When a great player fades money can be made

Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 11 September 2007 / 2

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Opposing Singh and Goosen is a rewarding tactic at the moment says Paul Krishnamurty

Remember the big five? It doesn't seem so long ago that all the talk was of a closely matched golfing elite, ready to carve up the Majors between them and usher in a golden era.

Well, that quickly became the big one as Tiger re-established total dominance. Of the remaining four, Phil Mickelson and Ernie Els still legitimately hold winning hopes every time they tee it up, even if the world no.2 slot is their best realistic hope. As each bad week goes by though, it seems less likely we'll ever see Vijay Singh or Retief Goosen winning Majors again. From a betting perspective, this means there could well be rich pickings opposing them whilst their lofty reputations remain.

I'm naturally wary of writing off Singh, who we should remember has won twice in 2007 and remains a notorious workaholic and perfectionist. Even at the age of 44, nobody would doubt his hunger to remain a contender. Since that last win in March though, he's rarely showed his best and just recently this usually ultra-consistent player has endured an awful run. His last five events have produced a best finish of 56th, Vijay's worst run since 1994.

At six years younger, Goosen has more time on his hands to get his game back, but in his case the recent decline has been sharper and more prolonged. Incredibly, the Goose has not made a single top 20 since April and missed the cut for the final two play-offs having finished just 89th on the Fedex Cup list. Instead of mixing it with the big guns in pursuit of $10M, the South African heads for Germany and the lower level European Tour this week for the Mercedes-Benz Championship. No matter what the opposition though, neither will be winning without significant improvement on that recent form.

It's quite natural that the superstars retain their status and popularity with punters on the way down. The saying that form is temporary, class permanent is all too true, but here it's looking considerably worse than just a 'bad run' and is all too reminiscent of other declining stars. For example, I vividly remember regularly (and successfully) opposing Nick Faldo and Greg Norman in the late 1990s in match bets against in-form players.

Sunday's two-balls were a classic case in point. Without trying to sound clever after the event, Boo Weekley was huge value at 2.5 to outscore Singh on the final day, considering he'd finished ahead in each of the previous four tournaments. Vijay will probably be afforded similar respect in two-balls this week at the Tour Championship, especially because of his superb record at East Lake. He won the title here in 2002 and has never finished worse than 9th in six events at the venue.

Goosen is also prominent in the betting for the Mercedes Benz Championship, trading around 20 and competing for favouritism with in-form and top-class Europeans Westwood and Poulter. This reflects the fact he is defending champion, as well as the less competitive field than usually faced in the States. Looking down the list though, a number of players start at bigger odds despite achieving significantly more over the summer - Angel Cabrera, Niclas Fasth and Andres Romero, for example.

There's only limited gains from laying either in the win market, so a better strategy may be to look to a variety of speciality bets. Singh is pitched against Open champion Padraig Harrington in Betfair's tournament matchbets.

Given that Harrington has also shown some form at East Lake in the past and comes here fresh after a week off, I'd make the Irishman a strong favourite and confident bet at 1.85.

Beyond keeping an eye out for good value in two-balls, the best way of opposing Goosen could be to lay him in the top five and top 10 markets. Particularly in the latter, 3.0 looks a very short price to achieve a finishing position he hasn't come close to managing in over four months.

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BigBoy | 11 September 2007

I think - at 44 - Vijay is over the hill. He's still capable of pulling a big round out the hat but sustaining it at the Majors over four rounds looks unlikely. He reminds me a bit of the post-major-winning Nick Faldo - still getting from tee to green in great shape but simply can't hole out from 8-10ft when it really matters. Was it Tony Jacklin who said the putting goes first? That's Vijay.

Goosen? I think he's still young enough to be in with a shout of getting his game back together.
Mystical Mike Norman | 12 September 2007

Nice article. I couldn't agree more regarding Goosen, he has been very disappointing of late.

I mainly concentrate on the European Tour and I fancy Niklas Fasth to go well this week, along with England's Nick Dougherty. Both have performed well at Golf Club Gut Larchenhof in the past and both have had solid seasons. Fasth in particular seems to have the mental strength to still be at his best as the season draws to an end.

I would readily oppose the likes of Goosen, Westwood and Cabrera this week, while a lively outside might be Ricardo Gonzalez.