Open de France: Experienced Aussie has all the tools for a tough test

Steven Rawlings
30 June 2015

Will Richard Green have conditions to suit this week in France?

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With temperatures soaring, Le Golf National is expected to run hard and fast and Steve fancies experience could be the key to success. Read his comprehensive preview here...

"With the weather forecast suggesting really hot temperatures, the course and greens will run very fast this week, which should provide an extremely demanding test."

Tournament History

The European Tour stops off in France this week for the oldest national open in Continental Europe. This will be the 108th staging of the Open de France, an event that's been a mainstay on the European Tour since its inception in 1972. Falling where it does on the schedule, just a few weeks before the Open Championship, it always attracts a high-quality field and it hasn't disappointed this year.

Venue

Le Golf National, Paris

Course Details

Par 71, 7,331 yards
Stroke index in 2014 - 73.55

Le Golf National only opened in 1990 but it's already establishing itself as a truly great test, with the average scores creeping up year on year as the course matures and plays tougher. And with the weather forecast suggesting really hot temperatures, the course and greens will run very fast this week, which should provide an extremely demanding test.

It's a fairly exposed track with undulating fairways of average width. The greens are bentgrass, of an average size, and will run at 12.5 on the stimpmeter and water is in play on holes 1, 2, 13, 15, 16 and 18.

It's a stadium style course designed by Hubert Chesneau and Robert Van Hagge and it's going to make for a tremendous Ryder Cup venue in 2018.

Useful Sites
Event Site
Course Site
Tee Times
Weather Forecast
Alternative Weather Forecast

TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting on Thursday

Last Five Winners
2014 - Graeme McDowell -5
2013 - Graeme McDowell -9
2012 - Marcel Siem - 8
2011 - Thomas Levet -7
2010 - Miguel Angel Jimenez -11 (playoff)

What Will it Take to Win The Open de France?

Graeme McDowell ranked 59th for Driving Distance when he won last year and 41st 12 months earlier. Marcel Siem ranked 5th for DD in 2012 but he's the only winner in the last ten years to rank any better than tied 19th and the average ranking over the last ten years is 38.1. Bombing it off the tee is not essential.

The average Driving Accuracy ranking for the last ten winners is 19.8 so accuracy is more important than power off the tee but it's what you do after your drive that really counts here.

G-Mac only ranked 22nd for Greens In Regulation last year (great putting won him the event) and that was unusual as six of the last ten winners have ranked inside the top-three for GIR. The average ranking for the last ten winners is 9.3.

Although putting was the key to G-Mac's win 12 months ago, the three winners between 2011 and 2013 had an average Putting Average ranking of just 25.6. Putting is always extremely important but in addition to GIR, the other stat to concentrate on is Scrambling.

Last year's runner-up, Thongchai Jaidee, was ranked second for Scrambling, with Mathew Baldwin, who finished 5th, ranking first. In 2013, six of the first seven home ranked inside the top-eight for Scrambling and in 2012, four of the first six home ranked in the top-six. In fact, eight of the last ten players to top the scrambling stats for the week have been placed - seven in the top-three.

The winner this week will hit lots of greens and scramble brilliantly when they don't.

Is There an Angle In?

The Twenty Ten Course, home of the Wales Open and the 2010 Ryder Cup, correlates really well with Paris National. A number of players have played well at both venues and last year's one and two, G-Mac and Jaidee have both won in Wales.

A more recent event that looks worthy of close inspection is May's Open de España, staged at the Real Club de Golf El Prat. Conditions were firm and fast that week too and a number of players to have previously played well here were right in the thick of it. James Morrison won in Spain with Miguel Angel Jimenez, David Howell and Francesco Molinari tied for second and all four have form at Le Golf National.

Morrison led this event with a round to go in 2011, as did Howell, in 2012. Molinari has twice finished runner-up here and Jimenez won the event in 2010.

Looking at the weather forecasts, it's just possible that a late/early draw will be best this week but the usual caveat applies. Forecasts can change rapidly and by the time the tournament kicks off, that could have all changed.

Is There an Identikit Winner?

Although G-Mac was well-fancied both last year and in 2013, outsiders have a decent record and six of the last ten winners have gone off at a triple-figure price so don't be frightened to back an outsider or two.

The track is getting tougher as the years tick by and as already highlighted, I fancy it will play really tough this year so it may well be worth taking a good look at the veterans in the field. The old heads know how to limit their mistakes and sail a steady course. Most of the winners here have had plenty of years on Tour under their belts and the younger winners (Martin Kaymer and Pablo Larrazabal) have been top-drawer.

There doesn't appear to be any rhyme or reason to it but up until recently, low-ranking Englishman had a great record in the event. Mark Roe and Paul Broadhurst both won here in the 90s and between 2002 and 2007 there were victories for Malcolm MacKenzie, Philip Golding, John Bickerton and Graeme Storm.

In-Play Tactics

It's perfectly possible to get away with a slow start at Le Golf National and it's not an easy place to make the running. Three of the last five winners have trailed by fully eight strokes at halfway and only one third round leader, G-Mac in 2013, has gone on to win in the last seven years.

The finish to the course is brutal and the 17th and 18th have ranked as the two hardest holes on the course in each of the last two years so if you're pick is in front through 70 holes, taking a bit of profit might be prudent.

Market Leaders

With an abundance of course form already in the bank, in-form Italian, Francesco Molinari, is the very obvious favourite and having just qualified for the Open Championship, courtesy of yesterday's World Ranking reshuffle, he'll be relaxed and raring to go. It's easy to see him contending this week but he's devilishly hard to get across the line and I'm more than happy to pass him over before the off, especially as recent tweets from the Italian suggest he's struggling to get to Paris...

Lee Westwood, who was beaten by Martin Kaymer in a playoff here in 2009, and Jamie Donaldson, who has finished inside the top-six in each of the last two renewals, are the only other players trading at less than 30.029/1 but they make little appeal either. Like Molinari, they're not as prolific as they perhaps should be and if I was to play one or two at the head of the market, previous winners, Kaymer and G-Mac and the in-form Thai, Thongchai Jaidee, look better options.

Selections

Up until the draw was made, I'd only backed one player - my each-way selection, Richard Green. The Aussie left-hander has a great record at Le Golf National and he has the experience to handle what should be testing conditions. I'm concerned that Green is currently attempting to qualify for the Open Championship which isn't an ideal prep for the tournament but at a big price, I thought he was still worth chancing. He's been issued with a morning tee-time, which may be slightly against him if the forecast is correct but I like his chances this week and he looks a good bet to finish inside the top-ten at the 9/1 offered up by the Betfair Sportsbook.

This event looks like one of the most competitive we've seen in ages but now that I've seen the draw, I've played four more players for very small stakes - Jaidee, who I backed last year when he finished second, Gregory Bourdy, a winner in Wales that played well in Spain, recent Lyoness winner, Chris Wood and Morrison, who is clearly in-form but has to get over Sunday's horrid collapse in Germany.

Selections:
Thongchai Jaidee @ 34.033/1
Chris Wood @ 48.047/1
Gregory Bourdy @ 55.054/1
James Morrison @ 75.074/1
Richard Green @ 150.0149/1

If you're going to have a bet in the event, you may want to get on with it. Molinari may not be the only one struggling to get to Paris and I suspect a number of players will pull out due to the striking French workers blocking the Channel Tunnel.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter