US PGA Championship / Paul Krishnamurty / 05 August 2008 / 1

There are plenty of markets away from tournament winner at the USPGA. Paul Krishnamurty has rooted through the odds to find the pick of this week's bets.

As Oakland Hills has been significantly re-designed since hosting the 2004 Ryder Cup, there's little point in reading too much into past course form when scouring this week's market. If reports are to believed, we are set for one of the toughest courses in USPGA history, at least since Whistling Straits in 2004. In fact, it sounds more akin to the US Open, with tee to green accuracy essential to greens described as the toughest seen all year.

For this among other reasons, I make Kenny Perry a man to oppose this week. Three-times a winner this summer, Perry was one of the best supported players in the ante post market, matched as low as [30.0]. That support is also a consequence of a very consistent PGA record, in which he's missed only one cut since losing a play-off in 1996.

However, Perry's record in majors played on very fast greens is dire. Third place in the 2003 US Open is his sole top-25 in either that major or the Masters, both of which share many characteristics with this week's expected test. He also struggled badly in 66th place over the weekend at another championship course, Firestone.

I reckon the best way of taking on Perry is in a tournament matchbet with Stewart Cink at [1.9]. Disappointing efforts on his last two starts have cooled my support for Cink a little, but he remains a highly plausible winner. Prior to The Open, he won the Travelers Championship, and had only finished outside the top-20 twice all season. I've felt for some time that Cink was ready to breakthrough in a Major, and he's knocked on the door already this year, when registering third place in the Masters.

Another player who has looked a winner waiting to happen for months is Robert Karlsson, who I fancy to beat Stuart Appleby over 72 holes. Actually, its a minor miracle how Karlsson hasn't won in Europe this year, and his form in the States has been respectable too. Since March, he has made the top-eight in all but two events, where he finished 13th and 20th.

That sort of record would make him a promising match bet selection against anyone, not least an opponent who has never been the most consistent. Appleby owes market favouritism here to Sunday's superb second place, but his majors record suggests he'll have trouble following up. In his last 35 starts in US majors, Appleby has registered just three top-10s.

Apples is just one of a batch of big-name Aussies who could struggle on these greens. Adam Scott, Aaron Baddeley and even consistent Robert Allenby are all worth opposing for this reason, which rather opens up the 'Top Australian' market. At his best, former US Open champ and PGA specialist Geoff Ogilvy would rate a confident bet, but he played terribly at the weekend. Under the circumstances, reliable types Nick O'Hern and Rod Pampling, (also advised in my Find Me a Winner column), look fair value at around [18.0].

O'Hern is probably my favourite single player when it comes to speciality bets. He never wins, rarely goes close, but thanks to an extremely accurate long game, he can nearly always be relied upon to give you a decent run against similarly big-priced opponents. Nick hasn't missed a single cut since April, and has registered two top-10s in his last six events. With his relentless accuracy, the left-hander should at least take up his usual position just off the pace, which makes [15.0] about a top-10 finish a massive price.

Finally, in the same top-10 market, majors specialist Mike Weir looks excellent value at [7.0].

Consider Weir's career stats in the three US majors, all of which look a decent guide to this week's test. In 28 starts, he's made eight top-10s and the same number of top-20s. Clearly if you'd taken [7.0] every time over the years you'd be showing a tasty profit. Furthermore, Weir's accurate long game and brilliant scrambling abilities look very much the order of the day at Oakland Hills.

Selections

Tournament Matchbets: Stewart Cink to beat Kenny Perry; Robert Karlsson to beat Stuart Appleby.

Top Australian: Nick O'Hern @ [18.0]; Rod Pampling @ [18.0]

Top-10 Finish: Mike Weir @ [7.0]; Nick O'Hern @ 15.0

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1. sports | 05 August 2008

   The first PGA Championship was held in 1916 at Siwanoy Country Club in Bronxville, New York. The winner, Jim Barnes, received $500. The 2007 winner, Tiger Woods, earned $1.26 million. The champion is also awarded the Wanamaker Trophy, which was donated by Rodman Wanamaker.

   Initially a match play event, the tournament changed to stroke play in 1958. Network broadcasters, preferring a large group of well-known contenders on the final day, are sometimes accused of pressuring tournament organizers to make the format change.

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