An Australian won the first major of the season and Adam Scott will head their contingent at Merion. Paul Krishnamurty, however, prefers backing a couple of outsiders...
"Matt Goggin...is a player who made the frame in the 2009 Open Championship. Goggin will not win or even contend, but he can certainly make the cut and this market could plausibly be won with merely a top-25 finish."
Australians dominated the Masters leaderboard but it's far less obvious that they'll do so in the season's second major. Naturally their main hope is Augusta hero Adam Scott, but it must be a huge negative that he's never bettered 15th place in more than a decade of trying in the US Open. On the other hand Jason Day has, finishing runner-up on his 2011 debut, but this sometimes wild big-hitter is far from certain to appreciate the lack of room at Merion.
If those two short-priced favourites fail, this market could take very little winning as few of the others have any pedigree at this level, let alone recent form. The normally consistent John Senden has a best finish of just 20th this season, while 2006 champ Geoff Ogilvy has made only two top-40s this season. Aaron Baddeley has missed his last five cuts, Alastair Presnell 10 of his last 12.
Marc Leishman has at least been putting a good run together, and is fair value at around 11.010/1. At twice the price, however, I prefer Marcus Fraser. I see Steve Rawlings has backed Fraser at 610.0609/1 to win the title and, while that is obviously an enormous ask, I know where he's coming from. Putting and scrambling are always very important in this major and Fraser is very proficient in those respects. He can boast plenty of good form, with eight top-six finishes since the beginning of 2012, including second in the Ballantines Championship just three starts ago.
There could also be some mileage in a speculative punt on Matt Goggin at 38.037/1. After all, this is a player who made the frame in the 2009 Open Championship. Granted, it's been a long time since he was noted on a main tour but qualification for this and top-15s in his last two Web.com Tour events represent fair form. Goggin will not win or even contend, but he can certainly make the cut and this market could plausibly be won with merely a top-25 finish.