Steve takes a look at the hole in one market, where a tried and tested formula could pay dividends again in 2013
"If there’s going to be one again this time around, it’s highly likely to be at the 16th and it’s also highly likely to be on Sunday. And if recent history is to be believed, we may even get two!"
This will be the 77th US Masters and during the first 76 events there have only been 23 aces. At first glance, their scarcity would suggest that the only feasible option is to lay Yes or back No in the Hole-in-one Market but that's definitely not the case...
In the tournament's entire history, the tough 4th hole has provided just one hole-in-one. Four have been registered at the 6th and there have been just three at the 12th. If there's going to be one again this time around, it's highly likely to be at the 16th and it's also highly likely to be on Sunday. And if recent history is to be believed, we may even get two!
Much excitement has been caused over recent years by the pin-placement on the 16th on Sunday and we've seen a rash of hole-in-ones there, nine in the last nine years in fact!
In 2004 Padraig Harrington and Kirk Triplett, playing in consecutive groups, both aced it within ten minutes of each other. Nathan Green and Ryan Moore both found the cup in one three years ago and last year it was the turn of both Bo Van Pelt and Adam Scott.
As detailed here, there have been very slight alterations to the 16th green ahead of this year's renewal but it shouldn't make any difference and given the extra spice putting the flag on the flat spot below the slope provides, I see no reason whatsoever for the organisers to change tact this Sunday.
It's all about getting Yes onside on day four - how it's done is all down to personal choice. If you wanted to be clever, you could lay Yes before the tournament begins and then back it back after round three (provided there hasn't already been one of course!) or you could take less of a risk and just back Yes before Sunday and forget about laying it first. I don't see any value in backing Yes before Sunday though, as the chances of there being one before then are very slim indeed.
The price should drift as the event progresses and yet, if there is to be one, the odds are stacked in favour of it happening on Sunday.
Back Yes @ 2.01/1 or better
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