Golf Events / Editor / 08 May 2007 /

Canada's Stephen Ames will find things very different when he steps on to the first tee on Thursday to defend his title as Tournament Players Champion at the legendary Pete Dye-designed Sawgrass venue in Florida.

Ames was an astounding big-priced winner of the unofficial 'fifth major' last season, when he bucked the trend of final-day high scores with a superb 67 to eventually win the title by six shots from Retief Goosen, with playing partner Vijay Singh slumping to a 77 and a tie for eighth.

But this year's tournament is different in a number of ways, most importantly due to its timing in the PGA Tour calendar as it has been moved from its traditional late March date to this early May slot to fit in better with other FedEx Cup events and keep it a bit further away from the Masters.

And the new era starts on a course that has been made even tougher, with players set to face one of the hardest tests of the season, even if it hadn't been before. Although the course has only been lengthened by just over 120 yards to 7,200 it is invisible changes to the naked eye that will make most difference to scoring conditions.

Course officials completely stripped away the organic matter under the course to put in a new drainage system and put in 27,000 tons of sand in order to make looking after the course more efficient and drainage much quicker in the sometimes freak Florida weather.

They have also placed a new drainage system on the greens and in essence made the whole course much faster than it usually was during March tournaments, much more like the courses famously toughened up by the USGA for the US Open each year.

Tournament organisers have also replaced the rough with Bermuda grass and changed (albeit slightly) the grass used on the greens, as well as making a few changes to the dynamic of the greens, including flattening out parts of the famous island 17th green to enable them to put in an even tougher final day pin placement.

But the changes have not stopped the world's leading players coming out to try and win their share of the $8million on offer this week, and it should make for one of the most intriguing TPC events in its 34-year history with 48 of the world's top 50 in attendance.

Although the changes will affect the dynamic of the course somewhat, it is hard to imagine them having too much affect on the leading players in the field, most of whom have reasonable, if unspectacular, past records at Sawgrass.

Unsurprisingly Tiger Woods holds the leading money record at the event with over $2.2million won in his nine visits, although Betfair punters considering a bet on the world number one should remember that he has not enjoyed a top-10 finish here since securing his only TPC win in 2001 - he is quoted as the 3.8 favourite in the win market.

Woods has shot only two rounds under-par in the last two years at Sawgrass in finishing T53 and T22, but you have to counter those results with current form if making a true analysis of the game's one true superstar.

He made it nine wins from his last 12 events last weekend at the Wachovia Championship but still missed too many fairways to make him any kind of certainty at the available odds - he ranks 163rd overall in driving accuracy, and with landing areas having been narrowed this week, and run expected to increase, he could find plenty of rough over the four days.

A look back at the records suggests this has been a tough place for the leading players to win, with the likes of Ames, Hal Sutton, Fred Funk and Craig Perks all proving to be shock winners over the last seven years, while Phil Mickelson, Ernie Els, Singh and Goosen all still chase their maiden TPC win.

Mickelson in particular has struggled with the unique demands of Sawgrass, with just two top 10 finishes in 13 attempts, although he was one of few players ever to have managed four under-par rounds in the same event when taking a tie for third back in 2004.

His switch to the coaching methods of Butch Harmon appeared to pay immediate dividends when he chased home Woods in third last week at Quail Hollow, but whether that is enough to make him a decent proposition at 15.5 second favourite this week is another matter as he has not looked the same player he was before falling to pieces in last year's US Open.

Mickelson is also the 5.5 favourite in the market to be the top US player without Woods, and that could well be a little better value with the leading American players having a tough time this season - Jim Furyk, who has two top four finishes in his last three Sawgrass visits provides the biggest danger at 14 in a market that has yet to really develop.

It is no real shock to see Singh at the top of the Rest of the World field at 3.75 on the back of three top 14 performances in the last three years. The big-hitting Fijian was in pole position to win here last season until his final day meltdown and he also has another second on his resume from 2001.

Singh is also a double winner in 2007, and has only finished outside the top 30 on two of his 13 outings this season while making every cut, becoming probably the second most reliable option in the field behind Woods - he is 20 in the win market, and prices will also be available for him nearer time to make the cut.

Els is much like Mickelson in his Sawgrass history as he has yet to break into the top seven in his 13 efforts, but he has been extremely consistent with eight of those tournaments seeing him break into the top 20, with five of his last eight rounds under-par, but his form has been patchy in 2007 and the tie for 34th in the Wachovia was not hugely encouraging.

Those leading four players also make up a team in one of Betfair's unique markets for the TPC, and can be backed at 2.28 as a group to win the event between them against 'the field' at 1.61 if you fancy having 140 players running for you in an event littered with shock winners.

Outside that group, Goosen would have to bear consideration at 34 outright despite a very inconsistent record here. The South African has finished in the top 12 in both of the last two seasons, with seven of his eight rounds under-par, but he made the cut in only one of his other six visits.

Adam Scott, the 2004 champion, also looks like a contender at 34 but could be one for the in-play punters among you as he has tended to perform better in the first two rounds of the tournament. He was among the leaders at halfway last season before going 82-76 to finish 53rd and did similar in 2005 as well when his 69-68-73-73 line saw him into eighth place as defending champion.

Ames would also be worth a look at 85 on a course that clearly suits his game well, but the streaky putter will need to stay hot on the greens again if he is to become the first player in the tournament's history to successfully defend his title. He also finished second, and was very unlucky not to win, when Perks chipped in twice to land the title in 2002 and has two other top-20 finishes since then as well.

But what about the European challenge? Well, there has not been a European winner here since Sandy Lyle in 1987, but if there is to be one this time, both Padraig Harrington and Henrik Stenson would seem to be the leading hopes.

Harrington (42) has been second twice in the past four seasons, but since shooting 67 to open the 2005 TPC he has shot five rounds of 14-over and missed the cut last year, so Stenson, who finished in a tie for third last year on debut could prove the better bet at 55. The Swede has risen all the way to No 6 in the world and won the WGC-World Matchplay earlier this season for what could prove to be a breakthrough victory.

The pair are also two of the three joint favourites in the top European market at 6.4 along with Luke Donald, who has one joint second-placed finish on his resume to go with three missed cuts.

If you are looking for an outsider to have some fun with, Steve Stricker is certainly worth a look at 90 despite not having a glowing record at Sawgrass since the turn of the millennium. The sweet putting Wisconsin native has been in the wilderness for some years now, but has four top 10 finishes this season and did finish sixth when he was at the height of his powers back in 1999 - his consistency could come in handy this week.

And it would be unwise to leave 130 shot Ken Duke out of the equation as well. The 2006 Nationwide Tour champion has made an incredible return to form over the last four weeks with four top 10 finishes after missing four of his first seven cuts, climbing to 21st in the FedEx Cup standings - he also lies 10th in the vital all-around rankings on the PGA Tour and should hit enough greens in regulation this week to be competitive.

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