The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 01 April 2012 /

He's out of the game in Sicily but Steve's really looking forward to tonight's final round in Texas, where another off the pace winner is far from out of the question...

10:05 - April 1, 2012

I haven't got a handle on the Sicily Open at any stage and I'm not going to waste anymore energy or cash on it now. After a blustery third round, Thorbjorn Olesen has hit the front and he takes a three shot lead over Nicholas Colsaerts and Andrew Parr into today's final round.

The young Dane has been a pick on numerous occasions at big odds but I have no regrets about not backing him here and I'd quite like to see him get off the mark. He has the potential to be one of the game's elite so it would be nice to see him finish this event off in style. Not that it'll be easy. Winning never is and winning for the first time doubly so. At around [2.2] the price looks about right to me and it's now a no bet heat. It's all very different across the pond however...

The Shell Houston Open looks set up beautifully to me and I can definitely sense another off the pace stateside Sunday sensation. We've seen plenty of winners finishing with a late rattle to overtake the third round pacesetters on the PGA Tour this year and this looks primed for another.

Thankfully, I've already got the leader, Louis Oosthuizen, onside at [10.5] but I wouldn't want to know him now at less than [2.5]. He's far from reliable and even with a two-stroke lead, on a score of -17; he looks vulnerable to me, but vulnerable to whom?

Alone in second place is Hunter Mahan and he can be awful in-contention and the two players tied in third, three behind Oosty, Carl Pettersson and Brian Davis are also both readily opposable, so I've now backed the next four on the leaderboard.

Five off the lead on -12 is James Driscoll, who has never won a PGA Tour event. He's come close a couple of times though; losing in two playoffs and one of them was in this state. He lost to Zach Johnson at the Texas Open back in 2009. If the leading pack does wobble, he could feasibly finish on top of the pile and he was definitely over-priced at [70.0].

One shot further back are Ryan Palmer, Phil Mickelson and Keegan Bradley. Palmer's a multiple winner who'd love to win in his home state and he looked far too big at [80.0] and playing together, the other two could really get things going.

Lefty was a pre-event pick anyway but I couldn't resist a little top-up at [20.0] this morning. Last year he opened up with two rounds of 70 before shooting 63 and 65 on the weekend. So far this time around he's shot two rounds of 70 and a 65. He'll probably need a 63 today to match last year's scoring but he's more than capable.

Mickelson and Bradley have been pals since Phil mentored Bradley through his rookie season and they play a lot of practice rounds together. I can easily envisage the two really enjoying the day and I can see plenty of high-fiving as they birdie their way round in a relaxed manner. At [30.0], I felt I had to cover Bradley too.

Having layed my pre-event Lefty bet back, my exposure here isn't massive so if Mahan, Pettersson or Davis does win it certainly won't be the end of the world and I'm quite looking forward to what could be a fun night.

I'll be back tomorrow with my De-Brief but before then, make sure you check out our US Masters section where there's plenty of reading ahead of the year's first major.

22:05 - March 30, 2012

It's been a long, boring and tiring day spent almost entirely tied to the laptop but it's been worth the effort.

I started out this morning with three pre-event picks in fair positions after day one of the Sicily Open. Day two ended with precisely no pre-event picks in-contention. Not that I'm moaning. It just goes to show how fickle this game is. In stark contrast, after day one in Morocco last week I thought I was out of the game completely, yet Michael Hoey recovered from a seemingly impossible position to win the event - swings and roundabouts and all that.

We've reached halfway in Sicily now and I've just about conceded defeat, for now anyway. With six players tied for the lead on -8, seven a shot back in a tie for 7th and a full dozen sitting on -6, it's nigh on impossible and discretion looks likely to be the better part of valour - though I have had a couple of very small in-running wagers. I've had small win bets on both Garth Mulroy and Richard Green. Both players are amongst the group on -7.

At the Shell Houston Open I've been closely monitoring my pre-event pick, Phil Mickelson, since he started playing today at 1.30pm. He came back to finish off round one, which he did very well, and now he's finishing up round two and I've just about had enough for one day. It's been worth the effort though.

