US Masters / Steven Rawlings / 10 April 2011 / 1

It's judgement day for Rory as he heads an international leaderboard into day four. Can he get the job done?

11:40- April 10, 2011

I can't help feeling a bit flat after yesterday's third round. What had looked set to be a cracking tight affair could well have turned into anything but. Rory McIlroy enters tonight's final round with a four-shot lead and it's his event to lose now but how did that happen? It looked so tight at halfway. A collective flop by the chasers and a decent third round from Rory is the answer. Remarkably, of his ten closest pursuers through 36 holes, only KJ Choi broke par! Woods, Ogilvy, Westwood and Fowler, to name but a few, all fluffed their lines last night and we have a very different leaderboard to ponder this morning.

Rory will partner 2009 champ Angel Cabrera and the stats tell us that one of them will win. 19 of the last 20 Masters winners have played in Sunday's final paring.

In the penultimate two-ball Choi will partner Charl Schwartzel (both tied for 2nd on -8) and before them we have the Aussie pair of Day (-8) and Adam Scott (-7) and England's Luke Donald (-7) will partner the best performing American, Bo Van Pelt (-6). Nobody else is within seven shots of McIlroy.

Normal logic would suggest that even if McIlroy flops nobody any further back can win, but this year just doesn't feel like a normal year and I wouldn't put anyone off having a speculative bet on someone a long way back. A strategy I would rarely advocate at Augusta.

McIlroy's class isn't in doubt and if he wins he'll be the 2nd youngest winner of all time. Woods was just a few months younger than Rory is now when he won in 1997 so he's in illustrious and select company indeed. He will also achieve the very rare feat of leading all the way. There's no doubting his performance to date, he's been just about flawless and he will win multiple majors, but given that he's trading at below [1.8] we have to ask whether he's quite ready for his first one just yet? I'm not convinced that he is and I think he's worth opposing.

Even though he's been helped considerably by his closest rivals, he's surprised me greatly so far. Rory's usually very shaky in contention and I've been expecting a collapse all week. Maybe we won't get one and part of me hopes we won't. If he does foul-up tonight it will take some getting over but I have to forget about how Rory will feel and concentrate on who can capitalise should there be a crash.

After three relaxed days playing with Jason Day, today will be a very different kettle of fish. I can't see Cabrera too willing to chat and Cordoba's finest is onside with me now. I took [17.0] about the former champ last night, once I knew he'd be in the final pairing.

I already have Choi onside and if Rory flops I think he's the most likely to come through. He's playing great golf tee to green and I can see him nudging it round in one or two under again tonight and that may well be enough.

Day has to overcome his inexperience but I think he has more chance than his playing partner Scott and certainly no less of a chance than Donald or Schwartzel. But in all honesty, I'm not that keen on any of them. I can see this bunch of four doing what the closest halfway pursuers did and I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised to see all of them shoot over par. And I can't have Bo Van Pelt on my mind either.

As I'm not keen on that lot, it doesn't make much sense to lay Rory. Instead I'm happy to have Choi, Cabrera and Ogilvy (currently on -5) onside, and I've also added Bubba Watson (also on -5) at a massive [120.0] this morning. He broke 70 for the first time in his career at Augusta with his impressive 67 yesterday and he's perfectly capable of going even lower.

I'll be back tomorrow with my Tournament De-Brief.

10:45- April 9, 2011

After an utterly intriguing second day's play it's mouth-wateringly poised at halfway and I can't wait to see how things develop tonight. Leading by two on -10, Rory McIlroy's iron-play has been almost immaculate but his putting certainly hasn't and multiple missed opportunities yesterday have meant he hasn't opened up the considerable lead he perhaps should.

Rory will tee-off this evening (19.45) in the days final two-ball alongside Jason Day, who on -8 trails him by two. When interviewed last night McIlroy was delighted that he would again play with Day. They're clearly good pals and it's fair to say they've enjoyed each-others company so far this week, having played together for the first two days.

Considering this is his first visit to Augusta, Day's performance yesterday was incredible and his eight under par 64 is the best of the week so far but quite what he'll do today is anyone's guess. It's never easy to back up a low round and if Day's going to win he has to overcome two huge stats. Fuzzy Zoeller, back in 1979, is the only debutant to have won and no Aussie golfer has ever won.

If those two are comfortable playing together, what about the penultimate two-ball? After looking out of the reckoning, Tiger Woods blasted seven birdies in his last 11 holes last night and he'll line-up alongside KJ Choi. The pair tee-off at 19.35 UK time, having both reached a halfway score of -7 and having both played alongside each other for all four rounds last year. Day and McIlroy may feel comfortable together but so will these two but what can we expect from them?

Choi played very much like McIlroy over the first two days, setting up numerous opportunities but missing plenty of them and what can I say about Woods? It was a vintage display yesterday. Controlled, calculated and highly impressive but where did it come from and can it last? I'm very tempted by the [4.4] on offer right now but I'm going to hold off. Was that just a flash in the pan last night?

Ten minutes before Choi and Woods take to the stage, Alvaro Quiros tees off alongside yesterday's sole in-running play, Geoff Ogilvy. Both are on -6.

