US Masters / Paul Krishnamurty / 24 March 2011 /

Before making your Masters bets consider these five punting principles from our golf betting expert Paul Krishnamurty

Back players with plenty of Augusta experience
Of all the major venues, Augusta National is the one that takes the most learning. Plenty of regular visitors still struggle to cope with the incredibly complex greens after a decade or more of trying, and even future champions often struggled on their early attempts. No debutant has won since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979, and no first-timers have made the top-five since 2005. Every champion since Zoeller was making at least their third Masters appearance.

Those stats rather puncture the claims of potential future champions like Rickie Fowler and Jason Day on their debuts. Indeed, despite an ever rising number of 20-something candidates, the Masters remains a tournament best suited to the experienced player. The average age of the last five winners is 35.

Back proven, multiple winners
Another clear signal that Augusta is no place for a novice lies in the fact that all bar two Masters champions since the 1980s had already won at least five titles on either the European or PGA Tours. Tiger Woods had won three times, and Zach Johnson proved a particular exception in 2007 as this was only his second title. However, everything about that particular renewal went against the long-established tournament trends, because the course played very differently. Zach's winning tally was eight shots higher than any other since the 1980s.

If we are to see a 'normal' year, several leading candidates are up against it according to the stats. Rory McIlroy, for instance, has only won twice, and Nick Watney three times.

Back big-hitters and par-five specialists
Augusta famously offers a significant advantage to the longest drivers. The fairways here are very wide, and even missing them doesn't necessarily mean disaster, as the rough is rarely penal. Last year, Phil Mickelson gave a masterclass in how to crack Augusta despite wayward driving. Two places back in third was another wild thing, Anthony Kim.

Power comes particularly into play on the four par-fives, that are pivotal to scoring on a course where red numbers are otherwise rare. Big-hitters like Mickelson and Tiger Woods owe their magnificent Masters records to relentless birdie and eagle accumulation on those four long holes. On the PGA Tour, only Bubba Watson is currently ranked in this season's top-ten for both driving distance and par-five performance. On the European Tour, Rory McIlroy, Paul Casey and Alvaro Quiros all meet both criteria.

The winner will come from Sunday's final group
This is arguably the best-known Masters stat, with 19 of the last 20 champions meeting the criteria of playing in the final two-ball. The exception, once again, was Zach Johnson. Of course in many instances, the leaders in question were separated from most of the pack, but the stat also delivered in the years when there were bunch finishes, like 2003 and 1998. The explanation is undoubtedly that Augusta is a hard course to play 'catch-up'. Chasing pins on Sunday here is fraught with danger.

Avoid the Aussies!
Despite Greg Norman's best efforts, no Australian has ever won the Masters and recent renewals offered few hints of any change in fortunes. The only Aussies to have even registered a top-five finish this century were Mark Hensby and Rod Pampling, who shared a distant fifth place in 2005. One man particularly worth taking on in match bets and 3-balls is Robert Allenby. This otherwise consistent, prolific winner has never made the top-20 in eleven tries.

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