The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 17 November 2009 /

Steve's tried to solve the tricky Race to Dubai finale puzzle, but even if he fails, at least he'll get some kip this week...

The season long Race to Dubai ends this week with the Dubai World Championship, at the brand new Greg Norman designed Earth Course in Dubai, and I'm really looking forward to it.

I'm looking forward to watching how the new course plays and of course, seeing who actually ends up winning the inaugural Race to Dubai. But the real bonus is that it's on at a time of day that's just perfect. With the weekend leaders starting just as I would be getting up anyway, it will be all over and done with in time to do something else with the weekend and in contrast to the last few weeks, I won't be completely knackered!

As for whom to back in the event, well I've struggled. A top class field on a brand new track can only equal a tricky puzzle but I've tried...

I started off by looking at those players still able to win the Race to Dubai - Rory McIlroy, Lee Westwood, Martin Kaymer, and Ross Fisher and I concluded that the pressure of trying to finish top of the pile could well have an adverse effect. But then I considered how well Kaymer plays in this part of the world and I felt, even given this possible negative, I simply couldn't leave him out.

For the last four years Kaymer's been spending the winter months in Phoenix, Arizona and the dry dessert heat seems to prepare him perfectly for the conditions in Abu Dhabi. His 4th placed finish in the Dubai Desert Classic, back in January, is his worst performance in his last four tournaments in this part of the world.

He's returned from an enforced injury lay-off in good form and didn't play in Hong Kong last week so he could spend time acclimatising to the new venue. I like Kaymer, I think he's going places and he would be a worthy winner of the Race to Dubai.

Rory McIlroy looks plenty short enough for someone with just one win to his name and I may be being ultra critical but not only is he still putting poorly, I still don't trust him in contention. I really didn't like the way he played the penultimate hole last week, he was in the groove, playing impeccably and I believe it was no coincidence that he fouled up just as the jam-stick came into view. That said the market really does love him, he's in good heart and may well trade much shorter, but he's not for me.

Westwood had a poor week with the putter in Hong Kong but that's totally excusable. Fanling's grainy greens take some getting used to, but he still makes no appeal given he's only won once in over two years.

The last of the possible Race to Dubai winners is Ross Fisher, whose length should be an advantage around here but I haven't yet forgiven him for his alarming collapse at the Mercedes Benz Championship. I know he's in form and has just won the World Match Play but I'm steering clear of him until I see vast improvement in contention in a stroke play event.

My second pick is hardly a surprise...With the course being the 2nd longest ever to be used on the European Tour the first name that sprang to mind was Alvaro Quiros. I'm a big Alvaro fan but I've been very disappointed in him recently, having been aboard when he went AWOL in the third rounds of both the Portugal Masters and the HSBC Champions. I had him down as one of the most mentally strong players I'd ever seen up until then but after those woeful efforts the jury's out. But at [55.0] he was worth chancing.

After that I've just plumped for five generously priced outsiders. The old season ender, the Volvo Masters, would often serve up a decent priced winner and in a season that has produced numerous shock winners, I wouldn't be at all surprised if we finished with an apt bumper priced winner here.

Paul Krishnamurthy makes a great case for Dubai resident Johan Edfors in his 'Find Me A 100 Winner' piece and I've followed him in, and I've also backed four players who have already won this year that look a shade too big to me.

Selections;

Martin Kaymer @ [17.0]
Alvaro Quiros @ [55.0]
Johan Edfors @ [190.0]
Rafael Cabrera-Bello @ [280.0]
James Kingston @ [280.0]
Peter Hedblom @ [340.0]
Richard Sterne @ [350.0]

I'll post an update on Friday afternoon after the completion of round two.

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