The Punter's De-Brief: Longshot Lipsky prevails at Leopard Creek

Steven Rawlings
17 December 2018

Alfred Dunhill Championship winner - David Lipsky

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Our man looks back on the last two tournaments of the year, as outsiders, Poom Saksansin and David Lipsky, sign-off 2018 with impressive victories. Read our man's final review of the year here...

"The first and second ranked one and two for Par 4 Scoring for the week and putting was most definitely the key to Lipsky’s success. He had 12 one-putts on Sunday alone, ranked first for both Putts Per Round and for Putts Per GIR and he ranked fourth for Putting Average. Lombard, who finished tied for third, ranked first."

Having missed his last two cuts, in Mauritius and at the South African Open, and without a top-20 finish since July, 30-year-old American, David Lipsky, was matched at a high of 340.0339/1 before the off at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and he was generally an unfancied 270.0269/1 shot.

Lipsky began the event with a two-under-par 70 to trail first round leader, Oliver Bekker, by four before a bogey-free six-under-par 66 on Friday saw him take up the running at halfway. He trailed Scott Jamieson by a stroke with a round to go but he was in front after the third hole and after a brilliant four-under-par 31 on the front-nine, which was the best front-nine of the day by anyone in the field, he led by five as he headed for home.

It looked like we might be in for a bit of a dull finish but Zander Lombard put in quite a charge and after he'd eagled 13 and birdied 14, he got to within one of Lipsky's lead. Lombard was matched at just 2.6813/8 but Lipsky responded brilliantly to the challenge, birdying 14 to double his lead before the South African imploded...

Lombard's challenge began to falter with a par at the par five 15th, after he'd found the water with his approach, and it ended in spectacular style with a disastrous triple-bogey at the tricky par three 16th after he again found water. Firstly, off the tee and from the drop zone!

Lipsky then led by four with three to play but a double-bogey at the 16th, after he found a plugged lie in a greenside bunker off the tee, and a birdie at the last for David Drysdale, put the pressure firmly back on when his lead was again reduced to just one. Drysdale was matched at a low of 4.03/1 but Lipsky got the job done nicely in the end.

Given his form coming in to the event, and how long it had been since his first European Tour win, at the European Masters in 2014, Lipsky could have been forgiven for not getting home but after very nearly missing his par save on 17, he nailed his drive on the par five 18th before finding the green with his second, giving him three putts for the win. He only needed two.

Lipsky's victory at the European Masters also followed a period of poor form and a missed cut so he's clearly someone that can find form out of the blue.

It was similar tale on the Asian Tour where the 2016 Indonesian Masters winner, Poom Saksansin, was matched at a high of 110.0109/1 before the off, despite the fact he'd won the event two years previous. Plying his trade in Japan, Saksansin had form figures there reading an uninspiring 5-MC-31-17-22-38-MC-40 but he put that all behind him at a venue he clearly loves and he won comfortably by three over Jazz Janewattananond, with Panuphol Pittayarat finishing third to make it a one-two-three for Thailand.

The two marquee names in attendance, defending champ, Justin Rose, and Henrik Stenson, both traded at odds-on but both fell woefully short. Rose was actually matched at a low of 1.75/7 as early as Thursday after he'd opened up the event nicely, racing to six-under-par through 12 holes, but that was as good as it got. He ended the tournament on six-under in a tie for 16th and beaten by a whopping 14 strokes. An extremely unlikely result that meant that Brooks Koepka will end the year as the number one ranked player in the world.

My Bets

Despite the great start, my relationship with Rose continued. I seem to be able to stop him in his tracks whenever I back him and this week was no different. I was more than a little confident with my sole selection when I first checked the scores on Thursday morning but the writing was on the wall when he failed to kick on - on Friday and the result in South Africa was disappointing too.

A wave of money came for my only pick before the off at the Alfred Dunhill Championship, Brandon Stone, and he was well-supported throughout the week. Having been matched at a high of 34.033/1, he was as short as 14/1 in a place on the High Street before the off and he looked like the man to beat with a round to go.

As detailed in the In-Play Blog, I didn't fancy the 54-hole leader, Jamieson, and when Stone opened up with a pair of birdies, I was even more confident of signing off the year nicely. Stone was matched at a low of just 3.02/1 after the fast start but he failed miserably in the end after making a triple-bogey seven at the ninth. He eventually shot a four-over-par 76 to finish tied 15th!

What Have We Learned This Week?

The previous six renewals of the Alfred Dunhill Championship had gone the way of a South African so it was very noticeable that Lombard was the only South African in the first six places this time around and with the benefit of hindsight, that made a bit of sense.

The course hasn't changed a lot visually but the change from kikuyu to Bermuda grass sped the whole track up (especially the greens) and the transformation brought the scoring down nicely. This is a much tougher test now and it's a very different test so we perhaps shouldn't be too surprised that course specialist, Charl Schwartzel didn't even make the weekend or that the winner was playing here for the first time. Having no preconceptions appeared to be a plus for Lipsky.

I wouldn't be surprised if Schwartzel and co adapt very quickly to the changes but it's something to bear in mind the next time one of the tours visits a venue that's undergone an extensive overhaul.

The first and second ranked one and two for Par 4 Scoring for the week and putting was most definitely the key to Lipsky's success. He had 12 one-putts on Sunday alone, ranked first for both Putts Per Round and for Putts Per GIR and he ranked fourth for Putting Average. Lombard, who finished tied for third, ranked first.

Apart from being a good putter on Bermuda, there wasn't anything in Lipsky's form to suggest he'd take to Leopard Creek but there's a very good chance he was inspired by the victory in Mauritius two weeks ago by his good friend and fellow LA based Korean-American, Kurt Kitayama. Seeing one of your friends or countrymen win is inspiring. Renowned betting guru, Keith Elliott, used to call it Inspiration by Comparison and it's certainly something to consider.

That's it now for tournament golf in 2018 but I'll be back periodically over the festive period with an ante-post look at the four majors, starting with the US Masters.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter