US Masters / Paul Krishnamurty / 09 April 2010 /

Tiger looks back to his best but many punters remain unconvinced - which means his price is still long enough to provide the rest of us with some decent value, says Paul Krishnamurty.

One would think that, having returned to competitive golf by bettering his previous best Masters first-round score by two shots, we could forget any theories that Tiger Woods would be diminished as a golfer because of his personal problems. The Tiger we saw yesterday was no different from the all-conquering phenomenon we know so well, except perhaps for a cold putter. If he'd got that working, we'd have been looking at a 66 or better.

Yet still the layers are prepared to take him on. As I pointed out on Tuesday, his pre-tournament odds were remarkably generous, and the same arguments still apply. In any previous year, Woods would have been below [2.5] after a 68 start. This time, post media circus, he's [3.9].

This is an excellent value trade in my view. Woods is going to be right in the thick of it over the weekend, probably amongst a small band that separate themselves from the pack. Already, the number of potential winners can be whittled down to little more than a dozen, for a couple of reasons.

First, there's the quality on the first page of the leaderboard. Not only is Tiger looming large, but leading candidates Phil Mickelson are Lee Westwood are just one back and rightly trading in single figures. The likelihood is that at least one of that trio will shoot low tomorrow and up set a formidable halfway position.

Secondly, virtually all recent history at Augusta suggests that catch-up golf is extremely difficult. Weekend leaders have an incredible conversion ratio here, and only great players have recently managed to recover from a slow start. The last three Masters champions were no worse than three shots behind the first round leader. Only Woods and Mickelson have won from more than four shots back this century.

Those stats suggest its unlikely anyone from further back than -2 will win, (those within four shots of first round leader Fred Couples), with the possible exception of class act Ernie Els. 21 players fall into that category, including at least four no-hopers, and another seven who begun the event at more than [200.0]. The book I would love to have is that of my fellow columnist Stephen Rawlings, who is holding great prices on five of the leading group, including Woods and Mickelson https://betting.betfair.com/golf/the-punter/the-punters-picks-for-the-us-masters-070410.html.

Another of his selections is Nick Watney, and I'm jumping on board too now at [30.0]. Watney looked a strong future candidate on both previous Masters attempts, and certainly has the game to stay in touch over the weekend. An early start tomorrow could also offer an advantage, with the greens still receptive after yesterday's rain.

Recommended bets:

Tiger Woods @ [3.9]
Nick Watney @ [30.0]

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