US Masters / Paul Krishnamurty / 06 April 2011 /

Paul Krishnamurty kicks off a tournament of tipping with a look at the first day three-balls where Tiger Woods is one of the players he's opposing

4pts Jerry Kelly @ [2.9] (vs Overton, Villegas) (Starts 13:07)
Usually, the best early punting value in a major can be found by identifying weak players, currently struggling with a key aspect of their game. Those flaws are invariably exposed when confronted with tough championship layouts such as Augusta. One such likely candidate is a man who would have been considered a live candidate only a few months ago, Camilo Villegas. The Colombian is in crisis with the putter, missing five out of seven cuts this year, and must be having nightmares about Augusta's legendary greens.

Given that the third member of this group is out-of-form course debutant Jeff Overton, Jerry Kelly may not need to do anything special to win it. Kelly has a surprisingly solid record at Augusta for a short-hitter, making the top-20 on three of his last four visits. Moreover, with a respectable three top-15s from seven starts this year, he rates by far the most reliable of this trio.

4pts Hunter Mahan @ [2.4] (vs Els, F Molinari) (Starts 15:30)
Another man to oppose on these slick putting surfaces is Ernie Els, whose short game is unrecognisable from the days when he was challenging for this title every year. Els has only bettered 70 once here since 2004, and only made one top-25 in that spell.

That doesn't match up well compared to bang-in-form Hunter Mahan, who has made the last two Masters top-tens. Having taken the eye as a winner-in-waiting recently, Mahan has shortened up accordingly in the outright market. The third man, Francesco Molinari, usually sets a decent standard, but putted appallingly over the weekend and has little Augusta pedigree.

3pts Graeme McDowell @ [2.9] (vs Woods, Allenby) (Starts 15:41)
Old habits die hard, and it seems Tiger Woods will have to fall a lot further before the market writes him off. It is understandable why punters have kept his outright price at a restrictive [12.5], in fear of the unexpected, but I really can't see any sensible justification for taking [2.1] in this competitive three-ball. By his standards, Woods was awful last time at Bay Hill, a course where he'd previously won six times.

Apart from two strangely poor efforts in Florida, Graeme McDowell has been overwhelmingly superior for months compared to Woods, and indeed to almost anyone else in the world. Everybody is entitled to a blip, so it may be worth overlooking those failures, especially as the other member of this group is another from my 'players to oppose at Augusta' list. Robert Allenby's best finish of 22nd, after 11 cracks at the Masters, speaks volumes about his struggles with this course.

5pts Ricky Barnes @ [2.3] (vs Bohn, Watson) (Starts 17:42)
Here's another group that might not take much winning. Not for the first time in recent majors, Tom Watson stole the show on last year's opening day with a magnificent 67, but it was rather out of character with his Augusta efforts since the course was lengthened. Indeed, it is Watson's only round of par or better here since 2002. Jason Bohn has been anonymous this year, with only one well-beaten top-20 in a low-grade affair worth mentioning.

Ricky Barnes rates a solid favourite against this pair, especially given that he opened up both previous Masters attempts with sub-70 rounds. For a non-winner, Barnes has fared surprisingly well in his few majors appearances. In addition to a pair of top-25s here, he was runner-up in the 2009 US Open. The most obvious explanation is Ricky's excellent scrambling skills - a key asset at Augusta.

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