The Punter's picks for the US Masters

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 06 April 2011 / 9

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Angel Cabrera helps out Phil Mickelson with his third green jacket last year.

"Phil Mickelson is one of just eight three-time Masters winners, and those victories have all come in the last seven years! He looked to be in scintillating form last weekend and [8.0] is still a great price."

He may have picked out some big-priced picks for this week's big event but he still thinks there's plenty of value left in Lefty. Read Steve's thoughts on the year's first Major here...

Before I start on the event itself, here's a quick explanation of how I've got some of the prices about some of my picks. I mentioned in last week's Live Golf Blog that I'd backed Phil Mickelson at an average of just over [14.5], a price that has never actually been reached, and unsurprisingly that caused a little confusion.

The US Masters market has been up since just after Christmas and as I follow the sport so closely I've been able to trade some of my selections back and forth in an attempt to maximise their prices.

On Friday I was aboard Mickelson at an average price of just under [11.0], which wasn't great at the time. But I took the risk of backing him yet again at [13.5] and [13.0] as he made his move early on at the Shell on Saturday. I then layed him back again (far too early as it transpired) at [10.0].

The net result being that for the stake invested I have backed him at an average price of 14.55.

I have made far too many trades to list on Phil but just to clarify here's an example -
If you backed a selection for £10 at [4.0] your position would then be a loss of £10 or a win of £30. If you then layed the selection for £5 at [3.0], you would reduce your potential loss to £5 and your potential win to £20 and that would give you a net position of a back of £5 at a price of [5.0].

If you follow golf closely enough, it can pay dividends to focus on the major markets before they start. I especially like this one though as we know the course so well and I have a good idea of my fancies weeks or even months in advance. I'm not overly bothered about current form either.

That may seem odd but check out the last four winners, Mickelson, Angel Cabrera, Trevor Immelman and Zach Johnson. Not one was in decent form in the run-up to Augusta and only Lefty and Zach had managed a top-10 finish before the Masters in their year of victory.

Winners may not need to be in form but they certainly need to be top-class. You could argue that Immelman and Johnson don't quite fit that bill but I argue they are. Immelman has been ravaged by injury problems that have curtailed his career considerably and whilst never popular with punters, Zach racks up more than his share of wins and is someone I could certainly envisage winning another major. Other than Zach and Trevor, Mike Weir is the only other champ since 1993 who isn't a multiple major winner. You need class, and bags of it.

As Paul Krishnamurty points out, bombing it off the tee and mastering the par-fives is a huge plus here and experience is vital too. Augusta takes some getting to know and debutantes have an absolutely appalling record.

Of all my Masters memories, Lefty's flying finish in 2004 to deny Ernie Els and to confuse Peter Aliss is the most painful. He birdied five of his last seven holes, broke the Big Easy and his backer's hearts (mine included) and it all happened so fast that poor ole Peter didn't even realise he'd won as his birdie on 18 dropped! I licked my wounds and moved on and I've backed Lefty every year since, he was just so impressive. He's added two more green jackets since and I think he's about to get his 4th.

I've read and heard a few people say he's too short now but I totally disagree, I think he's still generously priced. Let's take a look at the facts...

From 18 starts here, he's finished outside the top-12 just four times, and three of those occasions came many moons ago. In the last 12 years he's won three times, finished third three times and the only time he's finished outside the top-10 was in 2007, the year after his second victory. But it's worth pointing out what a strange year that was. Zach Johnson bucked all sorts of trends that year, winning with an over-par total on a course that was widely regarded to have been set-up far too severely.

He's one of just eight three-time Masters winners, and those victories have all come in the last seven years! He looked to be in scintillating form last weekend and won't fear winning back-to-back events. He won the Bell South Classic in similarly easy style before winning here comfortably in 2006.

Last year's victory, with a score of -16 by a cosy three strokes was his most impressive yet and the only slight negative I can see is that he hasn't YET defended the title. It's a tiny niggling negative and nothing more - [8.0] is still a great price.

My second pick is a reluctant one indeed. Justin Rose has a fine record at Augusta, has led the event twice after day one from just five starts, and comes here in great nick. I've made him my pick in the 1st Round Leader market and I've backed him outright at [40.0]. Successful in two US PGA Tour events last year, his nerve in-contention is improving but I can't quite envisage him winning a major just yet. I'm fairly sure he'll contend this week though and given his propensity to leave the gate swiftly backing him from the start seems prudent.

Korean superstar KJ Choi found himself right in the thick of the action on the back-nine on Sunday last year but wilted under the pressure. He's not quite the mentally strong colossus he once was but he's a wily old pro with some handy course form. He served me well last year and I felt I couldn't leave him out.

I'm convinced Anthony Kim will win a green jacket sooner or later and I first backed him in early January. I set out my argument for his case here back in December.

In addition to Choi, another Korean did me proud last year when he finished tied 8th. YE Yang's constantly underestimated in the market, in good form, has the course form in the bank and is already a major winner. And the fact the Paul has him as one of his Find Me A 100 Winner picks has to be a plus too given his form over the last fortnight!

Trevor Immelman really caught the eye last year, finding form from heaven knows where to finish 14th. As stated earlier, Trevor has been dogged by injuries over the years but he seems fine at the moment and comes here in decent form for a change.

