The Punter's In-Play Blog: Can Jamieson get the job done?

Steven Rawlings
15 December 2018

Pablo Larrazabal – looking to charge in round four

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Scott Jamieson takes a narrow lead in to round four of the Alfred Dunhill Championship tomorrow morning and our man's looking to take him on. Read his take on the fourth and final round in South Africa here...

“The last six editions have all gone to a South Africans but with Pablo Martin winning back-to-back in 2010 and 2011, and with Alvaro Quiros taking the title 12 years ago, the Spanish don’t have a bad record either, and I thought four-time European Tour winner, Pablo Larrazabal, might represent a bit of value at around 25/1.”

19:45 - December 15, 2017

Scott Jamieson has edged ahead of halfway leader, David Lipsky, at the Alfred Dunhill Championship with a round to go and according to the market, he's now the man to beat. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 19:35.

Scott Jamieson -11 3.412/5
David Lipsky -10 5.95/1
Brandon Stone -8 5.49/2
Zander Lombard -8 12.5
Pablo Larrazabal -7 27.026/1
Marc Warren -7 30.029/1
David Drysdale -7 34.033/1
Raphael Jacquelin -7 44.043/1
Louis Oosthuizen -6 16.5
Christiaan Bezuidenhout -6 70.069/1
Niklas Lemke -6 170.0169/1
-5 and 60.059/1 bar

Scott Jamieson has a fantastic record in South Africa and his one and only title to date was won at Royal Durban back in 2012 but he really isn't one to side with - with any confidence. His victory in the now defunct Nelson Mandela Championship was earnt in strange circumstances given the event was shortened to just 36 holes and on the four occasions he's led or co-led through three rounds, he's failed to convert every time.

At 35, he may not have too many more great chances to win a 72-hole event and knowing that won't help his cause tomorrow. To his credit, he didn't do an awful lot wrong at the Nedbank Golf Challenge last November when he went form one in front after three rounds to one behind after round four but his first three attempts to convert were woeful and he's not for me at around 5/2.

David Lipsky rallied nicely in round three, with back-to-back birdies at 17 and 18, to close the gap to just one, and if forced to choose between the two leaders at their respective prices, I'd rather play the American over Jamieson but I'm quite confident the defending champ, and pre-event pick, Brandon Stone, can mount a challenge. Odds in excess of 4/1 look fair at this stage so I'm not laying anything back just yet but I have added two more...

As highlighted in the preview, the last six editions have all gone to a South Africans but with Pablo Martin winning back-to-back in 2010 and 2011, and with Alvaro Quiros taking the title 12 years ago, the Spanish don't have a bad record either, and I thought four-time European Tour winner, Pablo Larrazabal, might represent a bit of value at around 25/1. Scrambling has been the key stat here of late and Pablo ranks fifth so far this week for that stat. He won't quite fell the pressure as much as the leaders but from just four back, he's close enough to take the title should Jamieson, Lipsky and co wobble.

Last week's winner, Louis Oosthuizen, trails by five and he'll have his supporters at 16.015/1 but his scrambling and putting stats have been poor so far this week and, on the same score, I'd rather chance fellow South African, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, at a much juicier price.

With a round to go in Jakarta, the 2016 Indonesian Masters winner, Poom Saksansin, has moved three clear of Henrik Stenson with the defending champion, Justin Rose, now seven off the lead, one adrift of Jazz Janewattananond in third. Here's the leaderboard with prices to back at 19:40.

Poom Saksansin -16 2.26/5
Henrik Stenson -13 2.3611/8
Jazz Janewattananond -10 36.035/1
Justin Rose -9 16.5
-9 and 100.099/1 bar

The three market leaders have all been matched at odds-on already so it's been an event for the layers so far and taking on the favourite now may pay dividends. The more experienced Henrik Stenson could soon reel in the leader and if forced to pick between the two I'd play the Swede but I haven't given up on Justin Rose just yet. He opened up and closed last year's event with ten-under-par 63s so a successful defence isn't inconceivable and given he's no bigger than 11/1 on the High Street, odds of around 16.015/1 are more than fair.

21:25 - December 14, 2017

We've reached the halfway stage of the Alfred Dunhill Championship and David Lipsky shows the way but he's being followed closely by four Scotsmen and a host of strongly-fancied South Africans. Here's the 36 hole leaderboard with prices to back at 21:15.

David Lipsky -8 10.09/1
Scott Jamieson -7 12.011/1
Marc Warren -7 13.5
David Drysdale -6 27.026/1
Doug McGuigan -6 100.099/1
Dylan Frittelli -5 8.88/1
Brandon Stone -5 9.08/1
Darren Fichardt -5 34.033/1
Oliver Wilson -5 36.035/1
Oliver Bekker -5 50.049/1
Dimitrios Papadatos -5 60.059/1
Louis Oosthuizen -4 8.27/1
Erik Van Rooyen -4 20.019/1
Sean Crocker -4 36.035/1
-4 and 55.054/1 bar

Although he's already won a couple of titles from off the pace- the Cambodia Classic in 2012 and the European Masters two years later - this is the first time David Lipsky has led after any round since the 2012 Johor Open but that didn't end well. The tournament was reduced to just 54 holes but Lipsky finished 48th! That was a long time ago now though and the 30-year-old American is vastly more experienced now. Even so, whether he's value at around 9/1 is debatable and others are preferred.

Of the four Scots tied for second and tied for fourth, I'd plump for Marc Warren if forced to pick one but I fancy the big dangers to the leader are amongst those three and four adrift...

When the second round ended, my pre-event pick and defending champ, Brandon Stone, was made favourite but the market has understandably adjusted since. Pre-tournament favourite, and last week's South African Open winner, Louis Oosthuizen, heads the market and so he should.

I was tempted to play Oosthuizen, who's trading at a bigger price now than he did before the off, but I'm going to leave the event alone and see what tomorrow brings. The leaders look vulnerable and I'd have liked to have found a bet, but with 14 players three and four off the lead, it's still extremely competitive.

Over at the Indonesian Masters, round two didn't quite get finished earlier so we haven't quite reached the halfway stage but the 2016 winner, Poom Saksansin, has moved three clear of the field. Here are the lastest standings with prices to back at 21:20.

Poom Saksansin -14 3.55/2
Suradit Yongcharoenchai -11 25.024/1
Jakraphan Premsirigorn -11 50.049/1
Henrik Stenson -9 3.711/4
Justin Rose -8 3.412/5
-8 and 65.064/1 bar

Justin Rose is still the man to beat according to the market but he's been treading water after a great start to round one. Incredibly, he's already been matched at just 1.75/7 but after he'd raced to six-under-par after 12 holes of round one, he played the next 24 in just two-under.

It's very hard to look beyond the front three in the market and it's also extremely difficult to pick which one of the three will win, so again, I'm going to sit on my hands for now and I'll be back tomorrow with another look at both events.

Alfred Dunhill Championship Pre-Event Selection:
Brandon Stone @ 32.031/1

In-Play Picks
Pablo Larrazabal @ 26.025/1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout @ 70.069/1

Indonesian Masters Pre-Event Selection:
Justin rose @ 15/8 (Sportsbook)

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter