The Punter's In-Play Blog: Bryson poised for third title in five starts
Bryson DeChambeau looks poised to win the Shriners and it looks like a damage limitation job for our man and his book. Read Steve's final in-play update of the week here...
"DeChambeau has won three of his last 11 tournaments and two of his last four so he’s rapidly becoming a bit of a machine and the tournament stats are in his favour too."
12:10 - November 04, 2018
The Turkish Airlines Open is drawing to a close live on Sky and I'll look back at that event tomorrow in the de-brief but for now I'm concentrating on the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. Here are the latest standings after three rounds, prices to back at midday, and how much each contender wins or loses in my book.
Bryson DeChambeau -16 [2.58] -373
Peter Uihlein -16 [6.0] -230
Lucas Glover -15 [10.5] +804
Patrick Cantlay -14 [7.2] -75
Robert Streb -14 [24.0] +804
Cameron Champ -13 [10.0] -79
-12 and [50.0]
Although I was busy all afternoon yesterday and out all evening, I was still keeping an eye on the scores and I was daft enough to lay a bit more on Bryson DeChambeau after he'd played the 16th at [2.8]. I thought that was a little short given he was odds-on to finish par-par but a birdie at the last has seen him shorten up and he's most definitely the one they all have to beat now.
DeChambeau has won three of his last 11 tournaments and two of his last four so he's rapidly becoming a bit of a machine and the tournament stats are in his favour too.
Smylie Kaufman won here three years ago having began the final round seven off the lead and tied for 28th but he's very much the odd man out as 11 of the last 12 winners have been inside the top-four places with a round to go. I'm obviously hoping for some Smylie style shenanigans but I'm certainly not expecting any and it looks like a damage limitation exercise is on the cards tonight. I'll be back tomorrow with all the details in the De-brief.
15:45 - November 03, 2018
Birdies at four, five and six, saw halfway leader, Justin Rose, hit a low of [1.52] but three balls found the water on the back-nine and he played the last six holes in two-over-par. It was a poor finish from the defending champion and China's Haotong Li is very much the man to beat now. Here are the latest standings with prices to back at 15:40.
Haotong Li -17 [1.98]
Justin Rose -14 [4.2]
Alex Levy -14 [11.5]
Thorbjørn Olesen -13 [10.5]
Sam Horsfield -12 [50.0]
Danny Willett -12 [55.0]
Tommy Fleetwood -11 [42.0]
Thomas Aiken -11 [210.0]
-10 and [150.0] bar
Helped greatly by this tremendous eagle two at the 10th, Haotong Li will now take a three-stroke lead into the fourth and final round tomorrow and he might just take some stopping.
Since 1996, 88 players have led by three strokes after three rounds on the European Tour and 62 of them went on to win. That equates to 70% and they've been especially prolific of late with 12 of the last 14 obliging - including Eddie Pepperell at the British Masters only last month.
Li is a shade of odds-on and it's impossible to argue those odds are wrong given the stats and how well Li has played in-contention before. He didn't flinch when holding off Rory McIlroy in Dubai in January and he used to be a machine from the front as a youngster in his homeland. The fact that he needs to back up a low round today and that he has some very good rivals breathing down his neck counts against him but he's a fair price and the one they all have to beat.
With in-play picks, Alex Levy and Thorbjørn Olesen nicely placed should Li stutter, and with pre-event pick, Sam Horsfield, tied for fifth and not entirely out of it, I'm not going to get any further involved here. Li is the man to beat and his price is perfectly fair but I'm happy to leave the event alone and see what tomorrow brings.
After a stuttering start to his second round, Peter Uihlein went clear on the back-nine and he'll take a two-stroke lead in to the weekend at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. Having been matched at a high of [270.0] and having gone off at around [220.0], Uihlein wasn't one of the top-20 in the market that I layed before the off but I've got him in the book now, at [5.8].
Uihlein has never led at this stage on the PGA Tour but he's been leading or tied for the lead eight times previously on either the European Tour or the Challenge Tour and he failed to convert on every occasion so I'm happy to get him layed and see what today brings. I've updated my book below.
20:10 - November 02, 2018
The two course winners in the field at the Turkish Airlines Open this week, Justin Rose and Thorbjørn Olesen, went to the final hole of round two tied for the lead but a two-shot swing, thanks to a Rose birdie and Olesen bogey, has resulted in last year's winner firming up at the head of the market ahead of the 2016 champ. Here are the standings at halfway, with prices to back at 20:00.
