US Masters Betting: Victory Margin market

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 03 April 2010 /

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How close will it be when the sun sets on the 2010 US Masters?

"With a serious doubt over Woods’ wellbeing it’s very hard to see anyone streaking away with the event"

The Punter fancies another tight finish, but he's going to follow the stats in the pursuit of value...

Apart from Tiger Woods' demolition job in 1997, when he won by a staggering 12 strokes, and Faldo's bizarre five shot victory 12 months earlier, when Greg Norman collapsed in no uncertain terms, losing a six shot final day lead, the winning margin is usually pretty slim.

Last year's play-off was the 6th in the last 26 years, which is the same number of one stroke victories over the same period. There have been four three stroke wins, but nobody has won by four, and the most common margin has been 2 strokes, of which there have been eight occurrences.

With a serious doubt over Woods' wellbeing it's very hard to see anyone streaking away with the event and a combined lay of 5 Strokes or More and 4 Strokes may well be a decent plan of action.

My gut feeling is that it's going to be really tight again this year, particularly if Tiger struggles, but I'm going to follow the stats and back 2 Strokes. With nearly a one in three strike rate over recent times, anything above [5.0] will be value.

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