US Masters / Paul Krishnamurty / 30 March 2010 /

Punters are sweet on Ernie Els' Augusta chances after two wins this year but they've gone too far now, says Paul Krishnamurty. Just take a look at his recent record at the Masters

One of the great things about gambling on sport (as opposed to allegedly safer investments) is that every so often you don't mind losing. That's a feeling I've become used to in recent weeks, as my all-time favourite sportsman has won back-to-back elite PGA Tour events, carrying my cash on neither occasion.

It is slightly galling in so far as I did back Ernie Els for the event preceding the first of those wins, at a course he knows particularly well as he lives nearby. Els' performance that week in the Honda Classic was terrible, offering no hint of the stunning return to form to follow. That's the beauty of golf, I suppose. All it can take is one good shot, or putting stroke, and a player can suddenly click. On the greens, Els has suddenly become unrecognisable from his shaky former self.

Predictably enough, the markets have reacted. Previously way down the list at [60.0], Ernie has been matched as low as [12.5] to win his first Masters, and fourth major title. He is now challenging Phil Mickelson for second favouritism. Once again, while I will be cheering the Big Easy all the way, that price is of absolutely no interest.

Of course he has a chance. Besides the obvious exception of Tiger Woods, there is no better player of tough major courses. His record this century of twenty top-10s in majors, including nine top-3s, is equal to Mickelson, and well ahead of anyone else. Much of that is due to Ernie's majestic scrambling skills, an essential asset at Augusta. Moreover, he probably deserves a Green Jacket having twice finished runner-up before.

However, those great Augusta performances came before the problems of recent years, particularly on the greens. Once upon a time Ernie was a nerveless putter, but until the past month he'd repeatedly struggled to hole enough to be competitive. He looked a new man in this regard at Doral and Bay Hill, but Augusta will be a completely different animal.

Putting is probably more important at Augusta than any other major venue, given the speed and complexities of those famous greens. It is no coincidence that, since this area of his game deteriorated, Ernie's results in the Masters have been awful. His best finish in the last five years was just 27th, and he's missed the last three cuts. Ernie's record in this major is now markedly inferior to the other three.

Nevertheless, it's important to think about the longer-term picture here. Right now, Ernie is flavour of the month and the markets are over-reacting. Were he to fail at Augusta, that enthusiasm will cool and better value may become available. If Ernie really is back to his best, he has plenty of reason to feel confident about the other three majors given the venues. He's previously been runner-up to Tiger at the US and British Open venues of Pebble Beach and St Andrews, and was only beaten by a shot in fourth when the USPGA was last held at Whistling Straits.

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