Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 06 May 2008 /

Paul Krishnamurty on the betting ahead of the 'fifth major'...

As Sawgrass hosts its 27th Players' Championship, the debate persists as to whether the 'Fifth Major' deserves to have its status elevated to parity with the other four. For somebody like me, who never watched golf before 1980 and is unconcerned by its alleged lack of 'history', there's no question. This is one of the very best events of the year with the strongest field, at least the equal of the USPGA Championship, and best of all it's played on my favourite American course.

Few courses if any create as much visual excitement as Sawgrass, where virtually every hole offers either a birdie opportunity or potential triple bogey and worse. And when it comes to exciting finishes and the wild betting swings they cause, there's no rival.

The island par-three 17th is one of the most famous 'disaster holes' in the world, but the 16th and 18th produce equally volatile results. The former is a reachable par-five surrounded by water where anything between three and eight is plausible. And the final hole is a very tough, long par-four with water all the way down the left and very much in-play for first and second shots. There is no better course for dramatic in-running fluctuations - for example in 2005 at least ten different players took the lead at some stage over the final two days, with Fred Funk coming out on top after trading at enormous odds.

Sawgrass also usually represents a good week to employ the old 'horses for courses' betting strategy. Previous course form is essential knowledge in all tournaments, but more so here than most. The reason is that most players who don't get on with a particular venue would choose to avoid playing it every year. But with the sole exception of Augusta, this is the one annual fixture that is prestigious enough to ensure they all come back year after year. Furthermore, Sawgrass is a particular type of course that some just never get along with and struggle to even compliment, (Ernie Els has said he hates it, for instance).

Consequently there are numerous, well over a dozen, players in the top-30 in the betting that have no positive course record to speak of. For instance, consider the Sawgrass records of the following big-names - Justin Rose has never finished better than 39th, Aaron Baddeley's best is 37th. Still, their records are better than Rory Sabbatini, who has yet to make the top-40 in eight attempts. Yet their odds across a wide variety of markets must inevitably factor in that, over the longer run, they remain highly respected candidates.

Nor is it just a particular attacking type of middle-ranking player that suffers at Sawgrass, some of the very best have endured a nightmare. Though he's not here this week, this is one of the very few weeks of the year where Tiger can be opposed with a strong degree of confidence. Still even if one career win on a course is a failure by his standards, at least he has won this title. As mentioned above, Ernie Els hates the course and has never finished better than eighth. His compatriot Retief Goosen has just one top-10 here in his career. Even the long, ultra-consistent careers of Jim Furyk and Vijay Singh have produced just five top-10s between them, with both yet to land a Players' Championship title.

Other likely strugglers this week include Stuart Appleby and Mike Weir, who have yet to make a single top-10 between them in over 20 attempts. US Open champion Angel Cabrera has never made the top-25 at Sawgrass, and Masters hero Trevor Immelman has missed the cut on both his visits.

My strategy this week, then, will be to take on this bunch of persistent Sawgrass failures across a range of markets. Obviously you aren't going to get rich laying these guys at big odds in the outright market, but they're considerably shorter in the top-five and top-10 markets where they've consistently failed over the years. Equally, I'll be taking them on in three-balls, and a couple of tournament matchbets also take the eye.

Baddeley is paired with his compatriot Robert Allenby, who in contrast has produced some of his best golf at Sawgrass and looks booked for another high finish if maintaining his excellent recent long-game form. Allenby represents good value at around [1.9] in this match, and at the same odds Luke Donald should do the business against Justin Rose. On recent efforts, Rose is unlikely to be making a big improvement this year on that dire course record. Alternatively, fellow Englishman Donald has finished runner-up here before and tends to be competitive on courses like this that reward relentless accuracy.

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