The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 13 September 2008 /

The latest on the Punter's progress as he tries to find value in the Mercedes-Benz Championship.

This week's European Tour event, the Mercedes-Benz Championship, has had a slightly different format than the norm and it may have implications. There's been no cut and they played in score order yesterday, which doesn't usually happen until Saturday. The current leaders played both their first two rounds in the worst of the weather in the afternoon and with breezy weather forecast again it won't get any easier for them over the weekend. They may have felt a bit more pressure going out last yesterday too, and both those factors could have an effect on how they play the rest of the event.

It's hard to envisage current leader Robert Karlsson suffering mental or physical fatigue on account of the above factors but there must be question marks about second placed player, Jean-Francois Lucquin, who said he was tired after yesterdays round. You have to wonder if he's been operating in part on adrenalin after last week's win and whether he can keep grinding away. It's very hard to win two weeks running, but having backed him early on yesterday at [6.8] I have to hope he does.

That bet was struck after he birdied the 4th hole when he was looking very strong and there was a distinct possibility he and Karlsson might just get themselves a few clear. But all the leaders slowed up a bit as the wind picked up halfway through their rounds and it doesn't look the value I hoped it would.

When the weather closed in yesterday I turned my attention to those finishing their rounds a few shots off the lead, backing both Edfors at [44.0] and Siem at [42.0]. But after I'd done that the wind dropped again and the leaders were able to finish their rounds without any catastrophes so those picks don't look great value now either.

I also threw a few pounds away on Thursday, backing Nirat at [200.0] and Alvaro Quiros at [230.0] after they'd finished their first rounds. Both players disappointed yesterday and aren't in with any sort of chance now.

Of my original picks, most look out of it but big outsider Marc Warren is still hanging about on the fringes of contention and may even be favoured by being just off the pace at this stage.

The portfolio doesn't look fantastic right now but there's an awful lot of golf left in this tournament and possibly further bets. Leader Karlsson looks a tad short at around [2.70] given how he's failed to convert some good chances this year and I think it's far more open than the betting suggests.

There was some criticism yesterday that they hadn't played preferred lies in the wet conditions and that certainly wouldn't have helped the scoring. I could be wrong but I think they will play preferred lies today and possibly tomorrow which may improve the scoring somewhat and may make it easier for a few of those off the pace to get themselves in the hunt.

There's not much point in looking back at past performances of halfway leaders this week as this course gets tougher year on year and it's certainly not the low scoring birdie haven it once was so the stat will be of no use.

I'm holding on to what I've already got at this stage, Lucquin owes me nothing after last week so although I had plenty of chances to lay the bet back I've decided to stay with him. I don't like any of the others in the top four at this stage and I have a feeling that the winner might not be in the top half dozen yet so I may well be trying to latch on to one or two others as they make their moves this weekend.

As always, I'll review the outcome on Monday.

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