The Masters Betting: Searching for value in the Victory Margin market

A two shot victory then?

Steve Rawlings has pored over the last 30 years results at Augusta National in an attempt to root out the value. Which scenario does he think is the best play?

“Every year, 1 Stroke and Playoff tend to via for favouritism in this market but the stats suggest that’s wrong. Given there have been seven playoffs, six one stroke wins and nine two shot victories, 2 Strokes should be the jolly.”

Augusta National has witnessed all sorts of dramas over the years and there have been some remarkable achievements by plenty of players but Tiger Woods' victory in 1997 eclipses them all. After playing the first nine holes in 40 strokes he was languishing miles down the leaderboard on +4 but after that there was simply no stopping him and he went on to win by a massive 12 strokes. That's by far the widest winning margin at the US Masters over the last 30 years and nobody else has come anywhere close to winning so easily.

The second largest victory margin came in very strange circumstances the year before, when Greg Norman collapsed and Nick Faldo sauntered by, turning a six shot deficit into a five shot victory on day four.

Only twice has anyone won by four. Back in 1983 the legendry Seve did it and ten years later Bernhard Langer won the second of his green jackets by the same margin. And the four three shot margin wins over the last thirty years have all occurred this century.

With so few wide margin wins, there's definitely mileage in laying 5 Strokes or More, 4 Strokes and even 3 Strokes, but I prefer a small win bet on 2 Strokes - a scenario we've witnessed three times in the last seven years.

Every year, 1 Stroke and Playoff tend to via for favouritism in this market but the stats suggest that's wrong. Given there have been seven playoffs, six one stroke wins and nine two shot victories, 2 Strokes should be the jolly and given it usually trades at around a point bigger that the other two scenarios, that's the play at around 5.04/1.

Recommended Bet
Back 2 Strokes at 4.57/2 or bigger

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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