Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 08 August 2009 /

Firestone is showing its teeth so Paul Krishnamurty is looking for outsiders with previous course form to negotiate a path to big winnings.

Though day two at Firestone saw little in the way of dramatic change on the leaderboard, the tournament appears perfectly poised for an exciting weekend - an ideal scenario for trading purposes. There are ten major champions sitting within five shots of the lead, plus a host of others who would be perfectly capable of becoming one, and two popular market leaders ensuring everyone else's odds are at least a decent double figured price.

Padraig Harrington still leads the way after a one-under 69, fuelling confidence about a successful defence of his PGA title next week. Tiger Woods remains favourite, though only just, at [4.5] compared to Harrington's [4.9], despite slipping a further shot behind the Irishman. While Tiger backers won't be too concerned just yet about that five shot deficit, they must be alarmed about another very erratic performance.

This is anything but a two-horse race though. Predictably, Firestone is getting tougher as the week progresses, with the greens firming up and becoming very hard to hold. Unless some rain arrives to soften them up, we can expect to see US Open style 'survival golf', and far fewer than the current total of 24 players finishing under par.

When conditions are like this, leaderboards tend to change very quickly. If someone currently way back in the field were to shoot a 66 tomorrow, they could suddenly find themselves close to the lead. Equally its always easy for one of the leaders to drop several shots in the space of a few holes around this course.

So rather as I suggested yesterday, the best trading sense lies in finding some decent priced alternatives to the big two, Woods and Harrington. The two players advised yesterday, Hunter Mahan and Zach Johnson, both remain prominent in a tie for seventh, four off the lead. I retain high hopes for both, who should thrive as conditions get harder. Johnson's pedigree on very fast greens should be a particularly useful asset.

In addition to those two, (plus Find Me a 100 Winner selection Davis Love, who is tied with Woods), I'm having two speculative trades on [100.0] chances David Toms and Lucas Glover. Now Firestone is really showing its teeth, its worth paying particular attention to previous course form, as several of the current leading group had previously never looked cut out for this tough test.

Though Toms has struggled on his last two visits, they can be ignored as his game was in turmoil at the time, whereas the former PGA champion is thriving right now having twice finished runner-up in his last five events. Previously, Toms made the top-10 at Firestone three years in succession so clearly he likes the place. He is driving the ball very accurately at the moment; an essential asset with controlled iron shots the key to churning out pars on this course.

And if conditions are going to resemble a US Open, why not back the reigning US Open champion in triple figures? Glover retained his form pretty well after that Bethpage miracle, and has already shown his liking for Firestone having finished fourth at a massive price on his debut in 2006.

Selections:

David Toms @ [100.0]
Lucas Glover @ [100.0]

Already advised

Hunter Mahan @ [28.0]
Zach Johnson @ [28.0]
Davis Love @ [120.0]

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