The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 08 November 2008 /

Mickelson apart - the winners will come from some pretty long shots for Steve in this week's golf betting.

With the first event of the Race To Dubai in China it was an early start on Thursday morning and having extricated myself out of bed just after five, switched on pc, kettle and TV, I soon wished I hadn't bothered. None of my somewhat speculative selections were threatening the lead, or even the top 20.

I sleepily observed the last couple of hour's play and pondered my next move.
The day ended with Henrik Stenson shaking off his poor run of form to lead on -8, with his sudden rise in fortune almost certainly due to him ditching his wayward driver, preferring his more reliable three wood.

I was really tempted to wade in on Phil Mickelson, who was in a tie for second alongside Garcia, Kim and Scott and trading at around [6.0]. In the end I showed restraint and instead I made a modest play on Robert Karlsson at [27.0] who was four off the lead.

With poor weather forecast for the second round I didn't get up at a ridiculous time on Friday morning and so far that's probably my wisest decision of the week as the entire day's play was lost.

Up at six this morning and the only good news was that they were playing, well all bar Karlsson were. My latest addition to the portfolio was three over par for the day and well and truly out of it.

Geoff Ogilvy was having a good day and was climbing the leaderboard at a rate of knots. Stenson plodded along, Kim went AWOL, and Garcia was making par after par until the run ended with an eagle on the 14th, when the Spaniard quipped 'Still no birdies!' But the player who impressed was Mickelson.

He wasn't making the putts his immaculate iron play deserved but he'd clearly turned up for his defence fully tuned up.

I'd spent the entire morning nearly backing him, but I never felt he was quite a fair enough price. Then in true Lefty style he played a horrendous tee shot on the par-three 17th which led to a bogey, his price drifted dramatically and I took the plunge. Hoping for a birdie on the par 5 last, I backed him at an average of [5.4].

Unfortunately, the birdie didn't materialise and he's available at bigger now but I'm happy enough about his prospects just a couple of the lead.

Pleasingly, Alvaro Quiros had a fine second round and with two rounds to go he's closed to within three of the lead, held by Garcia and Stenson on -10. And there will be two further rounds, a probable Monday finish and the organisers have confirmed that it will be a 72-hole event.

Over in the States my initial picks have fared little better than those in China. Ben Crane has another MC in his form figures and I really need to leave him alone now.

Ryan Palmer recovered from a very slow start and Y E Yang started OK but they're both eight shots off the lead held by Scott Verplank on -16.

Verplank leads by three but he isn't a player I'd want to go taking a short price about with two rounds to go so there must be value somewhere and I've had a couple of further bets.

Troy Matteson, three off the lead in a tie for 2nd, should have been in a stronger position but finished his second round tamely and looks a smidgen over priced at [10.5]. I've backed him accordingly.

I've also backed last year's winner Stephen Ames. He's a long way back alongside Yang and Palmer on -8 but he can go on birdie streaks at will and could plausibly close the gap should such a streak occur and he shouldn't be as big as the [120.0] I've taken on him.

So there's a long way to go in both events and two more early mornings have to be endured, if I can keep awake I'll post a review on Monday.

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