US Masters / Paul Krishnamurty / 07 February 2011 / 1

On current form Tiger Woods would be a [50.0] shot for the Masters but memories of past Masters ensure he holds up as the [5.8] favourite - and that's crazy, argues Paul Krishnamurty

With just two months to go before the first major of the season, it's time to perform the annual task of sifting through the early value, trying to spot the bandwagons expected to gather pace. Never underestimate how quickly sentiment can change in golf betting, and how dramatic the market moves can be, offering great opportunities for punters ahead of the curve. Somebody shrewd, for instance, has already bagged [30.0] about Martin Kaymer, before the world number two's odds were slashed by over a third into [19.0].

The first thing to strike me, as it has every time he's teed it up in recent months, is the ridiculously short odds about Tiger Woods, who despite everything, is trading at just [5.8] for a fifth Masters title. I argued a couple of weeks ago that there was no evidence that Tiger was back to his best, and a heavy defeat on his favourite Torrey Pines layout offered nothing to disprove that theory. I was surprised his Augusta odds didn't drift as a consequence. How many times can Tiger fail on his comeback before supporters lose faith?

Presumably, there is an assumption built into the price that at some point in the forthcoming weeks, Tiger will win and signal a return to the glory days. Perhaps his odds might shorten under those circumstances, but it would take something very special to convince me. Of course he might win soon, although there is scant reason to think he will. Would one victory really make the difference anyway? In order to justify such short odds, Tiger needs to demonstrate that he is once again head and shoulders above the rest of his peers. That patently is not the case right now. If it were possible to erase our memories of Tiger's glory days and focus on his post-scandal golf, he'd be at best a [50.0] chance.

To some extent, the same argument applies to Phil Mickelson. Phil is of course the defending champion, although beyond Augusta he barely contended all season. It makes little sense to take single figures about a player who hasn't won for ten months, although at least in Mickelson's case, he did contend strongly at Torrey Pines, suggesting a return to peak form was imminent.

The reason behind these skinny quotes is, of course, Tiger and Phil's awesome Masters records. Between them, they have seven titles and a remarkable 18 top-five finishes. It is undeniable that despite the elite opposition, the Masters represents a better chance than normal for both men. Especially Phil, who often points out how much this layout suits him, thanks to the extra room off the tee.

These quotes, however, give the impression that nothing has changed in the past year, when it clearly has. Remember it's only a few months since the big weekly story was whether Phil would overtake Tiger as world number one. Yet last week, the narrative was about two different players battling for that same honour, Lee Westwood and Kaymer. Do either Woods or Mickelson really deserve to be less than half the odds of players who have overtaken them?

I'm not convinced they do, and the value argument holds even less weight the further one looks down the rankings. Westwood and Kaymer are respected, for sure, but they too are only marginally superior to the chasing pack. Two players particularly stand out as improving fast enough to gatecrash that battle for top spot, and still under-estimated by the market.

With four wins and 11 top-fives from his last 18 events, plus a starring role in the Ryder Cup, Graeme McDowell has legitimate claims to be the hottest player on the planet right now. As US Open champion, he has proven his mettle in the pressure-cooker of a major. Odds of [34.0] for Augusta do not reflect his improvement, and will surely not be around if Gmac wins again beforehand.

At number five in the rankings, McDowell is close enough to be challenging for the top spot before long, and the same applies to the man one place below, Paul Casey. With four top-20s from six Masters efforts to date, and the power-game for Augusta, Casey will already be on many shortlists. He's already won this year, and will doubtless be looking forward to the World Matchplay in three weeks time, having reached the last two finals. Keep an eye out for his price crash if Paul goes well there, or anywhere else for that matter.

Recommended US Masters Bets:
Graeme McDowell @ [34.0]
Paul Casey @ [36.0]

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

(1)

1. Neil | 08 February 2011

   I wouldn't touch Tiger with a barge poll. Since his lay off he's not shown he can do it. At least with Lefty we've seen him out of form and then win around Augusta. Two strong performances in the past two weeks tells me that Lefty's game is right there.

   Lefty should tee off as favourite and at 8.4 is actually a very good price for someone who has won three green jackets in the past six years and has always shown that his game is raised by the Augusta National.

   Last tip is Fred Couples at 290. He has the perfect Augusta game and if he has a good first round he will contend - again.

:

:

:

?

: