US Masters / Paul Krishnamurty / 10 April 2011 /

He hasn't been in this position before and an odds-on lay of Rory McIlroy looks tempting but Paul Krishnamurty isn't having any of it. Here's why Rory can shoot lower than Cabrera and the other best 2-balls of the final day.

Steve Marino (vs Villegas) @ [1.95] (Starts 16.10)

To start Masters Sunday, I'm sticking with one of yesterday's three successful 2-ball picks https://betting.betfair.com/golf/golf-events/us-masters/us-masters-saturday-2-balls-cool-kj-to-outplay-woo-090411.html. Steve Marino is again paired with Camilo Villegas, whom he beat by one shot yesterday. My reasoning is the same - the harder this course gets as the weekend goes on, the less it will suit struggling putter Villegas. The Colombian has been known to let his head go down when all is lost, and it would be no surprise to see him run up a disaster score.

Trevor Immelman (vs Garcia) @ [2.3] (Starts 16.40)

Very similar comments apply here to Garcia, who not for the first time imploded spectacularly yesterday. Approaching the par-five 8th, Garcia was three shots off the lead, but after falling away throughout the easier back nine, he sits 11 shots behind Rory McIlroy. Picking a former Masters champ against this notoriously temperamental player paid dividends with Angel Cabrera yesterday, and Trevor Immelman fits a similar profile here.

Steve Stricker (vs Westwood) @ [2.4] (Starts 18.00)

Another star for whom the back nine proved something of a graveyard last night was Lee Westwood, whose promising position deteriorated as putt after putt failed to find the cup. Lee's Augusta record is ordinary by comparison to other majors, and he could be forgiven for feeling a little downbeat that these tough greens have got the better of him yet again. This could be a long, hot day for Westwood, and with demotivatation a possibility, his world-class opponent could represent a bit of value as the outsider. There are very few if any more consistent, reliable final day picks than Steve Stricker.

Rory McIlroy (vs Cabrera) @ 2.0 (Starts 19.40)

Many punters will doubtless see tonight's round as the ideal opportunity to lay an odds-on favourite, but I won't be amongst them. Augusta has repeatedly proved itself to be a front-runners course, with 19 of the last 20 winners coming from Sunday's final group. More importantly, what possible sign has there been of a McIlroy collapse? In truth, we should be grateful that his putting has been ordinary, because Rory would otherwise be completely out of sight. The majesty of Rory's long game this week has been eerily reminiscent of Tiger Woods, when he won his first Masters title in 1997. We may be witnessing a similar 'changing of the guard'.

McIlroy looks so well suited to this layout, that this may be the last opportunity for several years to back him at even money in a 2-ball there. Having shown no weakness in the 'bottle' department so far, I expect we'll see Rory cruise round today, playing conservatively while others struggle to play catch-up, before maximising the par-fives. I should point out that this doesn't suit my book, having already employed a successful trading strategy on Charl Schwartzel and backed Angel Cabrera at silly prices. If either man is to get close, however, I suspect they will have to shoot low rather than waiting for Rory to flounder. There's been precious little sign of it ever since he hit the front on Thursday.

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