The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 26 November 2008 / 1

Steve Rawlings shares his thoughts on where to find value in the Australian Masters and the LG Skins event while also displaying optimism for England's chances in the Golfing World Cup.

The Race to Dubai goes down under for one week, to the Huntingdale Golf Club, Melbourne, home of the Australian Masters.
It's not the strongest event you'll ever see, with very few tour regulars making the long trip and some high profile natives conspicuous in their absence too.

There's no sign of Adam Scott or Geoff Ogilvy, while defending champion Aaron Baddeley stays in the states where his wife was expecting their first child, and Nick O'Hern is out for the entire Australian season; he's having surgery on a torn ligament in his left thumb, damage inflicted back in July when he slammed his hand in a locker door!

I've gone through the field several times but just can't get past the favourite, Robert Allenby. I'm not a big fan of his and he's been far from trustworthy in the mix on the US Tour for a few years now, furthermore at only [8.8] my initial instinct was to disregard him but on closer inspection I make him value at that price.
He could have won two of his last three events in The States and should have at least got into a play-off at the Turning Stone Resort Championship.

In 2005 he struggled with a hand injury and his form slumped on the US Tour as a result, but he returned home to Australia and became the first player to win the Australian Triple Crown, the Australian Open, PGA and Masters in one season.
A few of the Australians struggle to notch wins in the US but get home and win and I won't be concerned about his in contention record back on home soil.

It will be interesting to see how John Daly reacts to meeting Stuart Appleby this week. Fortunately they're not in the same three-ball because Apples, when asked about big Johns invite, described him as a 'walking train wreck'!
I've also had an interest in one of last week's picks, David Horsey, at [75.0]. He was 5th here last year shooting two rounds of 65 after opening with a 77.
I've also had a tiny bet on Gary Emerson who not that many moons ago was runner up at the British Masters, denied victory in Holland by new starlet Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano and a winner of the Russian Open. I doubt he'll roll back the years but at [1000.0] he's worth a few quid.

Selections:

Robert Allenby @ [8.8]
David Horsey @ [75.0]
Gary Emerson @ [1000.0]

The live event on Sky this week is another alarm clock job, the Omega World Cup. It's a team stroke play event where the first and third days play will be four-balls and the second and final days play will be foursomes.
It's again staged at the Mission Hills Golf Club, China, as it was last year when Scotland redeemed their play-off loss to Germany in Barbados in 2006, by beating the United States in another play-off.
In 2005 Wales won the rain shortened event in Portugal, so the last three winners have all been fairly un-fancied but before that it was never that wise to scan too far down the betting list and I haven't this year.
Having finished tied 4th last year, paired with his good mate Justin Rose, Ian Poulter will know what to expect here. He was the strongest of the pair last year and this year's partner, Ross Fisher, could make the difference. I'm not a fan of Fisher in the mix on his own in regular events but this is a different kettle of fish and I can see his length off the tee being a real big plus on a track with five par 5's.
After Poulter's efforts last year and his remarkable Ryder Cup this, he's already shown his desire to perform in team events. I can easily envisage the pair making a great partnership.

Selection:

England @ [5.8]

Finally, in The States this week it's the LG Skins game and I quite fancy Stephen Ames to make it three in a row, having won the event for the last two years. I certainly wouldn't advise massive stakes but at anything north of [3.5] and he could be value to get the better of Mickelson, Choi and Mediate.

Selection:

Ames @ [3.5]

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1. Dean | 26 November 2008

   Hi Steve, in the World Cup there was only ever one team I wanted to be on that is SPAIN. I think they are a very big price, and expected them to be much shorter. I'm a big fan of both the players, even though Jimenez was a disappointing favourite last week he did finish with a superb 62 to show his game is still in great shape, and Larrazabal played very well all week finishing 4th, with his aggressive style and Miguel's steady eddy type game, they may just be the perfect combination this week. Sweden are no value for me, whilst England could go well for you as Poulter normally raises his game for team events, but you never know what to expect from Fisher?

   In the Australian Masters I've gone for 6 men here. My main bet is Alex Noren. He has let me down about 3 times this year, so hoping for 4th time lucky? But he has plenty of talent and I just think he is in the bracket of "Will win a tournament soon" and I'm hoping it's this week, but I won't give him many more chances, he has to deliver soon!
   Next up is Tim Wilkinson, (Impressed me a few times on the PGA Tour this year) I've also gone for Dave Horsey, (5th here last year and he's an improving player) a young Aussie called Rick Kulacz who is a decent player and could well at nice odds, and Wade Ormsby (Who has just finished 2nd at Qualifying School and it may have given him some confidence)
   Watch out for Danny Lee
   "The world's leading amateur player" he could be a star in a few years, it will be interesting to see how he does, but I doubt he will win this week, so my final pick goes to a more experienced player in Scott Strange. If he plays anything like he did at Celtic Manor, he will go very close and had a decent finish here last year.

   Good Luck This Week

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