The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 24 November 2009 /

Steve rejects last year's letdowns - England - and roots out his idea of value...

The Casio World Open takes place in Japan this week but I'm not going to play the event - I don't follow the Japanese Tour anywhere near closely enough and I'd really just be guessing. So, for now, I'm going to concentrate on the Omega World Cup.

I'm not a massive fan of team golf, and especially team golf played in the middle of the night, and I can't argue with the decision to demote the event from its World Golf Championship status. Its replacement, the HSBC Champions, fits the bill much better.

Having said all that, I'll be up bright and early on Sunday morning to see which nation's successful and if I'm on the winners I'll no doubt enjoy it immensely!

For the third consecutive year, the event is staged at the Mission Hills resort in China, where Scotland edged out the USA pairing two years ago and where the Swedes, Henrik Stenson and Robert Karlsson, were successful 12 months ago.

The defending champions keep the same pairing and have every chance, but at a single figure price they don't quite make the staking plan. Stenson isn't in great form at present, while Karlsson's play-off defeat in Japan on Sunday was the first sign of encouragement from him since he returned to action following his bizarre eye injury.

Last year I confidently backed the English pairing of Ross Fisher and Ian Poulter. The latter was coming into the event fresh from a tremendous performance in the Ryder Cup, but the pairing let me down badly and they were out of it after day one. I can see them improving considerably this time around but after last year's experience I've looked elsewhere.

The Irish pairing of Graeme McDowell and Rory McIlroy teamed up superbly at the recent Vivendi Trophy and the good friends make a formidable team. However, there's little value in their price either considering how tough Rory's last few weeks have been, and they too are overlooked.

I also considered the Germans but I'm a bit worried that Martin Kaymer may be a bit flat after last week's disappointing effort in Dubai. Whilst, the Danes, Spanish and Australians are all rated big dangers and the US team always have to be respected in this event, but my main bet this week is on the Italians.

The Molinari brothers represented their country here last year but didn't exactly cover themselves in glory with a lacklustre tied 19th finish, and that has to be a negative. But they've had a tremendous year, with the younger of the two, Francesco, who's been in fine form of late, finishing a lofty 14th in the Race to Dubai. While Eduardo, comes here fresh from his play-off defeat of Robert Karlsson in Japan, having just finished a magnificent season on the Challenge Tour, where he won three times and finished top of the money list. Few golfers will come here in higher spirits than Eduardo and the brothers could just be value at [19.0].

In addition to the Italians I've also taken a chance on the young Argentine duo of Rafa Echenique and Tano Goya. Over the years it hasn't paid to stray too far from the fancied teams but just recently there have been a few shocks. Wales in '05, Germany in '06 and Scotland in '07 were all unexpected winners and at a triple figure price I can see this exciting pair getting involved.

Selections:
Italy @ [19.0]
Argentina @ [110.0]

I hope I don't have a repeat of last year but, whatever happens, I'll post an update on Friday.

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