Lefty tied for the lead after round one and although, like me, he appears to be running out of steam for the day now, he's still right up there and I've managed to lay back my stake on him at an average of [3.80], which was pretty decent considering the lowest he's been matched at is [3.25], and for money of any sort of note, [3.45].

I've also added Louis Oosthuizen now, who's just hit the front on -11. At [10.5], I haven't got a great price considering I've been watching him move menacingly into the mix for the last couple of hours. I've sort of been hoping he'd go away but I eventually came to the conclusion he wasn't going to. Of course, he probably will now!

Play should go on until the small hours (UK time) but I'm going to call it a day now, I'm shattered. I'll have another look in the morning and see where I stand. Keep going Phil, even if I can't!

14.55 - March 30, 2012

Phil Mickelson is making a nice early move at the Shell Houston Open. He's now four-under par through eight holes and his price for next week's US Masters might just be about to go.

If you were intending to back Lefty for a fourth win at Augusta, now might be the time to do so.

12:05 - March 30, 2012

You really do have to laugh. Guess who bogeyed two holes straight after I'd written "Another of my picks, Scott Jamieson has just started out in round two on -4 and I'd like to think he can get involved (that's him jinxed then!) but we'll see."

11:55 - March 30, 2012

I'll start with events across the pond first, where play was suspended thanks to some pretty nasty weather. Thunder stopped play at around 1.30pm (7.30pm UK time) and flooded fairways following heavy rain prevented any further action.

Only one of my three picks managed to get finished and that was Stuart Appleby, who shot +2. Graham DeLaet has been most unlucky; he has to set his alarm to return to the track early, at 7.30am (1.30pm UK time) to negotiate a three foot par putt on the 9th, his final hole of round one. At least he's on a decent score though, should he tap that in, he'll be just two out of the lead - set jointly by Carl Pettersson and Angel Cabrera, who both shot -7.

My only other pick, Phil Mickelson, has only played three holes so far but at least he's under par having birdied the 1st. It's going to be a long day for those that started yesterday afternoon, or were due to. Nine groups haven't even started round one yet and a couple of groups have only just teed off.

There's a distinct possibility that those that have finished round one already, won't play at all today and they may have had a bit of a result. The organisers are going to be hard-pressed to get this finished on time now. With the US Masters starting on Thursday, the plan remains to get the event done and dusted by 5.00pm on Sunday so the players can get to Augusta in good time. They won't want anymore interruptions.

It's been a curious start to the Sicily Open where, with the wind switching and the weather warming, the afternoon starters shot an average of 1.3 strokes less than the morning guys on day one. Then, for much of this morning, playing in what appear benign conditions, nobody seems to be kicking on.

Day one ended with Peter Lawrie in front on -8, one ahead of Jamie Donaldson, Soren Kjeldsen and Tano Goya and as I write, the first of the morning starters are ending their rounds and the lead is still only -8.

The best of my picks so far is James Morrison, who was on -7 when the coverage ended last night before he bogeyed the last and then this morning, he's only level par for round two so far. That's more than a little disappointing but at least he traded short enough to reach the first lay-back target set in the Find Me a 100 Winner column. Albeit only just.

Another of my picks, Scott Jamieson has just started out in round two on -4 and I'd like to think he can get involved (that's him jinxed then!) but we'll see. It's going to be a busy day, so I'll probably post again at some point.

Sicilian Open Pre-Event Selections:
Tommy Fleetwood @ [70.0]
Scott Jamieson @ [70.0]
James Morrison @ [160.0]

In-Play bets
Richard Green @ [16.0]
Garth Mulroy @ [38.0]

Shell Houston Pre-Event Selections:
Phil Mickelson @ [14.5]
Graham DeLaet @ [230.0]
Stuart Appleby @ [250.0]

In-Play bets
Layed Phil Mickelson @ [3.80]
Louis Oosthuizen @ [10.5]
Phil Mickeslon @ [20.0]
Keegan Bradley @ [30.0]
James Driscoll @ [70.0]
Ryan Palmer @ [80.0]

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