US Masters / Paul Krishnamurty / 08 April 2011 /

Paul Krishnamurty has a simple plan for today's three-ball bets while also picking a couple of big priced options in the winner market

Recommended Bets
3pts Charl Schwartzel @ [46.0]
2pts Ryan Moore @ [70.0]
Place order to lay both players 10pts @ [10.0]

Historically, the end of the first day's play at Augusta has been an opportune time to strike. At this early stage, the market is always still very competitive, yet all the statistical trends suggest we can actually narrow the field down to a relatively small number, because Augusta is such a hard course on which to play 'catch-up'. This century, only one Masters winner came from further than five shots back after the first day, and as it was a peak-form Tiger Woods, we can probably write that off as the rare exception.

Those trends have actually been accentuated recently, with none of the last five winners coming from more than three back. There are too many good players in behind to restrict calculations to the six players that fulfil that criteria, but I certainly wouldn't look beyond the 23 players currently on -2 or better. Promisingly, that number includes two of my Find Me A 100 Winner picks Brandt Snedeker and Y E Yang, with the latter already hitting our first lay target to ensure a profit.

A further potential angle today could be to focus on the early starters, who usually enjoy at least a slight scoring advantage. Augusta always gets harder as the day goes on as the greens dry out, and today's forecast is for the wind to get up later. Two plausible outsiders with a golden opportunity to set up a nice weekend position are Charl Schwartzel and Ryan Moore, from the first and fourth groups out respectively. A similar trading strategy to the 100 Winner column is recommended, with a lay order planned for each player at [10.0] to double our money at minimum.


Today's Three-Balls Tips

Lay Rory McIlroy 5pts @ [2.28] (vs Fowler, Day) (Starts 17.42)
Today's three-ball strategy is simple - lay the Rorys! The last time McIlroy led after the opening round of a major was last year's Open, and he followed up by shooting 80. Granted, conditions were extreme at St Andrews that day, but that performance fuelled suspicions that McIlroy is a dodgy front-runner, which have yet to be disproved. He has still only won two professional events, one of which came from well off the pace.

If the pressure of leading the Masters is one reason to lay McIlroy for his three-ball, then the quality of opposition is another. Rickie Fowler and Jason Day are not far behind the Irishman in the prodigy stages, and both performed very respectably yesterday on their Augusta debuts, shooting 70 and 72 respectively after slow starts.

Lay Rory Sabbatini 8pts @ [1.72] (vs Mize, Jeong) (Starts 18.15)
There is a popular theory that Rory Sabbatini is a changed man this year with a much improved attitude, but he has never been one to follow when the chips are down and simply must be opposed here at odds-on. Sabbatini is +2, and facing a battle to make the cut. This is hardly a shock given that he has missed 21 out of 36 cuts in major championships, often by huge margins. These tough layouts rarely suit his impatient style, and by the time he tees off tomorrow evening, the course is unlikely to be offering too many birdies.

Even if the 'new' Rory is up for the fight, it's hard to see why he should be such short odds against two players who both beat him yesterday. Veteran Larry Mize and amateur Jin Jeong may not be candidates for the title, but both are capable of carving out a respectable score, especially the latter who fared so well in last year's Open.

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