 - Nick Watney -16
2010 - Ernie Els -18
2009 - Phil Mickelson -19

What will it take to win the WGC-Cadillac Championship?

I may well be peeing in the wind this week but I think it's worth looking back at past renewals and seeing what it's taken to win here previously. Yes, the course has changed considerably but it's still the same piece of land with the same Bermuda grass and the same Florida breezes so let's have a look what's been the key to success previously...

Length off the tee has always been advantageous and given the course has been lengthened I see no reason why that should change. The par 5s have been very important of late - Tiger Woods played them in nine-under-par last year but the previous four winners were all double-digits under-par.

You have to have a hot week with the putter too - the last five winners have all ranked inside the top-six for putting.

Is there an identikit winner?

Floridians, or anyone linked to Florida, have a great record in the event so think carefully before backing someone with no connection with the state at all, and if they've no form on Bermuda I'd definitely think twice.

Experience has counted for plenty and the majority of winners have been in the 30s or even 40s. Young-guns don't seem to prosper and since 1983 every winner, bar two, were aged 29 or over.

In-Play Tactics

We saw last week at the Honda Classic that once again being up with the pace from the start on a Bermuda track was essential and that's been the case here for years too. Tiger Woods was only four shots back after round one in the first edition of this event to be staged here back in 2007 and that's the furthest anyone has trailed after 18 holes since.

Woods won wire-to-wire last year, as he did in 2006, and as did both Geoff Ogilvy, in 2008, and Phil Mickelson did in '09. Since 2006, the only winners of the event that weren't in front at halfway are Justin Rose, who trailed by just a stroke, and Nick Watney, who trailed by two.

Market Leaders

The in-form Rory McIlroy heads the market again this week and it's patently obvious why. Not only has he been in fine form recently he's also finished inside the top-ten here in each of the last three years but if you are going to back him. Maybe the First Round Leader Market might be a better place to play?

Rory's led after round one in each of his last two strokeplay events and he's led after day one four times in total since last May...without winning. Some are understandably beginning to question his resolution on a Sunday again and although I wouldn't assume he's lost his 'bottle', I wouldn't be in a rush to back him at a single-figure price in an event this strong.

Adam Scott is so consistent of late that his tied 12th at the Honda Classic on Sunday was his worst finish in seven starts! That's some form. And he finished tied third last year but we could look at that in a less favourable light... Sunday was his worst performance since September and he couldn't get within five shots of Woods last year despite outscoring him by four strokes on the par 5s.

Scott's a fantastic talent but at just 14.5 the market favours him strongly enough and I'd much rather look elsewhere.

The big question this week is will third favourite and defending champion, Tiger Woods, even participate? He withdrew from the Honda Classic mid-round on Sunday complaining of back spasms so there's still a likelihood he won't play at all but if he does, and if the changes haven't been so drastic as to completely throw him off kilter, for my money he's still the man to beat.

Dustin Johnson had a chance at this title in 2011 when he finished second to Nick Watney but that's his only top-ten in five starts here. He has a poor record in Florida so it was no surprise to see him dodge last week's tournament and it would be something of a surprise to me if he won this.

Selections

I fancy this will go to one of the established well-fancied players and I've taken a chance on three that have already shown an aptitude to the venue. I know that the course has been radically changed and that we may see a completely different type of event to any we've seen before here but I'm a betting man and I'd wager we'll see a similar type of tournament and I fancy those with previous course form will still hold sway.

First up is Tiger Woods, who may not even start but he's won at Doral seven times already and he could very easily make it eight.

Trying to work out the extent of a Woods injury is like trying to gauge the form of a Barney Curley-trained racehorse and it would be no surprise to me whatsoever if he turned up on Thursday all tickety-boo. He could genuinely be in a spot of bother and if that's the case I'm sure he'll withdraw before the off anyway but if he does turn up he could be dangerous.

He withdrew from this event two years ago with an Achilles problem and then hacked up at Bay Hill and then last year he missed the cut in Abu Dhabi before waltzing home at Torrey Pines. He has a habit of winning at certain venues and this is certainly one of them. He's always guarded, telling the press very little and for all we know he could be fine already and raring to go.

Bubba Watson looks a very good price again to me this week. I didn't think the course at Dove Mountain suited his style of play for matchplay so I wasn't surprised he didn't progress too far in the Accenture but if you ignore that, he comes here off the back of a win at Riviera and a second in Phoenix, where he most certainly should have won. He led here after day one last year, when not in the best of form, and 12 months before that he was ahead with one round to go so he clearly liked the old Blue Monster. With such strong course and current form, at 28.027/1, he's far too big to be left out from the start.

And finally, I make no apologies for giving Phil Mickelson another try, he wins more than his fare share and he's worth chancing. He's finished in the first three here three times in his last nine starts and just like Tiger, he could easily spring into life. He narrowly missed the cut at the Honda Classic last week but that doesn't put me off and I was more than happy to have a bet at 30.029/1.

Selections:
Tiger Woods @ 17.016/1
Bubba Watson @ 28.027/1
Phil Mickelson @ 30.029/1

I'll be back later this evening, or possibly first thing tomorrow, with my preview of this week's other event - the Puerto Rico Open.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter