Find Me a 100 Winner: Try this trio of iron specialists at The Memorial

Golfer Corey Connors
Corey Connors is one of the best approach players on the tour

Paul Krishnamurty runs through his best three picks at odds of 99/1 or better at Muirfield Village, where he also mentions an alternative trio...

"Harris English's form has transformed over the last year and the stats back it up - fifth among these for greens in regulation, 13th for scrambling. 12 starts this term have yielded eight top-20 finishes."

Still no sign of an outsider winner after five weeks of PGA Tour action since lockdown. Given the history of the Memorial Tournament and what happened at this track last week, finding one doesn't look like getting any easier.

In fairness, this event has produced some very unlikely, huge-priced winners - almost impossible to find in the cases of David Lingmerth and William McGirt. And the quality within our 99/1 plus target range gets better by the week - Spieth, Casey, Leishman, for example.

Accurate irons are key at Muirfield Village

Muirfield Village is a second shot course with a premium on precise approaches to small, very fast greens. As Steve Rawlings' explains in his comprehensive preview, greens in regulation and scrambling are usually reliable statistical indicators. Add to that two strokes gained options - tee-to-green and approach.

Whilst those statistical disciplines are invariably dominated by elite types, in this competitive environment it is possible to find a few at very big odds - ideal for each-way or win and place betting.

Back Harris English 1u @ 250.0249/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 15.014/1

Back Harris English for a Top 10 Finish 1u @ 14.013/1

Harris English's form has transformed over the last year and the stats back it up - fifth among these for greens in regulation, 13th for scrambling. 12 starts this term have yielded eight top-20 finishes including a quintet of top-tens.

Still only 30 years old, he's a class act and well capable of landing a third PGA Tour title, seven years after the last if that resurgent form is any sort of guide. This will be only his third visit to the course and first since 2015, when finishing a respectable 18th.

Connors ticks the right long-game boxes

Back Corey Connors 1u @ 250.0249/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 15.014/1

Back Corey Connors for a Top 10 Finish 1u @ 12.011/1

Corey Connors' excellence regarding those approach stats. He leads the gir numbers among this field over the past 12 months and ranks in the top-20 for both strokes gained: tee to green and strokes gained: approach in both the 2019/20 and 2018/19 seasons.

The Canadian fared well enough by making the cut on both previous visits. This is a course that takes some knowing so improvement is a realistic hope, so long as he hits another high percentage of greens, thus easing the pressure on a relatively weak short game.

Back Talor Gooch 0.5u @ 750.0749/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 25.024/1

Back Talor Gooch for a Top 20 Finish 1u @ 9.08/1

Talor Gooch has already delivered a profit for the column when chanced at enormous odds - bagging a share of tenth at Riviera. Considering he made the top-20 last week on only his second sighting of Muirfield Village, odds of 750.0749/1 make plenty of appeal.

Follow Gooch on second shot courses

This 28 year-old seems to produce his best on courses with a premium on the approach shot - PGA West, Torrey Pines, Riviera. He was 13th at Bay Hill (another Nicklaus course and a good guide) despite shooting 80 in round two.

The stats bear that out. Last season he ranked top-15 for both greens in regulation and strokes gained: approach on the whole tour. Last week on this course, Gooch ranked top-ten for both strokes gained: tee to green and approach.

Varner also of interest on suitable course

As mentioned above, there are all sorts of likeable types at triple-figure odds, of whom three more warrant a specific mention. Doc Redman 280.0279/1 has played really well from tee to green on his last three starts.

First reserve is Harold Varner at 420.0419/1. He has been hitting the ball well for month (12th for gir among these over the past year) and is a better player than when making the top-20 here in 2017. Finally, 460.0459/1 about Joel Dahmen is insane, based on his consistent and progressive form. Backing him, however, would involve putting last week's 79/81 missed cut to one side.


Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty

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