Soft ground may upset Dandy Man
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Editor /
30 May 2007 /
5f 6yd Group 2 Betfair Temple Stakes. Sandown, Thursday, 20.20
The soft ground must be a concern for backers of Dandy Man, the likely favourite for this long-established Group 2 sprint (20.20) at Sandown.
Admittedly, he looked at least as good as ever when routing a Listed field at Naas on his recent return, but his best form last season (winning the Palace House Stakes and being beaten a length in the Kings Stand) came on fast ground while his only disappointing effort was logged in the Nunthorpe Stakes mud.
It is not as if there are not serious rivals wherever you look to encourage layers of Dandy Man. Two of them, in particular, look overpriced because they are having their first runs of the season.
Three-year-olds taking on their elders at this time of the season don't have a great record, but last year's Flying Childers winner has all the attributes to make his mark in the big sprints this season. He regularly recorded fast times in 2006, showed great battling qualities and his Middle Park conqueror Dutch Art has hardly let the form down this spring.
Airwave was able to win this race in 2003 for the three-year-old division and Wi Dud looks a big enough price to tempt place punters or back-to-lay strategists, even though his regular jockey Neil Callan is suspended. Wi Dud's trainer Kevin Ryan has a good line to sprint form through Amadeus Wolf.
The Trader was totally overlooked in the market for this race last year, when only the brilliant Reverence beat him but loves soft ground and looks a huge price again.
Moss Vale is another that attracts, especially with his good draw. He took two runs to get spot on last season and when second to Benbaun the other day in Ireland, looked almost back to his best. He comfortably beat Red Clubs when third in the Prix de l'Abbaye last season and the drop back to five furlongs is likely to inconvenience him less than the Barry Hills-trained sprinter.
Sierra Vista could hardly be in better form but she never seems quite so effective away from her beloved Haydock where she notched her two recent wins.
Angus Newz's busy 14-race campaign last season yielded four wins and she has already shown an appetite for hard work this year, winning on her fifth start with a game pillar-to-post success at Ripon but needs to improve again.
Firenze's sister Frizzante got better with age, winning the July Cup in her final season and the James Fanshawe-trained sprinter is going the same way.
She was touched off in both the Wokingham and Stewards' Cup last year before ending the year with a Listed success at Newmarket. She made a more than competent winning reappearance at Nottingham and is another serious threat to Dandy Man.
Excusez Moi's two from 27 win record doesn't bode well and, although he is in good form, the switch from 7f to 5f can help.
Meehan's the man in National
5f 6yd Listed Betfair Mobile National Stakes. Sandown, Thursday, 19.50
Since 2000, Brian Meehan has saddled three seconds, a third, fourth and fifth in the National Stakes (19.50) at Sandown, so you can't say he is not due a win in the race.
He also has a decent ally this time in Frankie Dettori, who has won the juvenile sprint on good horses like Excellent Art and Bint Allayl, so Meehan's Major Eazy is an obvious candidate for any short list.
He had clearly been showing plenty on the gallops and was made favourite for his Newmarket debut, but couldn't cope with Spirit of Sharjah and Dark Angel, who have franked the form with subsequent wins.
On his latest effort, Major Eazy spent more than a furlong waiting for a gap to appear on the stand rail at Ascot in the Garter Stakes, by which time the race was as good as over. Not touched with the whip and beaten less than two lengths, he looked a slightly unlucky loser. One negative, though, is that he is unproven on soft ground and, with this in mind, layers may be less inclined to forgive his Ascot misfortune.
Richard Hannon has a good record in this event and at least his filly Sweepstake won on good to soft ground at Salisbury. It is hard to be conclusive about her win as she was one of just two horses in a big field who raced on the far side, but the positives are that Hannon's two-year-olds inevitably come on for the run. She showed a nice professional attitude to haul back the stands-side leaders from halfway and has the best draw in eight.
Mick Channon and Clive Brittain are other trainers who know what it takes to win the National Stakes and they are represented by Carleton and Al Muheer respectively.
Carleton beat a previous winner and showed an appreciation for rain-softened ground to win at Windsor; Al Muheer did nothing wrong in third at Nottingham but the subsequent defeat of the runner-up suggests the form is no great shakes.
Market confidence behind New Jersey was not justified in his first two races but the form of those defeats behind Cristal Clear and Group Therapy has worked out well. He then raised his game a notch when racing on ground with a bit of cut in it at York. Against five previous winners, he did well to score having been squeezed out of a good position with two furlongs to run and is a robust contender both pre-race and in-play.
Baytown Blaze got closer to Spirit of Sharjah in a Listed event at Goodwood than did Major Eazy at Newmarket, but she looks all speed and may not get home up the hill in these conditions.
Kerrin McEvoy was understandably keen to renew his acquaintance with Lady Avenger, who travelled well on her debut at Windsor and was then driven clear for an emphatic three-length success.
Papal smoke signals may be right
1m 2f 7yd Group 2 Betfair Brigadier Stakes. Sandown, Thursday, 19.15
Sir Michael Stoute's Group horses are flying at the moment with victories for Allegretto and Notnowcato, and a near-miss for Heaven Sent, in the last few days so Papal Bull will have plenty of supporters in the 1m 2f contest at 19.15.
This is not the strongest Group 2 affair and his defeat of Red Rocks (King Edward VII Stakes) and Dragon Dancer (Chester Vase) last season read very well. However, he is not entirely straight forward and, rare for a Stoute horse, runs in a sheepskin noseband. Also, he has to give weight all around, found only a limited response under pressure when favourite for the Jockey Club Stakes on his return and the drop back to 1m2f is not sure to suit. On balance, a lay rather than a bet.
It is perhaps no surprise that Mashaahed is the early favourite on the back of a reappearance effort when he was second to Red Rocks, with subsequent Group 1 winner Notnowcato in fourth. For all his progressive form last autumn and his guaranteed appreciation of soft ground, he doesn't exude the swagger of a winner and layers will be banking on his lack of finishing speed again.
Tam Lin, formerly in the Stoute camp but now with Godolphin, has won four from six, which is all the more remarkable as he boasts a number of traits that you don't like to see in a successful racehorse - he swishes his tail, carries his head high and repeatedly hangs.
Attitude is something you can't fault in either Mighty or Take A Bow and both look tempting given the quirks of the principals in the market.
Stoute didn't get much of a tune out of Mighty as a two-year-old, so all credit to Jane Chapple-Hyam, who picked the horse up for only 8,500 guineas and has taken him to a rating of 112 after an excellent winter on the sand.
That good form has continued in Group races on turf this spring and, even though he drops back to 1m2f, Mighty has a lot going for him. He is sure to be ridden close to the pace and, on this front runners' track, he will be even harder to pass.
Take A Bow is on a losing run of 11, nonetheless he is a thoroughly reliable individual who finished a place behind Pinpoint, who was third, in the Cambridgeshire conceding 2lb. At the current odds, he represents better value than the Swinburn horse, who is also inclined to drift both right and left under pressure.
It remains to be seen what Emma Lavelle can do with 40,000 guineas Aidan O'Brien cast-off Fire and Rain, who beat one home in the St Leger.
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