The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 12 September 2009 /

Steve's struggling again this week. He's missed the Tiger Woods boat and isn't too hopeful of success in Germany, but can Ross Fisher get him back on track?

There's no doubt about it, all of a sudden I'm out of form. In fact, as the saying sort of goes, I'm about as cold as a suspicious looking old lady's mammary gland and I'm starting to lose confidence.

After a couple of blank weeks, stakes have been kept low and it's probably a good job too. None of my pre-event picks have impressed at the Mercedes-Benz Championship and I added to my woes after day one with a couple more stray bullets.

Nick Dougherty has plenty of form at the Golf Club Gut Lärchenhof but he's been in poor form of late so I ignored him from the start, but I added him to the portfolio, at [40.0], after a reasonable first round when he shot a three under par 69. Unfortunately, his form nose-dived again yesterday and he's now a lost cause.

I also backed Daniel Vancsik after day one, after he too opened up with a 69, but he shot a lacklustre level par yesterday and it looks highly likely that that was a waste of money too.

Ross Fisher had also tempted me after day one. He was two shots off Soren Hansen's lead and was trading at [7.6]. I thought that was a reasonable price but waited to see how he started round two and when he birdied the third hole I was more than happy to take [7.4]. And when he birdied three of his next four holes I was in clover, but it wasn't to last.

A stumbling, disappointing, back nine followed, where he made two bogeys and a solitary birdie but he still ended yesterday just one shot off the lead, now held by Scot Strange and Chris Wood.

I'm not sure I'd rush to back him now at a couple of points lower but I'm not about to lay him back yet either.

If the first day at the Mercedes-Benz was bad, day one at the BMW was awful! When I wrote my preview on Tuesday night my only bet had been a modest wager on Zach Johnson but the player I was most tempted with was Steve Stricker.

When Stricker unexpectedly drifted from [15.0] to [18.0], before play started on Thursday, I took the plunge and backed him. It looked a good decision as he stood over a six-footer for birdie on his 8th hole to get to two under par, but it looked a very poor decision after he'd missed it and then three putted the next green from ten feet!

Things went from bad to worse after that for Stricker and it looks like the last few weeks have finally caught up with him.

The event is Tiger Woods' for the taking. Tied for the lead as he is with Mark Wilson, he looks far and away the most likely winner and the [1.66] available at the time of writing isn't a poor price. If the great one doesn't convert again this week questions will undoubtedly be asked.

Zach Johnson, my only other bet, recovered well yesterday after a poor start on Thursday, but he still trails by three. Another two rounds like yesterday though and he won't be far away. Only John Rollins equalled his six under par tally and he still looks a fair price to me at [50.0].

The plan at this stage is to let the event run a while. I fancy Woods will win and if he does so be it, but I'm not going to back him at odds on with two rounds still to play.

I doubt there'll be much to cheer about again this week, Fisher's my only realistic hope but his game looked a bit scruffy yesterday and it's a very congested leaderboard, with some quality players lurking menacingly, so he'll have to find his game from somewhere.

I'll post a review on Monday, when hopefully I will have turned the corner.

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