Steve takes his customary look back at all last week's market moves on the European and PGA Tour where there were wins for South Africa's Dylan Frittelli and Florida's Daniel Berger...
"The tournament favourite, Bernd Wiesberger, started like a man possessed and he was matched at just 2.526/4 after he’d played the first 11 holes in five-under-par on Thursday. I know it’s easy in hindsight but on such a tricky course, he was highly unlikely to run away with the tournament (there’s always a tight finish here) and not getting involved there and then was a big mistake."
At one stage yesterday afternoon, we looked set for a five-man playoff at the Lyoness Open but Richard McEvoy, who was matched at a low of 2.447/5, bogeyed the last two holes to drop out of the lead and the eventual winner, Dylan Frittelli, made this brave par save on 17 before paring the last to win.
Clutch.? The European Tour (@EuropeanTour) June 11, 2017
One clear, one hole to play for Frittelli. pic.twitter.com/r65fOYcDSS
Paul Krishnamurty's 40/1 each-way fancy, Frittelli, who was matched at 50.049/1 on the Exchange before the off, had traded at a low of 1.528/15 when he looked certain to birdie the par four 10th hole to take control but he missed the tiny birdie putt and drifted right out to 7.613/2 as others caught and passed him on the back-nine.
Fellow South African, Jbe Kruger, holed out from the fairway for eagle on the 12th hole and after back-to-back birdies on the par five 15th and 16th, he briefly touched odds-on, hitting a low of 1.875/6, but a bogey at the final hole saw him slip back to -11 where he finished alongside Joe Dyer's each-way pick, Mikko Korhonen, and the final round charger, David Horsey, who hit a low of 3.9, having been matched at 70.069/1 after round three.
Over at the St. Jude Classic, we looked set for an even more dramatic finale as nine players tied for the lead midway through the final round but the defending champ, Daniel Berger, took the tournament by the scruff with birdies at 13 and 15 before paring his way in for a one-stroke victory over halfway leader, Charl Schwartzel, and Korea's Whee Kim.
Berger was a 34.033/1 chance before the off but he was matched at a high of 190.0189/1 in-running after a slow start to thee event and having been trading at around 20.019/1 with a round to go, his price spiked at 50.049/1 when he made a mess of the first hole before chipping in for par from 25 feet away.
A combination of a cautious approach to two tricky tournaments and a preoccupation with my US Open prep meant I didn't really get into this week's tournaments and it finished up a quieter week than anticipated.
As detailed in the In-Play Blog, my plan had been to lay anyone that went odds-on in Austria and I half stuck to the plan. I layed the eventual winner at 1.654/6 early on-on the back-nine but rather than lay anyone else (which was the original plan given three players had traded at odds-on in each of the last three renewals) I finished up backing him back at around 4.57/2 and trading him back and fore instead.
With hindsight, I may have had a better tournament had I layed McEvoy and Kruger but it felt like the easiest way to play it. I finished up making a small profit in the event but that was all lost in Memphis, where I barely got involved.
With hindsight, I should have been aggressively taking on the likes of Stewart Cink and Rafa Cabrera-Bello at short odds and I should have taken some profit from my Ben Crane wager but on the other hand, I quite liked the chances of Kevin Chappell with a round to but I didn't play him at all, so I've no real complaints. The tournament didn't pan out in a clear fashion and I just didn't feel as though I got to grips with it.
Having a young player defend from slightly off the pace with a round to go wasn't how I would have envisaged the event to finish and at just 20.019/1 with a round to go, I've no regrets about leaving out the winner from tied ninth and three off the pace. Not getting involved in that event wasn't necessarily a bad thing but looking back, I should have fared much better in Austria...
What Have I Learned This Week?
In the first seven editions of the Lyoness Open at the Diamond Country Club, only one third round leader had gone on to win and as already stated, three players had been matched at odds-on in each of the last three renewals. I had it in my mind that I'd just wait until Sunday and get trading aggressively then but with hindsight, I should have been on the ball from the get-go and being too rigid with my planning has cost me.
The tournament favourite, Bernd Wiesberger, started like a man possessed and he was matched at just 2.526/4 after he'd played the first 11 holes in five-under-par on Thursday. I know it's easy in hindsight but on such a tricky course, he was highly unlikely to run away with the tournament (there's always a tight finish here) and not getting involved there and then was a big mistake.
Had I changed my plans and started building a lay book on day one, I'd have been in a cracking position by the time the likes of Frittelli, McEvoy, Horsey and Kruger threatened to take the title.
The third round leader, Felipe Aguilar, went into the final round trading at 3.711/4 with a two-stroke lead but he was matched at a low of 2.021/1 for a few pounds and for plenty at 2.226/5 as early as Saturday.
I appreciate that it's not possible to get them all matched at the lowest prices they trade at but having Wiesberger and Aguilar in the book at short odds before the fourth round even began would have been lovely and my own inflexibly, waiting for Sunday before getting involved, was just plain daft.
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