US Masters / Paul Krishnamurty / 06 April 2010 / 1

Paul Krishnamurty identifies four players to back in the first round at Augusta

Starting Time: 13.34
Graeme McDowell @ [2.66] (vs Toms, Senden)

As explained further in my Find Me a 100 Winner column, Graeme McDowell is fancied to go well this week, and looks a strong favourite to win this three-ball against two opponents that are expected to struggle. Whereas McDowell is an excellent putter of fast greens, which contributed to last year's top-20 finish, neither Toms and Senden have impressed in that department recently.

The latter is known as a particularly weak putter, so it was no great surprise to see him miss the cut on his sole previous attempt to crack Augusta's notorious greens. Toms has mixed returns from 11 previous Masters attempts, making the top-10 on three occasions but finishing outside the top-30 in all the other eight. Given that his 2009 form has been uninspiring, with only one top-30 so far, this looks unlikely to be one of his better attempts.

13.45 Nathan Smith @ [5.2] (vs Sabbatini, O'Meara)

One of the best strategies in three-ball betting is to back the outsider of three in weak groups, where the target required is unlikely to be too challenging. So while I must admit to knowing little about Nathan Smith, he could be worth a crack at [5.2] to win this. After all, many amateurs have made the cut before at Augusta, and Smith's +6 tally when qualifying previously was no disaster.

A score of 74 could be good enough to win this, or even higher. Obviously, Sabbatini is the class act here but he is extremely unreliable. His best finish since the first event of the year is just 30th, and his average round total at Augusta is 73.55. Former champion O'Meara looks particularly vulnerable, having missed the last four Masters cuts with an average score of 75.88. Nor does he even challenge very often at Seniors level.

14.07 Tim Clark @ [2.2] (vs Marino, Watson)

Tom Watson may still be capable of rolling back the years at a British Open venue, but as Augusta has been lengthened over the years he's looked out of his depth. Watson has missed his last eight Augusta cuts, and only made one since 1997.

That should turn this three-ball effectively into a match, and as Steve Marino is at a significant disadvantage on his Augusta debut, preference must be for the man with greater course experience. Clark has an impressive Masters record too, finishing 13th or better in three of the last four, including when runner-up to Mickelson in 2006.

16.19 Sandy Lyle @ [8.0] (vs Leonard, Na)

While O'Meara and Watson are unable to compete at Augusta these days, one senior who bucks the trend is Sandy Lyle. As unlikely as it sounds, Sandy has made three consecutive Masters cuts, even making the top-20 last year. The likeliest explanation is that, while he is nothing special at Seniors level, Lyle still drives it long and isn't at a disadvantage against the younger men in that respect.

Again, this group might not take that much winning. For a player of his calibre, Leonard's Augusta record is very ordinary. He hasn't bettered 70 or made a top-ten here this century. Again, due to a lack of power off the tee. As for the promising Na, he's making his course debut on a layout where first-timers rarely thrive. Obviously, Lyle is the outsider of three, but these massive odds must represent at least a bit of trading value.

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1. robbie | 09 April 2010

   Nice picking unlucky old tom rolled back the years it was great to see followed your selections and wanted tom to have a few nice square figures but alas it was not to be

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