I took [15.0] about Ogilvy after he'd finished his round and before Woods' charge. He too has to overcome the no Aussie hoodoo but he has already won a major, a significant plus according to the stats.

Given how hard it is to make up ground at Augusta, I'd have assumed that the winner would come from that top-6 most years but I don't feel that here. Lurking just below them is a plethora of top-class players and a move from any of those on -5 and -4 could see a big change.

As absorbing as it was yesterday, it was far from great from my books point of view. Most of my picks had an early tee-time yesterday and most of them were disappointing. Phil Mickelson is simply not the Phil Mickelson of last week and his level par 72 sees him too far back with too many quality players in front of him. He needs a miracle now quite frankly.

Having added Ogilvy, I've now got three of the top-six onside and with both Couples and Yang on -5, five of the top-11, so despite Lefty's disappointing effort I'm certainly not out of it. I've been really tempted to back Woods this morning but I'm going to leave him for now. I'm concerned yesterday's brilliance was a one-off and I think it's worth holding fire for now. I will be monitoring him very closely tonight though and I may well get him onside at some stage.

09:25- April 8, 2011

If you went to bed early last night you missed a bit of drama. Over £9,000 was matched at the minimum odds in the First Round Leader market on young Rory McIlroy, who'd posted his brilliant seven under par 65 hours before midnight.

There had been an earlier scare for McIlroy backers, who'd taken a low of [1.05] about him leading after day one, when one of my picks, and one of Paul's Find Me A 100 Winner picks, Y E Yang, drew level with him with two holes to play, but the Korean bogeyed 17 and 18 and they must have thought they'd had a lucky escape.

With the scare seemingly over, the price on Rory hit the minimum but if Yang had given Rory backers a fright, Alvaro Quiros provided them with a horror story...

The Spaniard had never bettered 75 around Augusta before but it was his day yesterday. He drove well, putted very well and his two birdies to finish the day saw him match Rory, better his previous best round here by a massive ten shots, and ruin the day for those who thought they'd availed themselves of a bit of 'free money'.

There were disappointments form my squad, Anthony Kim being the biggest, shooting +1, but on the whole it was a very good start. Six of my 10 pre-event picks are among the 30 players under-par after day one and I'm pleased enough.

My Korean picks, Choi and Yang, are sitting tied third, two shots off the lead, Trevor Immelman's most definitely in the hunt after shooting three under and Phil Mickelson did ok too, despite a disappointing final hole bogey. His two under par 70 sees him safely in touch, and on day one that's the number one objective. As the old adage goes, you can't win the event on Thursday but you can certainly lose it, especially here. You need to be up with the early pace and, even at this stage, I'd be inclined to discount those that failed to break par yesterday.

I placed two in-running bets, taking [380.0] about Gregory Havret, after he'd shot 70, and [28.0] about Alvaro after he'd bogeyed the 14th hole. Alvaro's a favourite of mine and his huge hitting and touch around the greens make him an ideal candidate for Augusta but his current form and previous course record were off putting before the start.

I missed the bigger prices early on, fearing a stumble after the turn but one wasn't forthcoming. Holes 10, 11 and 12 are three of the four hardest on the course and if Alvaro was going to slip up I felt this would be the stretch of holes to catch him out. He birdied 10 and parred 11 and 12 and then birdied the easy 13th. I'd nearly pulled the trigger at around [22.0] after the 12th but one of my picks, Justin Rose, had just double-bogeyed the 13th and it spooked me a bit so I thought I'd let Alvaro get that hole out of the way. I figured a birdie there was probably just about factored into his price anyway. It wasn't.

After he'd birdied the hole he dropped right down to around [16.0] and I was ruing letting him go but two minutes later I was thanking my lucky stars! After a poor tee-shot on 14, he hit a tree with his approach shot and drifted right out again. When he managed to get up-and-down for bogey I jumped in at [28.0] and his finish was a huge bonus.

McIlroy's now favourite but we've been here before. He led the field a merry dance at St Andrews last July after day one before coming down to earth with a bang and I see no appeal whatsoever in him at this stage. Lefty's challenging him for favouritism and rightly so. He drove poorly yesterday and I'm slightly worried he might get frustrated today if the birdies don't come early but he should be heading the market.

Of the 30 players under par, the last player listed is Tiger Woods (now trading as third favourite). It would be foolish to write him off but his putting is not what it was and although his first round 71 was better than many of his first round efforts here, he's not for me.

I'll back again in the morning, after the cut.

Pre-Event Picks:

Phil Mickelson @ an average of just over [14.5]
Justin Rose @ [40.0]
KJ Choi @ [80.0]
Anthony Kim @ an average of just under [90.0]
YE Yang @ [120.0]
Rory Sabbatini @ [160.0]
Trevor Immelman @ [170.0]
Fred Couples @ [240.0]
Miguel Angel Jimenez @ [280.0]
Jerry Kelly @ [500.0]

In-Running Bets

Gregory Havret @ [380.0] - End of round one
Alvaro Quiros @ [28.0] - During round one
Geoff Ogilvy @ [15.0] - End of round two
Angel Cabrera @ [17.0] - End of round three
Bubba Watson @ [120.0] - End of round three

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

(1)

1. Anonymous | 08 April 2011

   Couples coming good and your picks doing really well keep it up Steve!

:

:

:

?

: