US Masters / The Betfair Contrarian / 24 March 2010 /

The Betfair Contrarian explains why the world's greatest golfer is set for a glorious return and why backing the favourite can sometimes be the most contrary position of all.

The Contrarian considers himself the scourge of the favourites and, as a result, there are few occasions where he would ever contemplate backing one. The US Masters is one event where a rethink is justified though because Tiger Woods is back from his media-appeasing period of self-scrutiny and available at the unusually high price (for him) of [5.6] to claim major number 15. Here's why you'd be a fool not to take advantage...

Woods is easily the best golfer in the world

It's very rare for the Contrarian to admit this but, for once, the odds really do tell the whole story. Despite an absence that will have lasted almost four months once the Masters gets underway, Woods is the red hot favourite. The closest contender, Phil Mickelson, [10.5] is about twice the price and understandably too, as he hasn't won a major in four years. A dozen other golfers are priced at [50.0] or less to win and between them they have claimed 12 majors. Woods alone has won 14.

He's the master of the Masters

Of the four majors, its the Masters where Woods has the best record. It was the first one that he won in 1997 at the tender age of 21 and he's added three more titles since, a tally that he's only equalled at the PGA Championship. He's also secured ten top-10 finishes at Augusta, compared to eight at the PGA, while he's finished in the top six on eight of his last 10 appearances at the curtain-raising major.

His practise form has earned rave reviews...

With no recent tournaments to judge Woods on, it's instead necessary to analyse his performance in practice for the Masters, and the only available evidence is overwhelmingly encouraging. John Cook, a friend who played with him last week, was adamant that based on what he's seen, Woods was the overwhelming favourite heading into next month's event:
"From what I saw the last three days of ball striking, I don't see anybody hit the ball like he does. If he takes that game up there, I don't see anybody beating him."

...and he's supposedly calm despite the storm

Another player who joined Woods on the course, Arjun Atwal, was equally full of praise and believed that the world number one wasn't feeling any added pressure because of the media backlash against him: "He is very chilled out. When he's out with us, you can see he's more at peace right now. I think he's doing all the right things. He's also hitting it longer than before, there's no doubt. He's killing it, absolutely killing it. If he gets that putter going at all, he'll probably win."

There's no standout challenger

2009 wasn't great for Woods, even before his personal life became front page news, as for only the third time in 11 years, he failed to win a major. However, even though he struggled, the world's other top golfers weren't capable of capitalising and threatening his standing as the sports dominant force. There were four different major winners, three of them first-time champions, while the victors of the first three all failed to finish in the top 50 at the next one. Padraig Harrington, who excelled in Woods absence in 2008, claiming the Open and the PGA Championship, disappointed at the four big events last year, while just Mickelson and Lucas Glover recorded top-five finishes at more than one. That lack of consistency among the top challengers suggests that only a huge outsider can stop the four-time Masters king, as was the case with the triumphs of Zach Johnson (2007) and Trevor Immelman (2008).

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