The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 07 April 2010 /

The Punter thinks it's time to leave Tiger alone, but does he think he can win? Read his US Masters preview here....

The wait is almost over and we're now just hours away from one of the most eagerly awaited golf tournaments of all time, and the big question is...

Why isn't Tano Goya defending his Madeira Open title?

What do you mean you don't care? If I'm honest nor do I, though I will be backing my ole mate Jorge Campillo in Madeira...But of course, this week is all about one event and maybe even one man...

The US Masters has a really strange feel about it this year, and has done for months for me, I really haven't had a strong feel or fancy for the event at any stage, and with just a day to go before kick-off I still feel like that. Anyway that's enough negativity; let's start in the obvious place, with Tiger Woods...

It was really good to see his press conference go so well on Monday; I was starting to get a bit fed up with the constant bad press he was getting. Yes he's done wrong, very wrong, but none of it was my business or anyone else's. If he'd found his fame and fortune by appearing on some crappy reality TV show then maybe he'd deserve the stick but he's a sportsman not some imbecile courting fame. And yes he's been curt with the media for far too long, so maybe a bit of stick was inevitable but I thought he was getting far too much criticism and hopefully now we can all concentrate on his golf game.

So at around [6.0], is he a back or a lay...? It has to be the former for me, in fact I took some [5.8] last week. The bottom line is that nobody, including Woods himself, can really know how he'll play after such an unusual hiatus to his career and I certainly haven't gone mad, but I felt he had to be included in my staking plan.

I've been messing around with the market for a few weeks now; trying to get certain players onside as they 'hopefully' run into form and one such player is Phil Mickelson. Lefty has been in my Masters portfolio for a few years now and rightly so. His course form is second only to Woods but after dipping in and out on him several times, all I've managed to do is get him onside at the very same price he trades at now...

I can't say I'm overly confident about his chances this year, he hasn't appeared to be in control of his game for months now, but I wasn't prepared to risk leaving him out completely. He's in the portfolio, but not to the stakes of previous years.

My next two picks, Martin Kaymer and Nick Watney, are both players that I can see donning a green jacket at some stage in their careers. If I'm totally honest I'd be slightly surprised if it was to be as soon as this year, but I still feel they're worth backing. I had a result with Watney, as I backed him a few weeks ago at [95.0], before laying off at [55.0] and I've gone in again at [75.0], albeit only modestly, but because of the earlier trades, a Watney win would be welcome indeed.

KJ Choi's Augusta form is a little regressive; he's not really shone here since his 3rd placed finish in 2004, with a tie for 27th in 2007 being his best effort. But he's in a rich vein of form at present and he's been a regular pick of mine for the last few weeks. He was added to the portfolio a week ago at [110.0].

Another player backed last week was Chad Campbell, at a price I thought very fair - [130.0]. He's a fair bit shorter now but still looks fairly priced. Chad has shown a real aptitude for Augusta and already has a second and third place to his name. He's also playing fairly well at present and if I was to pick one player I'd be most confident of a good showing at a fair price, he'd be the one.

It's hard to see YE Yang winning two majors on the spin, especially given his poor record to date of a missed cut and a tied 30th, but he's also been included in my bets, simply on price. The market continues to ignore him and while it does, for modest enough stakes, I'll keep backing him.

That's it for now, though I could have quite easily backed three or four more. Paul Casey, Anthony Kim, Geoff Ogilvy, and Matt Kuchar were all carefully considered but you can't back them all.

Selections:

Tiger Woods @ [5.8]
Phil Mickelson @ [15.5]
Martin Kaymer @ [55.0]
Nick Watney @ [75.0]
KJ Choi @ [110.0]
Chad Campbell @ [130.0]
YE Yang @ [210.0]

In addition to my outright bets, I've also had a few plays in some of the speciality markets, which you'll find detailed in the US Masters section.

I'll be doing daily updates this week, starting on Friday morning, when I'll try not to write too much about you know who. I'm not particularly confident, but then that may not be a bad thing, who knows? I know I'm looking forward to it though, whoever ends up with the green jacket, as always, it's going to be a tremendous event.

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