US Masters / Paul Krishnamurty / 15 April 2008 /

Paul Krishnamurty reflects on the Masters and its implications for a range of long-term markets

So after all the hype, the gamble was foiled and Tiger's Grand Slam bid fell at the first hurdle. Before pundits start looking for flaws and explanations though, let's get this into perspective. Tiger Woods finished an excellent second place on a great course playing at its hardest against the very best. No shame in that, and for anyone else it would have represented a fine tournament.

I actually felt he was unlucky. Unlucky in that Immelman set such a stiff target, and held so many key putts. And perhaps a little unlucky not to have holed a couple more putts himself over the week. On the back-nine alone, Tiger uncharacteristicaly missed at least three short-putts that arguably cost him victory. Not that anyone could really use luck as an excuse - especially when talking about a man who has won many titles on the back of unlikely huge putts or chip-ins.

But Tiger has different standards and expectations, not least because he was prepared to casually define an unprecedented slam as perfectly possible, just another four tournaments at the right time. And doubtless now, a reverse bandwagon might develop some momentum, with after-timers saying what a great lay Woods was at those short odds. We'll see. I expect Woods will win his next event, though in a few weeks he could well be beaten again at Sawgrass, a course where he's only ever won once.

Its important to see the bigger picture, and look ahead to the bet I've already described as the best punt of 2008 - Tiger to win the US Open at his favourite venue, Torrey Pines. If he'd won the Masters, there would now be widespread speculation that Tiger would start that event at odds-on. Rightfully so in my view. Now though, layers will want a repeat of their stress-free Augusta experience and ensure the price holds up around the current [2.5] range. Despite getting my fingers burnt at the weekend, I will be happy to go in again at those odds.

The money list markets were largely unmoved by the Masters results. Phil Mickelson remains a rock-solid [2.0] favourite in the US money list without Tiger market, but Europe looks much more interesting.

Officially a European Tour player, Immelman's win catapulted him from nowhere to the top of the Order Of Merit. He's a virtually implausible winner of this long-term market though, as he won't play enough events this side of the Atlantic. Henrik Stenson, less than 100,000 Euros behind, remains the 'real' front-runner here, though there's an awful long way to go.

Since I advised Stenson at [7.4], his price has shortened to 5.4. I'm now going to have a further bet on the market on Padraig Harrington at [11.0], after he confirmed his good form with fifth place at Augusta. Harrington has only once finished outside the top-three in the Order of Merit since 2001, and that was during a season where his schedule was severely curtailed. It seems certain that he will be high up the money list again, and he makes more appeal than any of his highly-rated, yet still under-achieving Ryder Cup companions. He's got half a million Euros to find on Stenson, which sounds a lot but taken over the whole season is just a fifth of the amount the winner will need to make from here on.

And what of those Europeans? Throughout the first couple of days, with Rose, Casey, Westwood and Poulter bang in contention, there were numerous references in BBC interviews to a return of the days when 'Brits were exchanging Green Jackets every year'. It seemed a tad optimistic then - having not won a Major since 1999, surely we'd settle for just the one for now? And so it proved as they all fell away before the back nine on Sunday. The only European representation in the top-10 came from never in contention fast-finishers Harrington, Jiminez and Karlsson.

It doesn't bode well for the Ryder Cup, where Europe have now drifted to [2.3]. Nor does the fact that captain Nick Faldo could be facing a frustrating dilemma over the use of his two wildcards. Donald, Casey, Garcia and Montgomerie are all some way outside the qualifying mark, though again there is much time left.

In contrast, Faldo's US counterpart, Paul Azinger, has almost a free hand with four wildcards at his disposal. Looking through their current points list, the US team now look to have a strong blend of youth with the likes of Snedeker and O'Hair plus the ability to ensure there are enough wise old hands in the team via the captain's picks. It pains me to say this, as I've never opposed Europe in a Ryder Cup, but right now the US look the bet at [2.0] with home advantage.

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