The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 12 December 2011 /

Alvaro Quiros nails a Dubai double as Luke Donald makes history. Read Steve's thoughts on the week's event here...

Alvaro Quiros closed out the European Tour season in dramatic style as he drained a monster eagle putt on the 72nd hole to win the event by two strokes. Already successful at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic back in February, he was recording a unique Dubai double.

Moments after Quiros' eagle putt had dropped, Paul Lawrie sank a lengthy birdie putt to secure second place on his own, ahead of Luke Donald but I'm pretty sure Donald didn't give a hoot. By then he knew he'd made history by winning the Race to Dubai, as well as the US PGA Tour money list.

It really is an incredible achievement and I wouldn't be at all surprised if nobody else manages it for decades. Well done Luke, and let's get voting for him for the BBC Sports Personality, surely he deserves to have a better chance than Rory McIlroy and Darren Clarke?

My Bets

I went into the final day in a strong position. Both Quiros and Louis Oosthuizen were pre-event picks and I'd already layed the big feller back to get the week's stakes back.

I layed Quiros back again, at just [1.4] odd, when he opened up with three straight birdies and after that it was a largely pressure-free day, although Quiros, baring Oosthuizen, was still by some way my best result.

As the morning wore on, there may not have been much pressure but there was plenty of frustration. I watched with a degree of dismay and disbelief as Paul Lawrie kept making birdie after birdie and when the final pairing turned for home, the veteran Scot had taken the lead.

I was quietly confident that he may struggle once he hit the front but, to his credit, he didn't fall away. A poor drive led to a bogey on the ultra-tough 12th hole though and when Quiros birdied the par-five 14th, the Spaniard was back in the driving seat. After that my man played controlled, impressive golf and although I backed both Donald and Lawrie, just in case, Quiros always looked the most likely winner.

What have we learnt for next year?

Surprisingly, on such a long course and given who took the title this year, Driving Distance isn't the key stat on the Earth Course. Quiros did rank number one for DD but of the first 15 home, only Louis Oosthuizen and Rory McIlroy were also ranked in the top-ten for that stat. Of far more importance was Greens In Regulation. Driving Accuracy isn't too important - Quiros ranked 55th and Lawrie 54th and even the usually arrow straight Donald only ranked 32nd for DA.

Ian Poulter came very close to winning this event last year, a week after winning in Hong Kong and Quiros had started the final round there in the final group, alongside Peter Hanson, last week. It may well be worth again focusing on the in-form players.

Players to follow

A couple of the young guns caught my eye over the weekend. George Coetzee and Nicolas Colsaerts both outscored Quiros over the weekend but both were too far back to ever threaten after poor performances on Thursday and Friday. Now that they've got the hang of the place and with another 12 months experience on Tour under their belts, they could well factor next year.

Player to Swerve

Louis Oosthuizen came into this week's event in fine form and the quickest of looks at his stats for the week show his game was again in good order here. He ranked 6th for DA, 3rd for DD, 8th for GIR, and 10th for Putts per GIR so you have to ask the question, how on earth did he get beat by as many as seven shots? And you have to wonder whether it's his temperament.

He started the final round well within striking distance and around a [7.0] shot but he bogeyed the first and struggled thereafter. I distinctly remember how much of a struggle he made of winning his only title of 2011, the Africa Open, and I'm beginning to think he's one to be wary off.

I know he won the Open Championship by a wide margin in 2010 but he was so far clear on that occasion he didn't get chance to get nervous and challengers were just not forthcoming anyway. In many respects, it was very similar to Rory's win at the US Open this year.

Anyway, the bottom line is this, the first event of 2012 will be the Africa Open and Louis will in all probability, given the fine form he's in, start the event at a single-figure price. I don't think that will represent value and I will probably look elsewhere.

That may well be the end of the Race to Dubai but there's yet more live golf to enjoy next week - both the Australian Masters and the Thailand Golf Championship are live on Sky. Luke Donald will be playing Down Under and there are a host of quality players making the trip to Thailand. I'll preview both events tomorrow.

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