Justin Rose -12 [2.02]
Thorbjørn Olesen -10 [7.2]
Tom Lewis -10 [14.5]
Dany Willett -10 [25.0]
Haotong Li -9 [15.5]
Alex Levy -9 [34.0]
Sam Horsfield -9 [40.0]
Adrian Otaegui -9 [70.0]
Tommy Fleetwood -8 [16.0]
-8 and [40.0] bar
Given he was a very warm favourite before the off, the fact that Rose has already traded at odds-on is hardly surprising and he could very easily run away from the field, notch his 23rd pro win and return to the top of the world rankings but I'm happy to take him on.
He failed miserably to close out the BMW Championship in September, where nearly £200,000 was matched on him at [1.1] and below and he hit a low of [1.03] before losing a playoff to Keegan Bradley. Rose is a fabulous player but he can put in the odd iffy performance in contention and if he puts in a shaky round tomorrow he'll get swamped.
Only 37% of two-stroke 36-hole leaders have converted on the European Tour since 1996 and the last seven were all beaten but I'm not really taking those stats in to account. How many of those to lead by two were well-backed 9/2 favourites before the off?
I toyed with laying Rose at evens but instead I've decided to have modest bets on Olesen and Alex Levy. Both are considerably bigger on the Exchange than they are on the High Street, and Olesen is far and away the most likely to benefit from a Rose meltdown. Levy's a far more speculative pick, reflected in his price, but he's more than capable and he knows how to win.
Over at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open, I modestly layed the market leaders that I'd layed before the off again this morning so the figures have changed (see below) and I'll take another look at the halfway stage.
16:35 - November 01, 2018
With perfect greens and benign conditions, scoring was very good on day one of the Turkish Airlines Open and the favourites have already come to the fore. Here's the leaderboard after round one with prices to back at 16:30.
Paul Dunne -7 [19.0]
Justin Rose -6 [3.6]
Thorbjørn Olesen -6 [6.6]
Padraig Harrington -6 [19.5]
Haotong Li -5 [15.0]
Kiradech Aphibarnrat -5 [16.0]
Martin Kaymer -5 [10.0]
Lee Westwood -5 [32.0]
Sam Horsfield -5 [55.0]
Thomas Detry -5 [60.0]
Ashun Wu -5 [90.0]
-4 and [20.0] bar
Warm pre-tournament favourite and defending champion, Justin Rose didn't shoot out of the gates at a rapid rate of knots and with others getting off to super-fast starts he even drifted out to as far as [7.2], having been nicely backed before the off to around [5.8], but he soon got on a roll after this happened on the fourth!
The world number two built on that stroke of genius/good fortune and he's clearly the man to beat but the 2016 course winner, Thorbjørn Olesen, who was backed right down to [12.0] before the off, from an opening high of [19.0], is alongside the Englishman.
With the likes of Haotong Li, Kiradech Aphibarnrat and Mike Norman's each-way fancy, Padraig Harrington, all in-the-mix too, there are few surprises on the leaderboard. A couple of my picks, Sam Horsfield (-5) and Matt Wallace (-4), have started OK and if last year is anything to go by, they're certainly not out of it just yet. As highlighted in the In-Play Tactics section of the preview, Rose started slowly last year and he was five off the lead after round one.
It's hard to see passed the fancied runners but China's Ashun Wu, who's a great scrambler, was someone I considered before the off given Scrambling looked a key stat, and he's far too big after a decent start at anything above [80.0]. He's already won three times on the European Tour and the last of his three victories was just three starts ago at the KLM Open.
The Shriners Hospitals for Children Open has only just started in Las Vegas and as set out in the preview, I've decided to get laying there. I've taken on the first 20 in the market and I'm just going to let that one roll for now too.
Turkish Airline Open Pre-Event Selections:
Matt Wallace @ [42.0]
Lucas Herbert @ [46.0]
Alexander Bjork @ [65.0]
Sam Horsfield @ [110.0]
Matthias Schwab @ [200.0]
Ashun Wu @ [95.0]
Thorbjørn Olesen @ [7.6]
Alex Levy @ [36.0]
Shriners Pre-Event Selection:
Scott Piercy each-way @ 66/1
Shriners Lay Book
20 Players layed before the off
Best case scenario - Win £521
Worst case scenario - Lose £384
Shriners Lay Book after round one
20 Players layed in total
Best case scenario - Win £585
Worst case scenario - Lose £466
Shriners Lay Book after round two
21 Players layed in total
Best case scenario - Win £756
Worst case scenario - Lose £286
Shriners Lay Book after round three
21 Players layed in total
Best case scenario - Win £804
Worst case scenario - Lose £373
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