US Masters / Romilly Evans / 05 April 2011 /

Romilly Evans explains why he expects five flaky putters to fire in their first round three-balls and how to go about making some money from his predictions.

They say only a sucker's got a gambling system. That would be me then. But if you'll just bear with me a second, I'll try and explain. If you're playing roulette and it comes up black, the next time you can assuredly take it as red...

Actually, scrap that. But for this week's US Masters at least, you can assuredly take it as read that those who excel at Augusta will be able to handle the humps and cambers of these linoleum-like greens. In short, dodgy putters are an absolute liability here and must be opposed at all costs. But betting rules are made to be broken and I would propose an addendum to this golden maxim: apart from in the first round where they typically prosper.

Permit me to explain. Sure, the putting surfaces of Augusta are enough to reduce a top-ten player to the status of a weekend hacker, if their stroke is not in groove. In fact, so fast are the greens, that invariably the only thing that prevents your ball shooting six feet or more by the cup is the hole itself. Davis Love III once memorably missed a three-footer, which horse-shoed round the hole and span back off the green some 80 feet away. It's the stuff of nightmares. But against that, these are the purest greens golfers tread all year. If you can pick the lines, you will never be more confident of holing out.

And picking the lines in Round One is surprisingly straightforward. The reason, of course, is that those good greenkeeping folk of Georgia like to lull the players into a false sense of security. For in the first round, the flag locations are comfortably at their most benign (i.e. situated in the flattest parts of the green). Sure, come the later rounds, the pins are tucked on or around steep shelves (plus the customary heat speeds them up) which leads to tentative putters getting Amen-cornered.

This is not even a recent trend. Unheralded tour vets like Mike Donald, Jonny Huston and Chris DiMarco (whose putting was so bad he once went crying to 'Calc' to teach him the ungainly "claw" grip) were certainly no Ben Crenshaw. Nevertheless, they all had a marked propensity to perform well over the first 18. In-form putters of course perform well too (Steven Rawlings' solid first-round-leader tip, Justin Rose, for example). Still, it's the marked improvement from aggressively average exponents of the flat stick that really takes my eye.

Just look at last year where Tom Watson (shot a 67) and Sandy Lyle (a 69) were near the top after round one. These two golden oldies can still strike it purely, but their edgy short games should've supposedly counted them out. However, both their challenges soon went south, Lyle even missing the cut after playing like a drunk and barely breaking 90. "I couldn't believe it," the '88 champion explained. "I just lost my rhythm completely. I've been coming here for years but after a year on the seniors' tour, you forget how much quicker the greens get after the first day, particularly in the places they put them. It's a little scary."

Putting is, of course, often the one facet of the game that separates a tournament winner from the also-rans. Driving for show, putting for dough. Or so they say. But in the initial phase of battle at Augusta, it's more of an inverted playing field. So, the other statistics which assist a good performance should instead be prioritised in round one. To my mind then, we should be looking to support big hitters with a high trajectory ball-flight (often hand-in-hand stats), who have been struggling with the putter this season and have performed well here in the first round before.

Throw these three facets into the stats machine (Total driving, poor putts per GIR and previous first round performance) and the computer spits out some interesting names for us to follow in the first-round three-balls and mythical-match markets.

Five to follow in Round One:

Davis Love (to beat Olazabal/Kim) @ [2.0]: the Ryder Cup captain might have one eye on future squad selection, but he's still a gritty competitor who hits the ball a mile (averaging 295 yards off the tee, 30th on Tour). Languishing outside the top 150 in putting, he knows these greens like his own hand and is actually striking the ball well. He's also lit it up early before, albeit a few moons ago.

Sean O'Hair (to beat Fisher/Byrd) @ [3.0]: one of America's finest talents has lost his way of late with a cold flat-stick (186th on Tour in putting average). He can still bomb the ball and usually opens promisingly in his brief history here (a 68 in '09 on his way to a top-ten finish).

Adam Scott (to beat Johnson/Watney) [4.2]: on the way back to fulfilling some of his great early promise. But the putter still holds him back (183rd this term). Opened up with a 69 here last year and has another top-ten to boot.

Sergio Garcia (to beat Atwal/Karlsson) [2.5]: a similar sorry story to Scott (and 138th in putting), but the green shoots of recovery are also showing up for the Spaniard. Loves Augusta, though he's never quite proven it, and before his recent slump went perennially low in Round One (comfortably breaking par in his first four tries as a pro).

Rory McIlroy (to beat Fowler/Day) [2.4]: crushes the ball, despite his diminutive stature (17th longest in Europe), and promises to excel around this track if his occasionally balky putter behaves (111th). Brief Augusta history is as yet unconvincing, but mediocre rounds belie some birdie blitzes. Fresh and injury-free, expect a big opening 18 from McIlroy to fire himself into contention for his first major.

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