My last realistic pick with a serious chance of success is Rory Sabbatini, who was runner-up here in 2007. He also held a slight chance two years later when he started day four in a tie for 6th, five shots off the lead. He melted away quickly and dropped down to a tie for 20th but nevertheless, that's noteworthy course form. Rory is an irritating character who, like Yang, is often underestimated in the market. Given his course form and the fact he's already won this year (stoically holding off Yang at the Honda Classic) he still looks a very fair price this week.

And finally, I've picked out three huge-priced veterans that might just surprise a few people...

Former winner Fred Couples was Mickelson's biggest challenger in 2006 and he also led after day one last year. And he very nearly put in a final day charge too; remember his front-nine on Sunday? Having already contended on the US PGA Tour this year at Riviera, another of his favourite venues, at the Northern Trust Open, he looks worth siding with from the get-go.

European Tour legend Miguel Angel Jimenez won three times last year and has a reasonable bank of form at Augusta. He was simply too big at [280.0].

Last and probably least is Jerry Kelly, another one that figured at this year's Honda Classic, where he finished third behind Sabbatini and Yang. With three top-20 finishes in his last four attempts at Augusta he really shouldn't be as big as he is.

Selections:

Phil Mickelson @ an average of just over [14.5]
Justin Rose @ [40.0]
KJ Choi @ [80.0]
Anthony Kim @ an average of just under [90.0]
YE Yang @ [120.0]
Rory Sabbatini @ [160.0]
Trevor Immelman @ [170.0]
Fred Couples @ [240.0]
Miguel Angel Jimenez @ [280.0]
Jerry Kelly @ [500.0]

I'll be back on Friday to review the situation after round one.

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Justsomeone | 05 April 2011

Scary. I am on Immel, Sabba, Kelly, Couples, Yang and Jimenez as well! (and a few more, in particular Love and Slocum). But our perspectives certainly are in alignment this week...
pokerface | 05 April 2011

Less than 100 players in the betting and you make 10 selections before it starts. Then you will get anyone who shoots a 63 on your side at big odds and more bets on sat and sun. You make me sick last week you put us all off Mickelson yet when I read your debrief you managed to back him along with Horsey. You make it sound so easy but anyone can say I backed so and so after the event then make 10 bets before a event.
Steven Rawlings | 06 April 2011

Hi Pokerface,

I’m really sorry you feel so aggrieved but please bear in mind that I am NOT a tipster and that this column is merely a diary of my betting activities in the golf markets each week. If people want to follow my selections they do so entirely at their own risk. And if I want to back ten players, I’ll back ten players. Last week in Europe, where we were all pretty much in the dark, I only backed one from the start.

I can only assume that you hadn’t read last week’s Live Golf Blog. All trades are listed and detailed the day after they’re made in the blog, which I try an update daily while the events are ongoing; sometimes there are none and sometimes quite a few. It all depends on how I see.

If you look back you’ll see that on Sunday morning I was regretting not having backed Phil Mickelson at the massive prices he had traded at on Saturday for the Shell. And I also said on Saturday morning that I felt Rhys Davies was the most likely winner in Morocco. He was trading at under [3.0] on Sunday morning, having traded in double-figures on Saturday but I’d missed the boat on him too.

And if you read the two previous weeks De-Briefs you’ll see it isn’t easy, they were two losing weeks. I conceded in last week’s De-Brief that fortune had favoured me last week but we all need a slice of luck from time to time. Here’s hoping you get plenty this week at Augusta.

All the best
Steve
pokerface | 06 April 2011

So your just a diary. Well can I also get paid for telling you about the winners I had last week. You got Horsey on board at four times the price he was when the round was finished so that means you got him before he made loads of birdies yet you said Davies would win but didn't back him. You are full of crap. Why would you not back the person you thought would win and instead back the eventual winner before he started making his birdies. As I said before its easy to say after each round who you backed try saying it before the round. You say .Mickelson is still value yet you have failed to mention Woods once. Woods has a better record at Masters in recent years than your pick and they have both been in poor form this year.
Mike N | 07 April 2011

Pokerface, as Steve has pointed out, his blog is a diary of his selections, his lays and plays during the event etc. He can only write about the bets he has placed after he has placed them, he doesn't know beforehand who he is going to back 'In-Play' as it all depends on how the event unfolds.

True, he will outline his pre-event selections as he has done here, but as the tournaments progresses he will make more backs or lays.

You don't have to follow Steve in any way, and if he does back a winner sometimes it's best to be pleased or say nothing at all. I don't want to be too critical but you sound a tad bitter. Remember, gambling, although always a risk, should also always be a form of enjoyment, whoever wins.

Good luck with your bets this week.
Justsomeone | 07 April 2011

As someone who has followed this bloke for years on Betfair, I can assure you, Pokerface, that he very often gets it right - and he has absolutely no reason to fiddle with anything.
Steven Rawlings | 07 April 2011

Thanks for your support guys, much appreciated.
David McTavish | 07 April 2011

The purpose of blogs is largely to provide interesting reading so to encourage punters to get involved. Fair play to Betfair for having the commercial intelligence to do it.

As for PokerFace, I will never criticise such folk.He sounds a classic mug punter assuming he can find someone to provide an endless stream of winners.

But the truth is we need thousands of mug punters to keep the whole business of laying and or trading going.As they desert the high street bookies, they should be welcomed to Betfair.

So go easy him...
Tony P. | 07 April 2011

What about Quiros?! Extremely Exceptional Round! I did not bet him - went with Watney, but I would love to see the Spaniard win........he owes me nothing! Best of Luck this weekend! TP